Monday, June 6, 2011

Final Cumulative Mock Draft Board and Final Cumulative Draft Ranking Board

Draft day is finally here and lots of draft experts have put out up-to-date mock drafts and draft rankings over the weekend. All of the 10 mock drafts used for the chart below and the 4 draft prospect rankings are up-to-date. For the last version of the cumulative mock draft board look at this post.

I'm going to look at the Mock Draft Board first. I will point out new trends and news as well as most mocked picks for the Rays. Afterwards I'm going to take a deep look at the Rankings Board. There I will look at the difference a player is ranked and mocked. I will look at the chance of each player to be available with the Rays 1st round picks according to the mocks. And I will look at cumulative percentage that the players up to a certain rank will be available with the Rays 1st round picks.

The final cumulative mock draft board:

For the final cumulative draft board I have used 10 of the 12 (by me) known top draft sources around (Only the subscription required up-to-date Keith Law and Perfect Game mocks are not included):
Overall 74 prospects were selected in at least one of these mock drafts. All of them can be seen in the table below.

(Click at the table for a larger view)

Here are some tidbits from the cumulative mock board:
  1. The selections for the 1st Rays pick (1-24): Jose Fernandez (3), Robert Stephenson (2), Kolten Wong (2), Javier Baez (1), Mike Mahtook (1) and Joe Ross (1). As Kevin and I said lots of times before, we wouldn't select a pitcher with the first Rays pick if not clearly the best player on the board. Wong, Baez and Mahtook would be excellent picks. Of the pitchers I like all of them. I just think that similar pitchers will be available later on.
  2. The selections for the 2nd and 3rd Rays pick (1-31/32): Henry Owens (3), Brian Goodwin (3), Brandon Nimmo (2), Dan Vogelbach (2), Kolten Wong (1), C.J. Cron (1), Blake Swihart (1), Levi Michael (1), Dillon Howard (1), Austin Hedges (1), Hudson Boyd (1), Jorge Lopez (1), Chris Reed (1) and Nick Burdi (1). Lots of high upside prep pitchers. Of them I would love the Rays to snag Owens (with 31/32), Howard (supp), Boyd (supp) and Lopez (supp). Obviously I love the Nimmo, Wong and Cron picks. I'm not a very big fan of Brian Goodwin, though. Dan Vogelbach would be excellent for the Rays especially if the can't get C.J. Cron. I'd hope for him in the supplemental round, though.
  3. At the top of the draft the rumors are that Gerrit Cole will be the 1st overall pick. If not (other possibilities: Dan Hultzen and Anthony Rendon) he seems to fall to the Royals at 5. The Mariners are in on a position player (Rendon, Lindor, Starling) with Cole as a possibility as well. The Diamondbacks love Danny Hultzen (1st choice) and Trevor Bauer (2nd choice). The Orioles are more and more linked to Dylan Bundy. The Royals would love for Gerrit Cole to fall. If not, Trevor Bauer is the most common choice. The Nationals are heavily in on Bubba Starling and the Diamondbacks are more and more linked to Francisco Lindor (while a college pitcher is still a likely possibility as well).
  4. Overdrafts could happen at 1-10 (Padres linked to Spangenberg), 1-11 (Astros are rumored - while denying it - of having a pre-draft deal with Chris Reed) and 1-16 (Dodgers have budget constraints).
  5. Josh Bell and Blake Swihart are falling on more and more draft boards as their bonus demands seem to be really high. Tyler Anderson was a bit more inconsistent in May and therefore he seems to fall a bit (while still being a 1st round pick). John Stilson is falling very far due to his injury. Daniel Norris is also falling as his upside lacks a bit behind the top of the prep ranks.
  6. Some late risers include Sean Gilmartin and C.J. Cron. Gilmartin could snag into the 1st round with the Reds (1-27) and Twins (1-30) potentielly interested. Cron is more and more linked to the Rockies (1-20) as the best power college bat available.
The final cumulative draft rankings:

Overall a total of 167 players have been ranked in the top prospect lists I've considered. These
lists are:
On the left side you can see the cumulative board (click on the table for larger view). So ... what can we read out of this table?
  1. The top 14 players highest likely won't fall to the Rays.
  2. With a 60% chance, though, the Rays can snag a top 15 talent.
  3. Some more numbers: The chance to get one of Norris, Guerrieri, Baez and Mahtook with 24 is nearly 50% (0 with 31). The chance to get one of Kolten Wong and C.J. Cron is 65% with 24 and 28% with 31/32. Most draft experts have Brandon Nimmo being available with the 31st pick. Would you pass on him with 24 because of that?
  4. Kevin is completely right: If C.J. Cron is available at 24, the Rays can take the gamble and wait for him to fall to 31 (I see only the Twins being interested in him ... but he is no typical Twins pick either). Kolten Wong on the other side is more likely to be available with 24 but higher likely to be gone with 31.
  5. Jose Fernandez (very surprising as his bonus demands don't seem to be high), Josh Bell (due to bonus demands) and Tyler Anderson (see comment on Jose Fernandez) are the highest ranked players with a decent chance of falling to the Rays. Josh Bell could even fall to the Rays 2nd pick (or further) due to his bonus demands. Short tidbit: Some teams seemed to having offered 6-7 mio. and he still says that he wants to go to college.
  6. Daniel Norris, Josh Bell, Blake Swihart, Dillon Howard, Austin Hedges and Jackie Bradley Jr. are some 1st round candidates who are ranked much higher than they are mocked. Overall it can be said that high demand guys and hurt players (Bradley, Susac, Purke) are ranked much higher than they are mocked.
  7. On the flip side Javier Baez, Mike Mahtook, Robert Stephenson, Kolten Wong, C.J. Cron, Cory Spangenberg and Levi Michael are rumored to be taken much earlier than their talent level suggests (according to the rankings).
I wish you guys all the fun in the world with the draft and the live draft coverage here at RaysProspects. Lets spend some money and select top talents Andrew, Stu and R.J..

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