Saturday, June 4, 2011

Dream Draft - Who I'd Take

Following in BurGi's footsteps, here are the players I'd look for at each spot. Of course, a true "dream draft" would have an unlimited budget and draft the Josh Bell and Tyler Beede-types. This is sort of a realistic best-case scenario, in my opinion:

1st round/#24
  • Top three choices: Brandon Nimmo (HS OF), Kolten Wong (COL 2B), C.J. Cron (COL 1B). I'd be zeroing in on those three guys and in that order. That's because even though I like Cron better than Wong, I would take Wong here (if Nimmo was off the board) because Cron has a better chance at lasting to pick #31. Cron's bat-only style may turn off some National League teams because there's no DH fallback if they don't like his defense. And of the six picks between #24 and #31, only two American League teams pick: Boston and Minnesota. Boston will likely be looking to make a splash with their pick, like Blake Swihart or Josh Bell, and Cron doesn't fit Minnesota's draft profile at all. They like athletes and strike-throwing pitchers. And while teams don't draft for need, the four NL teams that pick appear to have long-term 1B solutions in the majors or on the cusp: Anthony Rizzo (SD), Joey Votto (Cincy), Freedie Freeman (Atlanta), and Brandon Belt (SF).
  • The only reason all three of those players would be off the board is if teams waited on taking pitching. In that case I'd take the best of the arms available, whoever that might be (Daniel Norris?)
  • Perfect World Pick: Brandon Nimmo. It'll take an over-slot bonus but I believe in his tools. Will he get to #24? He should,
1st round/#31 & 32
  • As stated above, I would take C.J. Cron with one of these picks if he does in fact fall to here. If Nimmo was the pick at #24 and Cron and Kolten Wong were somehow both on the board here, I don't know if it would be automatic to take both. Cron, yes, but I'd take a long look at the remaining pitching vs. Wong. I don't forsee Wong making it (whereas I can see Cron here), though, so I won't consider that a real possibility
  • So, then, I'm plumbing the pitching depths. The top high school and pitching talent is of course gone, but we're still looking at some very nice options: High schoolers Henry Owens, Jose Fernandez, Jose Ross, and Robert Stephenson may be available (not all of them, of course) as well as collegians Josh Osich and Tyler Anderson. I wouldn't be too upset with any of them, really, though Osich might be a bit of a reach. Stephenson is my favorite by a hair, and since we're dreaming...
  • Perfect World Picks: C.J. Cron and Robert Stephenson
Supplemental 1st round/#38, 41, & 42
  • Assuming I draft Nimmo and plan to pay over-slot, I'm probably not looking at any guys here who have slipped because of bonus demands: Tyler Beede, Matt Purke, Derek Fisher to name three. If I hadn't gotten Cron, I might be more interested in Dan Vogelbach here, but two bat-only 1B in the first six picks wouldn't be great.
  • High school hitters who might be in play with these picks: Granden Goetzman is an athletic outfielder with good make-up, so it's almost too easy to envision the Rays taking him; Dwight Smith Jr., son of the former big-leaguer with the same name, could also make sense if he's not looking for a big bonus.
  • I'd also be looking at some college bats like Alex Dickerson and Kes Carter. Can't take a high-ceiling over-slot guy with every pick, though Carter has solid tools across the board.
  • There should be some solid college pitching remaining. Coastal Carolina's Anthony Meo has gotten some helium lately and as BurGi mentioned could even be in the mix at the back-end of the first round. Kent State's Andrew Chafin's came back strong from Tommy John surgery but may have been worked too much, too quickly and his stuff is down a little bit from it's peak.
  • And lastly, the high school pitching: Dillon Maples might be the top talent remaining, but probably due to bonus demands. Hudson Boyd is a big, strong pitcher at 6-3/235 and has workhorse potential. Puerto Rico's best prospect, Jorge Lopez, could still be available.
  • Of course, with three picks I can't take a guy from each category. I'm not quite as high on Anthony Meo as some others, so I'll skip the college pitching for now.
  • Perfect World Picks: Granden Goetzman, Kes Carter, Hudson Boyd
Supplemental 1st round/#52, 56, 59 & 60
  • This is where I'd look for Dan Vogelbach, the high school first baseman. His calling card is his power, but it's legit. He's a below-average runner and fielder, so his bat will definitely have to carry him. He's also gotten some late helium, even going to the Rays at #32 in Kevin Goldstein's latest mock, but rumors of an over-slot bonus may scare some teams off.
  • By now it's a lot of simply guessing which players might be available. This area is a bit of a weak spot for college pitching, but I think it's a good idea to draft a quick, sure slot signee in this range, whether it's a solid-not-spectacular starter like Charlie Lowell or Noe Ramirez, or a reliever like Adam Conley (I see him as a reliever) or Chris Marlowe.
  • This also might be the spot to gamble a little bit on a high schooler with a strong-ish college commitment. Not necessarily the Bell/Beede types, but someone like Bryan Brickhouse (The Woodlands HS in Texas, pitcher) or Carl Thomore (East Brunswick, NJ high school; not going to a big college but to a JuCo to rebuild his value from a down senior year).
  • Or some up-the-middle talent like Connor Barron, Tyler Greene (shortstops) or Johnny Eierman (centerfielder). And of course, anyone from the above categories who fell.
  • Perfect World Picks: Dan Vogelbach, Charlie Lowell, Connor Barron, Jorge Lopez
Second round/#75 & 89
  • More of the same here.
  • Perfect World Picks: Carl Thomore and Adam Conley
And Beyond/119, 149, 179, etc. (some guys I like)
  • Blake Snell, LHP, HS: Because it wouldn't be a Rays draft without a guy from Washington
  • Amir Garrett, LHP, HS: He's also a basketball prospect committed to St. John's. Might be a tough sign but big upside
  • Josh Tobias, 2B, HS: He's got a similar profile to that of Ryan Brett last season. On the smaller nice with good speed and hitting ability.
  • Brian Anderson, SS, HS: A better defender than hitter right now, but he's got the size to grow into a better hitter.
  • Zach Cone, OF, COL: Generally the raw, toolsy guys are high schoolers, but Cone is the exception. His tools could get him into the top two rounds, but his shortcomings, including well below-average plate discipline, may cause him to slide.
  • Blake Treinen, RHP, COL: He's much more raw arm strength than refined pitcher at age 22, having moved from an NAIA school to Arkansas to South Dakota State since 2007.


  1. Kes Carter would be a popular pick in Bowling Green since he plays for WKU which is located in B.G. I've watched him play for three years and he is a good player with a lot of upside.

  2. Yep, Micheal Compton tweeted if that was the same kid, and it is. Somehow twitter swallowed my return twit to him... It says LHP/OF, is he strictly looked at as an OF for the draft?

  3. I don't think Carter has ever pitched for WKU.