Friday, July 16, 2010

Renegades Offense Isn't The Problem

There have been quite a few comments around here lately about the Hudson Valley Renegades early season struggles, mostly blaming the offense. They are off to an 11-15 start, the worst record in the Rays organization, and in last place in the McNamara Division. But the offense isn't the problem. Here are the Rays affiliates sorted by runs scored per game:
Tm             R/G   AB   R   H  2B 3B HR  SB CS  BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
Durham        5.51 3143 501 867 191 13 97 100 24 354 662 .276 .354 .437 .791
VSL Rays      5.35 1590 262 410  79 13 21  74 37 208 277 .258 .359 .364 .722
DSL Rays      5.00 1271 200 313  61 14  7  63 27 162 291 .246 .347 .333 .680
Hudson Valley 4.42  891 115 215  54  6  9  40 11  78 196 .241 .316 .346 .662
Montgomery    4.21 2932 375 734 130 29 49  61 26 311 614 .250 .327 .365 .692
Bowling Green 4.09 2951 364 760 143 25 43 150 52 275 631 .258 .328 .367 .695
Charlotte     4.08 2984 367 769 150 31 48  76 31 290 552 .258 .330 .377 .707
GCL Rays      3.73  746  82 164  33  6  9  21 12  67 185 .220 .294 .316 .610
Princeton     3.13  755  72 159  38  4  7  20 17  60 187 .211 .279 .299 .578
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 7/16/2010.

Not everyone is hitting well, but overall the Renegades 4.42 runs per game is second among the Rays U.S.-based affiliates. The problem is the pitching, here are the affiliates by ERA:
Tm             W   L W-L%   ERA   G     IP  WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
Princeton     10  13 .435  2.43  23  207.2 1.161 7.9  0.3  2.5  7.2  2.88
Charlotte     52  38 .578  3.00  90  788.2 1.194 7.9  0.3  2.9  8.8  3.06
Durham        55  36 .604  3.47  91  804.1 1.286 8.4  0.7  3.2  7.2  2.28
DSL Rays      22  18 .550  3.50  40  339.1 1.459 8.7  0.3  4.5  6.5  1.46
GCL Rays      10  12 .455  3.54  22  203.2 1.306 8.4  0.3  3.3  6.0  1.81
VSL Rays      26  23 .531  3.57  49  421.1 1.327 8.4  0.6  3.5  6.4  1.81
Montgomery    50  39 .562  3.59  89  780.0 1.365 8.9  0.7  3.4  7.9  2.35
Bowling Green 41  48 .461  3.95  89  772.1 1.319 8.3  0.7  3.6  8.4  2.34
Hudson Valley 11  15 .423  4.71  26  231.1 1.418 9.4  0.7  3.4  7.4  2.18
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 7/16/2010.

Also note, the affiliate with the 2nd worst record, the Princeton Rays, has the exact opposite problem, great pitching and no offense. Back to the Renegades pitching, 8 of the 15 pitchers who have appeared for the Gades are doing okay, but the other 7 (by ERA, see below) have pitched a lot more innings, leading to the high team ERA:
                    Age   ERA  G GS    IP  WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
Austin Hubbard       22  0.00  7  0   9.2 0.931  3.7  0.0  4.7 11.2  2.40
Jacob Thompson       20  0.00  3  0   7.0 1.143  5.1  0.0  5.1 11.6  2.25
Kenneth Kelly        21  0.00  2  0   4.1 0.462  4.2  0.0  0.0 14.5    ~~
Adam Liberatore*     23  1.59  5  0   5.2 2.294 11.1  0.0  9.5 12.7  1.33
Nate Garcia          22  2.41  7  3  18.2 1.179  6.3  0.5  4.3  5.3  1.22
Steve Hiscock        22  3.07  7  0  14.2 0.955  6.1  0.6  2.5 11.0  4.50
Robert Dickmann*     23  3.77  6  2  14.1 1.186  7.5  0.6  3.1  6.3  2.00
Wilmer Almonte       20  3.86  5  5  23.1 1.371 10.0  1.2  2.3  6.2  2.67
Omar Bencomo         21  4.91  6  2  22.0 0.909  6.5  1.6  1.6  9.0  5.50
Miguel Sierra        21  4.97  6  5  25.1 1.697 12.4  0.4  2.8  5.3  1.88
Devin Fuller         21  6.11  6  6  28.0 1.250 10.3  1.3  1.0  7.1  7.33
Julius Dettrich*     21  6.35  6  3  22.2 1.765 10.3  0.0  5.6  3.6  0.64
Kyle Ayers           20  7.30  5  0  12.1 2.108 14.6  0.7  4.4  7.3  1.67
Hunter Hill          21  8.38  7  0   9.2 1.759 11.2  0.0  4.7  7.4  1.60
Kevin Chavez         21  9.22  6  0  13.2 2.195 14.5  1.3  5.3  8.6  1.63
15 Players         21.2  4.71 26 26 231.1 1.418  9.4  0.7  3.4  7.4  2.18
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 7/16/2010.

The starting pitching is what is hurting the Renegades. The eight pitchers (down through Almonte) with respectable sub-4.00 ERA's have made a combined 10 starts (with 5 by Almonte who has the highest ERA of the 8), and the bottom 7 have made 16 starts.

Sierra is an unknown still, at least to me, but Fuller should be fine going forward. I like Dettrich too, but those walk and strikeout rates are awful so far. Lots of high home run per 9 rates on the list, especially Omar Bencomo, who has great strikeout and walk rates and hasn't allowed many hits. Amazingly, 25% (4 HR out of 16 hits total) of the hits Bencomo has allowed have gone over the wall. That can't last.

The Renegades are only 5.5 games out of first. Expect Fuller, Dettrich and Bencomo to improve quite a bit in the next few weeks and the Gades to move up in the standings. And more help is on the way. In case you missed the link in the comments, Sean T. McMann of the Poughkeepsie Journal has a great article about Jake Thompson, they Rays 2nd round pick in the June draft out of Long Beach State. He'll being making his first professional start on Saturday. Now lets just hope that offense keeps producing.

2 comments:

  1. I agree the pitching has been very streaky. There have been numerous games when even after the starting pitching puts them in a hole. The bats resrespond only to watch the pitchers put them bebjbehind again.

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  2. I agree with the streakyness of the pitching, too, but I still think the offense/defense of the position players is a major part of the problem. Hudson Valley doesn't seem to know how to get players home. Our highesst outfielder is bating .213. The other 2 ae below .200.
    Last night Wilmer Almonte pitched 8 innings and did a fabulous job. Kyle Ayers came in and should have ended the game, but our right fielder dropped the ball- thus negating the 3rd out. Williamsport went ahead. Then in the bottom of the inning, Elias Otero was left standing on base for the tieing run, but 3 out later we lost.

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