Friday, July 30, 2010

Matt Moore, In A Historical Context

Last season, Matt Moore pitched 123 innings for Bowling Green with a K/9 of 12.9. This season with Charlotte, he's at 111 innings and a K/9 of 12.4 K/9. Here's a list, going back to 1990, of pitchers who have pitched at least 100 innings with a K/9 of 12 or better. Arbitrary? You betcha! In fact, in 2004, Chuck Tiffany pitched 99 2/3 innings with a 12.7 K/9 but doesn't make the list. Sorry, Chuck. In 2003, Scott Kazmir was over 100 innings with an 11.9 K/9.
Year Player               Age    Level     IP   K/9
2009 Matt Moore 20 A 123.0 12.9
2009 Ben Hornbeck 21 A/A+/AA 116.1 12.3
2009 Christian Friedrich 21 A/A+ 119.2 12.0
2007 Clay Buchholz 22 AA/AAA 125.1 12.3
2007 Clayton Kershaw 19 A/AA 122.0 12.0
2006 Rich Hill* 26 AAA 100.0 12.2
2005 Rich Hill* 25 A/AA/AAA 130.2 13.4
2004 Adam Bostick 21 A 114.0 12.9
2004 Yusmeiro Petit 19 A/A+/AA 139.1 12.9
2003 Cole Hamels 19 A/A+ 101.0 13.1
2001 Josh Beckett 21 A+/AA 140.0 13.0
2001 Jake Peavy 20 A+/AA 133.1 12.7
2001 Nick Neugebauer 20 AA/AAA 130.2 12.1
2001 Erik Bedard 22 A+ 102.1 12.0
2001 Boof Bonser 20 A 134.0 12.0
2000 Ryan Anderson 20 AAA 104.0 12.6
2000 Ben Howard 21 A+ 107.1 12.6
2000 Nick Neugebauer 19 A+/AA 128.0 12.2
1999 Rick Ankiel* 19 AA/AAA 137.2 12.7
1999 Tim Redding 21 A 105.0 12.1
1998 A.J. Burnett 21 A 119.0 14.1
1998 Rick Ankiel 19 A/A+ 161.0 12.4
1998 Ryan Anderson 18 A 111.1 12.3
1996 Mike Villano 24 A/A+ 100.0 12.6
1994 Billy Wagner 22 A 153.0 12.0
1993 Tim Davis 22 A/A+ 108.1 12.0
*Major league data not included
Four players to appear twice, as Moore could possibly do: Rich Hill, who was 25 and 26 years old for his seasons. Nick Neugebauer and Ryan Anderson, who were among the game's premier prospects before succumbing to arm problems(for Neugebauer, rotator cuff surgery, for Anderson, his labrum). And Rick Ankiel, who was the game's best prospect. For fun, let's narrow it down a bit futher and make the cutoff 120 innings, which Moore will almost assuredly get to this season:
Year Player               Age    Level     IP   K/9
2009 Matt Moore 20 A 123.0 12.9
2007 Clay Buchholz 22 AA/AAA 125.1 12.3
2007 Clayton Kershaw 19 A/AA 122.0 12.0
2005 Rich Hill 25 A/AA/AAA 130.2 13.4
2004 Yusmeiro Petit 19 A/A+/AA 139.1 12.9
2001 Josh Beckett 21 A+/AA 140.0 13.0
2001 Jake Peavy 20 A+/AA 133.1 12.7
2001 Nick Neugebauer 20 AA/AAA 130.2 12.1
2001 Boof Bonser 20 A 134.0 12.0
2000 Nick Neugebauer 19 A+/AA 128.0 12.2
1999 Rick Ankiel* 19 AA/AAA 137.2 12.7
1998 Rick Ankiel 19 A/A+ 161.0 12.4
1994 Billy Wagner 22 A 153.0 12.0
*Major league data not included

Now it's down to Neugebauer and Ankiel who have done it twice. As for the others: Clayton Kershaw and Clay Buchholz are among the game's top young pitchers. Rich Hill relied mainly on his knockout curveball, kind of like Matt Moore, but Moore's fastball has more juice. Yusmeiro Petit and Boof Bonser relied more on pitchability and location than pure stuff to get the job done. Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy, and Billy Wagner all went on to very successful major-league careers.

So if Moore were to finish the season with, say, a 12.4 K/9, he would join Rick Ankiel as the only player of the last 20 years to twice post minor league seasons of at least 120 innings pitched with a K/9 of 12.4 or better in each. Now, the caveats: Ankiel did it younger, significantly younger, and with better control of his pitches. This list also excludes pitchers who were so good they were called up to the majors before they had a chance to put up such numbers in the minors(three names who would be slam-dunks: Mark Prior, Pedro Martinez, and Stephen Strasburg, plus Josh Beckett would've been a good candidate to do it twice).

Still, it's clear that the sentence "Matt Moore is striking out batters at a historical rate" is not an exaggeration.

5 comments:

  1. Matt Moore is beast. I can't believe some people would take Barnese over him. Give me a break.

    BTW, what do you think of Beckham now. pretty impressive month.

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  2. Yes, nice to see Tim waking up, actually almost all of the Crabs waking up.

    I really like Moore and have seen him pitch 3 times now. He has a year or two to go but he can really dominate a game - but seems to always have an inning or two where he gets flustered.

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  3. I cant believe Matt Moore isnt in the big leagues yet. Whats up with that?

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  4. my boys love watching Matt Moore pitch and think he is an awesome pitcher.

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  5. Matt Moore is a beast
    keep piling up those K's

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