Wednesday, August 11, 2010

How The Rays 2008 Draft Picks Are Doing

The Rays had an interesting draft in 2008, headlined by first overall pick Tim Beckham. They signed an impressive 26 of their first 28 picks, only failing to sign #15 Brandon Meredith and #21 Ryan Carpenter, both high school selections. Of their last 22 picks they only signed 2, #34 Matt Long and #35 Jamie Bagley.

Of course, many of the players who signed have since been released. Here are the position players still in the organization in 2010, sorted by OPS:
Player             Rd Age  Tm  AB  H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
Ty Morrison       4th  19 BWG 354 83 16 12  6 42  6 30 107 .234 .305 .398  .703
Tim Beckham       1st  20 CHA 372 93 18  4  5 19 11 50 100 .250 .343 .360  .703
Anthony Scelfo    8th  23 CHA 243 56 14  3  4  2  2 23  61 .230 .297 .362  .660
Michael Sheridan  5th  22 CHA 323 81 13  3  2  3  1 26  28 .251 .310 .328  .638
Brian Bryles     12th  20 HDV  99 21  3  1  0  9  2 14  31 .212 .313 .263  .576
Jake Jefferies    3rd  22 CHA 297 63 12  2  0  1  1 23  35 .212 .283 .266  .549
Matthew Hall     10th  23 CHA 229 41  9  3  1  4  0 10  58 .179 .222 .258  .480
And here are the pitchers, sorted by ERA:
Pitcher           Rd Age      Tm W  L   ERA  G GS SV    IP  WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Matt Gorgen     16th  23     MTG 3  2  1.93 35  0 19  42.0 1.190  6.4  0.4  4.3  8.6
Tommy Rafferty  28th  25     CHA 3  1  2.14 13  0  0  21.0 0.905  4.3  0.9  3.9  6.0
Marquis Fleming 24th  23     CHA 3  0  2.45 31  0  3  55.0 1.091  5.7  0.2  4.1 11.8
Neil Schenk     23rd  24     CHA 2  2  2.65 35  0  0  54.1 1.344  9.3  0.3  2.8 12.1
Shane Dyer       6th  22 CHA/BWG 7 10  2.81 21 21  0 125.0 1.152  8.5  0.4  1.9  7.5
Michael Jarman  26th  25     CHA 3  3  3.39 35  1  2  61.0 1.180  7.5  0.3  3.1  8.7
Josh Satow      25th  24 CHA/MTG 5  3  3.67 38  0  9  56.1 1.331  8.1  0.5  3.8  9.7
Kyle Lobstein    2nd  20     BWG 7  5  4.44 22 22  0 119.2 1.362  9.0  1.0  3.2  7.4
Jason McEachern 13th  19     BWG 4 10  5.27 22 22  0 114.1 1.566 10.7  1.6  3.4  6.9
Bradley Furdal  11th  19     PRI 0  2  8.22  6  0  0   7.2 1.565  9.4  2.3  4.7  3.5


  1. A lot is said about how great our scouting and ownership is, but this draft is the biggest mistake this ownership has made and will probably be tough to top. The fact that Buster Posey, Alvarez or Smoak is not batting behind Longoria is the reason the Rays are not in first place with a lead of at least 5 games. Huge Huge Huge error on their part. Next was letting Hamilton walk for nothing, then letting Cantu walk for nothing and then trading Talbot for nothing. That's my 1,2,3,4 in order bone head moves by this organization.

  2. Morrison is only 19 and Beckham 20, so lots of time. The rest of the hitters I don't see as MLB shots.

    Several good relievers, a couple (Gorgen and Satow?) may make it (Rafferty and Furdal are released but I left them on since they pitched this season). Dyer has come back well this year and Lobstein and McEachern are also very young.

    This class is going to need a high % of hits from the remaining guys to not look like a bad draft. Basically what's left is potential and relief pitchers.

    Hamilton was a special case, I don't blame them for not adding him to the 40-man. The team put up with enough with him for years, and how likely was it he would become what he is? Now would I love to have him? Hell yes. But I'm not going to jump the org over that decision. And, he could go poof any minute, remember the incident at a bar this spring?

    Talbot was going to be released at the end of ST and everyone knew it, so we got what we could. Hard to blame the org for having too much pitching talent. I'd rather have the Rays talent than the Indians (and many other teams) who have room for Talbot. Now, giving Shoppach a 2-year deal (2010:$2.25M, 2011:$3M, 2012:$3.2M club option ($0.3M buyout)) when the Indians were going to cut bait, that I don't agree with.

    And I really don't care about Cantu.

  3. When the Shoppach trade was made, many of us here in Cleveland thought it was the Rays who were making out. Kelly was a pretty good player for the Tribe and showed nice pop in his bat. Now that I have seen Mitch Talbot, it looks like the Indians got the better of it but none of us thought it at the time.

    A lot of this stuff is hit and miss or luck if you will. Tampa has had some luck go their way but like any organization, they have had some clunkers too. Carl Pavano has had a nice past couple of years but he was a hindsight 20/20 bust for the Yankees. What makes the Yankess different from almost all other organizations is that their bad decisions do not affect their bottom line.

    For cost-conscious teams like the Rays and Indians, one bad decision can cripple the franchise.

    A good example is with the Indians. They signed Travis Haffner to a long term deal and everyone in Cleveland lauded the deal as he was one of the top power hitters in the AL. Ever since that signing, he has gone in the tank for one reason or another and it has cost the Indians dearly. I believe the best small-market model out there is the Minnesota Twins. Somehow, they convinced Joe Mauer to take 50 million dollars less than he would have gotten from the Yankees. They are excellent at developing their own talent. The past several years, the Rays have been right there with them.

  4. I agree Daniel on the Talbot-Shoppach trade. Talk radio in NE Ohio was outraged (he hit 21 HR's in 2008!!!) and even on boards like indiansprospectinsider (Talbot's never pitched in the majors, overrated) where they were mad they didn't Joseph Cruz.

    Along the lines of Hamilton, I'm waiting for people to start regretting the Delmon Young trade.

    Agree on the Rays, Indians, Twins points also (remember when Shapiro was rated as one of the top GMs?). The difference is the competition the Rays face make mistakes even more deadly. Not that the Indians and Twins don't have some worries with Detroit and Chicago able to spend more, but nothing like NYY/BOS spending.

  5. Rafferty is no longer playing as he retired earlier in the season, and Furdal was recently released so it looks like the list has gone down yet again.

  6. I am glad Talbot is on the Indians. We would have realeased him, so we din't lose the trade. We didn't win it, but we didn't lose it.

  7. Doug - That's a little harsh on the position players not named Beckham or Morrison. A similar analysis done on the 2005 draft last year would have shown Henry Wrigley with at around .250/.350/.600 (BA/SLG/OPS), and look how he has blossomed this year at age 23 (he just turned 24). These guys have only had about 1000 professional PA's, if that - it's too soon, IMO, to render any kind of judgment, positive or negative.

  8. I'm not that down on Sheridan and Jefferies, like the BB to K ratios. Sheridan I think is the toughest to strikeout in the entire FSL and is great defensively, which is exactly what we expected when he was drafted. But since he's limited to 1B, we also expected his power to develope, and it hasn't. The FSL is a pitchers league with low HR numbers, but Sheridan will have to show more power next year.

    On Wrigley, I'm just not sold yet that this season is his true talent level. In 5 seasons, this is the first he has hit above a .250 avg, a .301 OBP, a .390 SLG, a .676 OPS, or 10 HRs. It's been a great year, but when you have 4 years that are about the same and one that stands out, even though it's the most recent and at the highest level, I'm not convinced he's this good. And he's cooled off a bit since going to Montgomery across the board (OBP only .307).

    Don't get me wrong, I hope it's not a fluke. We need more good position prospects, at least ones old enough to buy a beer!

    Glad you brought up the 2005 draft too. It was before the current ownership/GM took over in late 2005, so I wasn't planning on reviewing it. But it stunk. Of the 50 picks only 3 are left: #14 Wrigley, #4 Jeremy Hellickson, and #10 John Matulia. And it's not like we traded some of the other picks for something, all retired/released by my memory. Other than Hellickson, an awful draft.

  9. Doug - thanks for replying. I agree on all your points re: Sheridan and Wrigley. Jefferies is a total mystery to me, given his history and talent. I'm not an expert, but I've seen it in other sports where guys are given up on too soon. Sometimes it's situational, other times the light just seems to come on. I'm just preaching patience with Jefferies and Sheridan - they have shown glimmers, it may just be a matter of time before each breaks out. Wrigley shows that patience can pay off, even if he has tailed off some of late.

  10. I'd love to be able to keep all of our players and give them tons of time to develope. But reality is there are only so many roster spots, even with the additions of GCL and VSL in recent years. And every year we add drafted players, NDFAs, international signings, minor league free agents, etc. For every new body someone has to go pretty much. So there is always pressure to perform now or you are gone.

    And to develope players, they need playing time, only so many at bats and innings. So guys who might blossom with some patience get pushed to the bench and then released if they don't produce so that other players can get their time. It's even tougher for a guy like Sheridan who came in already stuck at 1B. Guys ahead of him blocking him, guys coming up from below trying to get his job. Compared to someone like Beckham, who has the flexibility to move to 2B/3B/OF if he's gets pushed off SS. Lots of roster spots available to Beckham, but Sheridan is stuck.

  11. Shawn Smith in extended spring training?

  12. Someone said this spring that Smith wouldn't pitch in any games this year, I think 'personal reasons' was cited. Not sure if he's in Pt. Charlotte or SoCal.