Sunday, June 6, 2010

Rays Draft History and WAR - Part 3

RaysProspects.com
In Part 3 lets take a look at how the Rays have done in the draft round by round. Should we even worry about the Rays later round picks? Have any of them ever made a difference at the major league level?

A few things to remember when comparing picks over the years. Not every 1st round pick is the same, in 2009 for example we had the 30th pick, compared to the 1st overall the previous two years. So LeVon Washington was essentially a 2nd round pick in the 2007-8 drafts. Also, changes in the CBA over the years have added additional compensation picks for lost free agents and unsigned picks, and taken away picks for signing free agents. So I guess what I'm saying is not all Xth round picks are equal.

Despite the differences, here are how the Rays draftees have performed at the major league level by WAR from 1996 to 2009. And again, the same caveats about WAR and my methodology apply here as in Parts 1 and 2.

1st Round
Total WAR: 32.7
Picks: 13
Reached MLB: 9, 69%
Best by WAR: Evan Longoria (2006, 10.4 WAR)

2nd Round
Total WAR: 20.1
Picks: 12
Reached MLB: 6, 50%
Best by WAR: Carl Crawford (1999, 21.3 WAR)

3rd Round
Total WAR: -0.2
Picks: 12
Reached MLB: 4, 33%
Best by WAR: Elijah Dukes (2002, 2.5 WAR)

4th Round
Total WAR: 4.8
Picks: 13
Reached MLB: 5, 38%
Best by WAR: David Bush (2001, 5.7 WAR)

5th Round
Total WAR: 8.4
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 4, 28%
Best by WAR: Aubrey Huff (1998, 9.4 WAR)

6th Round
Total WAR: -1.1
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 2, 14%
Best by WAR: Cesar Ramos (2002, 0.2 WAR)

7th Round
Total WAR: -1.3
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 2, 14%
Best by WAR: Fernando Perez (2004, 0.6 WAR)

8th Round
Total WAR: 6.4
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 3, 21%
Best by WAR: Joe Kennedy (1998, 6.1 WAR)

9th Round
Total WAR: 1.9
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 3, 21%
Best by WAR: Toby Hall (1997, 2.4 WAR)

10th Round
Total WAR: 1.3
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 1, 7%
Best by WAR: Jason Hammel (2002, 1.3 WAR)

11th Round
Total WAR: 0.0
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 0, 0%
Best by WAR: None.

12th Round
Total WAR: -0.1
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 1, 7%
Best by WAR: John Jaso (2003, -0.1 WAR)

13th Round
Total WAR: -0.9
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 2, 14%
Best by WAR: Andy Sonnanstine (2004, 0.4 WAR)

14th Round
Total WAR: -0.4
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 2, 14%
Best by WAR: Tie: Delvin James (1996, -0.2 WAR) and Jeff Ridgway (1999, -0.2 WAR)

15th Round
Total WAR: 1.1
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 1, 7%
Best by WAR: Mike Pelfrey (2002, 1.1 WAR)

16th Round
Total WAR: 15.2
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 2, 14%
Best by WAR: James Shields (2000, 13.2 WAR)

17th Round
Total WAR: 5.0
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 1, 7%
Best by WAR: Matt Diaz (1999, 5.0 WAR)

18th Round
Total WAR: 5.2
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 4, 28%
Best by WAR: Tie: Ryan Raburn (1999, 1.8 WAR) and Jonny Gomes (2001, 1.8 WAR)

19th Round
Total WAR: 1.3
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 2, 14%
Best by WAR: Jason Hammel (2001, 1.3 WAR)

20th Round
Total WAR: 0.0
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 0, 0%
Best by WAR: None.

21st Round
Total WAR: 0.0
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 0, 0%
Best by WAR: None

22nd Round
Total WAR: 0.0
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 0, 0%
Best by WAR: None.

23rd Round
Total WAR: -0.7
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 1, 7%
Best by WAR: Paul Hoover (1997, -0.7 WAR)

24th Round
Total WAR: -0.6
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 2, 14%
Best by WAR: Ryan Jorgensen (1998, -0.1 WAR)

25th Round
Total WAR: -1.2
Picks: 14
Reached MLB: 1, 7%
Best by WAR: Clayton Mortenson (2005, -1.2 WAR)

This is getting long, so I'll stop at the 25th round, but you can see the pattern. Rounds 26-50 continue the trend with a few blips, but nothing to indicate the 2010 draft will be likely to produce anything of value at the big league level. But, you never know. So make sure to follow our draft coverage beginning at 7 p.m. Monday!

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