Sunday, June 6, 2010

Rays Draft History and WAR - Part 1

RaysProspects.com
On the eve of the 2010 draft I thought it might be interesting to take a look back at past Rays drafts. There are a million ways to rate a draft, but I decided to focus on how much WAR (Wins Above Replacement) the players drafted by the Rays have accumulated in the majors. WAR isn't perfect of course, and the way I'm going to use it probably isn't either. I'm using B-Ref's WAR, as opposed to FanGraphs or others, simply because I don't know which is best.

This includes every player drafted by the Rays, whether they signed with the team or went back into the draft and ended up playing (and adding WAR) with another team. Why? First reason is it's easier. Second is I just want to focus on the quality of the pick, not whether the player had a ridiculous bonus demand or strong college commitment, or the team didn't have enough in it's budget. This also will include players who signed with the Rays but accumulated WAR for other teams after being traded or leaving through free agency.

In sum, this is a thumbnail sketch of how much major league value the Rays picks have ended up accruing over their careers, whether in a Rays uniform or elsewhere. For the latest drafts many of the players are still in the minors, so these results will change in future years. Also note, WAR of active players changes daily, so these values are as of today.

1996
Overall Draft WAR: 14.1
Picks: 97
Reached MLB: 9, 9%
Leaders: Jason Michaels (44th round, 8.1 WAR), Dan Wheeler (34th, 6.2 WAR), Jared Sandberg (16th, 2.0 WAR)
Busts (picks in rounds 1-5 who never reached MLB): Paul Wilder (1st round), Doug Johnson (2nd), Ed Koffer (3rd)

AL East WAR for 1996 draft:
New York Yankees: 30.9
Boston Red Sox: 27.5
Toronto Blue Jays: 46.1
Baltimore Orioles: 5.5


1997
Overall Draft WAR: 5.3
Picks: 92
Reached MLB: 8, 8%
Leaders: Heath Bell (69th round, 5.7 WAR), Toby Hall (9th, 2.4 WAR)
Busts (picks in rounds 1-5 who never reached MLB): Barrett Wright (3rd), Marquis Roberts (5th)

AL East WAR for 1997 draft:
New York Yankees: 2.6
Boston Red Sox: 14.9
Toronto Blue Jays: 76.4
Baltimore Orioles: 23.8


1998
Overall Draft WAR: 15.2
Picks: 47
Reached MLB: 6, 12%
Leaders: Aubrey Huff (5th round, 9.4 WAR), Joe Kennedy (8th, 6.1 WAR), Brandon Backe (18th, 1.6 WAR)
Busts (picks in rounds 1-5 who never reached MLB): Josh Pressley (4th), no picks in rounds 1, 2, 3

AL East WAR for 1998 draft:
New York Yankees: 13.6
Boston Red Sox: 41.6
Toronto Blue Jays: 12.6
Baltimore Orioles: 21.5


1999
Overall Draft WAR: 37.1
Picks: 50
Reached MLB: 7, 14%
Leaders: Carl Crawford (2nd round, 21.3 WAR), Josh Hamilton (1st, 9.7 WAR), Matt Diaz (17th, 5.0 WAR)
Busts (picks in rounds 1-5 who never reached MLB): Alex Santos (4th round)

AL East WAR for 1999 draft:
New York Yankees: -2.4
Boston Red Sox: 2.7
Toronto Blue Jays: 19.7
Baltimore Orioles: 45.0


2000
Overall Draft WAR: 20.2
Picks: 47
Reached MLB: 5, 10%
Leaders: James Shields (16th round, 13.2 WAR), Rocco Baldelli (1st, 6.7 WAR)
Busts (picks in rounds 1-5 who never reached MLB): Jace Brewer (5th round), no picks in rounds 2, 3, 4

AL East WAR for 2000 draft:
New York Yankees: -2.5
Boston Red Sox: 14.8
Toronto Blue Jays: 2.5
Baltimore Orioles: -1.6


2001
Overall Draft WAR: 5.4
Picks: 50
Reached MLB: 9, 18%
Leaders: David Bush (4th round, 5.7 WAR), Jonny Gomes (18th, 1.8 WAR), Chad Gaudin (34th, 1.7 WAR)
Busts (picks in rounds 1-5 who never reached MLB): Chris Flinn (3rd round)

AL East WAR for 2001 draft:
New York Yankees: -0.9
Boston Red Sox: 25.7
Toronto Blue Jays: 5.7
Baltimore Orioles: 6.4


2002
Overall Draft WAR: 13.0
Picks: 50
Reached MLB: 8, 16%
Leaders: B.J. Upton (1st round, 8.8 WAR), Elijah Dukes (3rd, 2.5 WAR)
Busts (picks in rounds 1-5 who never reached MLB): Mark Romanczuk (5th round)

AL East WAR for 2002 draft:
New York Yankees: 0.1
Boston Red Sox: 15.9
Toronto Blue Jays: 3.2
Baltimore Orioles: 0.3


2003
Overall Draft WAR: -6.3
Picks: 50
Reached MLB: 5, 10%
Leaders: Travis Schlichting (4th round, 0.0 WAR), John Jaso (12th, -0.1 WAR)
Busts (picks in rounds 1-5 who never reached MLB): James Houser (2nd round), Jonathan Barratt (5th)

AL East WAR for 2003 draft:
New York Yankees: -0.2
Boston Red Sox: 22.6
Toronto Blue Jays: 21.3
Baltimore Orioles: 17.1


2004
Overall Draft WAR: 3.5
Picks: 50
Reached MLB: 7, 14%
Leaders: Jeff Niemann (1st round, 2.2 WAR), Fernando Perez (7th, 0.6 WAR), Andy Sonnanstine (13th, 0.4 WAR)
Busts (picks in rounds 1-5 who never reached MLB): Matt Spring (4th) and Jake McGee (5th) are still in the minors, but certainly not busts yet.

AL East WAR for 2004 draft:
New York Yankees: 1.1
Boston Red Sox: 14.9
Toronto Blue Jays: 7.8
Baltimore Orioles: 4.8

Note: At this point the players are mostly all still in the minors, so I won't list any busts from here on out.

2005
Overall Draft WAR: -1.2
Picks: 50
Reached MLB: 3, 6%
Leaders: Tommy Hunter (18th round, 0.0 WAR), Clayton Mortenson (25th, -1.2 WAR)

AL East WAR for 2005 draft:
New York Yankees: 2.8
Boston Red Sox: 7.0
Toronto Blue Jays: 2.3
Baltimore Orioles: -0.4


2006
Overall Draft WAR: 10.3
Picks: 50
Reached MLB: 2, 4%
Leaders: Evan Longoria (1st round, 10.4 WAR), Josh Butler (2nd, -0.1 WAR)

AL East WAR for 2006 draft:
New York Yankees: 4.7
Boston Red Sox: 4.0
Toronto Blue Jays: -0.5
Baltimore Orioles: -1.0


2007
Overall Draft WAR: 1.4
Picks: 50
Reached MLB: 1, 2%
Leaders: David Price (1st round, 1.4 WAR)

AL East WAR for 2007 draft:
New York Yankees: 0.0
Boston Red Sox: 0.0
Toronto Blue Jays: 0.6
Baltimore Orioles: 1.2


2008
Overall Draft WAR: 0.0
Picks: 50
Reached MLB: 0, 0%
Leaders: None.

AL East WAR for 2008 draft:
New York Yankees: 0.0
Boston Red Sox: 0.0
Toronto Blue Jays: 0.0
Baltimore Orioles: 0.7


2009
Overall Draft WAR: 0.0
Picks: 50
Reached MLB: 0, 0%
Leaders: None.

AL East WAR for 2009 draft:
New York Yankees: 0.0
Boston Red Sox: 0.0
Toronto Blue Jays: 0.0
Baltimore Orioles: 0.0

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