Monday, May 23, 2011

The draft order is not kind to the Rays

I just wanted to post something I realized after looking at even more mocks. Looking at the updated draft prospects rankings over the last published version, there seems to be a little gap talent wise between the top 15 and again after the top 21 prospects in this draft. Nevertheless, some teams like the NY Mets (conservative draft approach for some years now; will new regime change that?), the Milwaukee Brewers (connections to Alex Meyer, Larry Greene), the Washington Nationals (linked to Alex Meyer even for pick 1-6) and the LA Dodgers (tight on money) have been linked to players who seem to be an overdraft with their selections. Reasons for that are the signability of some high ceiling players (A. Bradley, D. Bundy, B. Starling, ...), the depth of this draft (spreading the budget), the draft approaches of some of these teams and the yearly rise of some players right before the draft.

This means, that some players could and will fall a bit. And while I'm still dreaming about some really top notch talents like Josh Bell, Mike Mahtook or Daniel Norris falling to the Rays, the probability is really slim. What's the main reason for that?
  • Pick 1-19: Boston Red Sox (They will take best player available ... I could easily see Archie Bradley falling to them)
  • Pick 1-20: Colorado Rockies (They have a history of taking the best player available. They are not shy of high bonus demands)
  • Pick 1-21: Toronto Blue Jays (The new regime is not afraid of putting money into prospects. They will take the best player on their board)
  • Pick 1-22: St. Louis Cardinals (They also are not afraid of spending big in the draft)
I am afraid that any top 15 or maybe even top 21 talents (the talents 16-21 seem to be M. Mahtook, J. Bell, A. Meyer, B. Swihart, J. Fernandez and J. Baez) will be gone before the 1st Rays pick. Just good to know that the Rays have 12 picks in the first 2 rounds and that this draft is incredibly deep in talent.


  1. On the positive side,if our 1st pick were much higher, we would then have to pay that 1st pick much more $$.Now we will be able to use that extra $$ to help sign all 10 picks that we have in the first 60 overall.

  2. While that's right, the Rays selected a high upside player in last years draft at 1-17 for nearly slot money (1.62 Mio. $).

    I still hope the Rays don't work with a budget limit this year. They should look at each player individually and select the player with the highest future value/price tag difference.

  3. Boston snaked our guy in 2009 (Reymond Fuentes) and I expect they'll throw a monkey wrench into our plans again this year. That being said, I see a pretty strong possibility that some great players will be available both at 1.24 and then again at 1.31 and 1.32.

    Josh Bell would be the dream if he somehow fell to 1.24; I don't rate that as particularly likely, but it could happen. Jose Fernandez I think will be there. Mikie Mahtook might be. Andrew Susac might be. Jackie Bradley, Jr. probably will be. Alex Meyer might be. Those are all top 10 selections in leaner years.

    Where I really expect the Rays to clean up is at picks 31 and 32 (and then again in the early supplemental), where they might nab both C.J. Cron AND Kolten Wong, and still turn around and pick a high-upside prep arm (Tyler Beede? Robert Stephenson?) at 38.

  4. Ehhh, I'm not scared. Going off of Baseball America's midseason top 50 list (found here:, I see there are more than 24 players I would be happy to get at Pick #24. 1-22 are all worthy of out pick, and so are 24,26,27, and even 32.