Saturday, April 3, 2010

2011 Top 15 Lists: A Projection

Here's a fun little post prediction what our 2011 top prospects lists might look like.

Top 15 Hitters:
1. Tim Beckham - Hitting line improves somewhat, defense draws much better reviews
2. Rays 2010 draft pick - At least one of the two first rounders will be a hitter
3. Hector Guevara - Big season with either Princeton or the GCL Rays
4. Jeff Malm - Rakes from day 1 with Hudson Valley
5. Luke Bailey - Solid hitting, still recovering from Tommy John surgery
6. Ty Morrison - .300/.390/.440 with 25 steals and plus defense
7. Matt Sweeney - Injury costs him some time, moves to 1B full-time, hits decently when healthy
8. Shawn O'Malley - Another nice OBP, slightly improved power(.350 SLG)
9. Another Rays 2010 draft pick
10. Kyeong Kang - Home runs still don't show up
11. Mike Sheridan - BABIP normalization plus drawing some more walks equals solid season
12. Cesar Perez - Tears it up in the VSL/DSL a la Hector Guevara in 2009
13. Todd Glaesmann - Tools are obvious but doesn't quite put it together in 2010
14. Tyler Bortnick - Defense, contact and on-base skills stay solid, power dips some,
15. Cody Rogers - Tough first half, but adjusts and cuts down on the strikeouts in second half
Graduating: Desmond Jennings and Reid Brignac

Of course it's obvious that the Rays hitting depth, save for Jennings, is at the lower levels, but putting this together really drove that home. Tampa Bay has plenty of depth at the big-league/AAA level(Jennings, the plethora of middle infielders, Justin Ruggiano, John Jaso, etc), which is good since most of the reinforcements are at least two years away.

Top 15 Pitchers:
1. Matt Moore - Emerges as a top-15 prospect in all of baseball
2. Kyle Lobstein - Breakout season in Bowling Green gives the Rays two lefties with ace potential
3. Alex Colome - Struggles a bit with his control early in the year, but recovers
4. Nick Barnese - Stays healthy and shows off his electric fastball, secondary stuff lags some. Talk of a future closer begins
5. Jason McEachern - Stuff starts to sharpen and is a sexy 2011 breakout pick
6. Alex Torres - Plus stuff with rough control makes for a frustrating year
7. Wilking Rodriguez - Dominates at times, but slightly inconsistent at Hudson Valley
8. David Newmann - Strong, workman-like year sees him finish in the Rays bullpen
9. Kevin James - See: Alex Torres, though with slightly better walk numbers since he can just put it near the plate and get rookie-level hitters out
10. Alex Cobb - Oblique injury means a slow start, but his second half rate stats will be nearly identical to his 2009 rate stats
11. Rays 2010 draft pick - Probably from an "unprotected" pick meaning safer bet to sign, meaning lower ceiling
12. Scott Shuman - Control slips a bit from 2009(into the 4.3-4.7 per 9 range), but strikes guys out wherever he is
13. Jake McGee - Not yet as dominating as he was pre-surgery
14. Another 2010 Rays draft pick
15. Jacob Partridge - Plays the finesse lefty to Kevin James' power lefty in the Princeton rotation
Graduating: Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson


  1. We're somewhat optimistic on the hitters I see, especially on Ty Morrison. I think that in particular, his power won't show up that much, but I hope that you're right.

  2. Also, I don't see Lobstein dominating enough to become our number 2, but I suppose it's possible.
    I'm much more bullish on McGee though, and I see him either being above average as a starter, or absolutely lights out as a reliever.

  3. Thought Zach Quate should made your list for Pitchers. From what I understand he had a tremendous Spring Training.

  4. To add to the other Anonymous comment -Zach also had a tremendous season at Hudson Valley. He was just assigned to Port Charlotte right from Hudson Valley.(skipping Bowling Green)

  5. Is there a website that shows recaps of any of the lower level minor league spring training games and extended spring training games? How did Malm, Glaesmann, Bailey and James do this spring? Any reports?

  6. Stats/recaps from those games are really only kept by the organization themselves, and aren't really publicly reported. One exception: Stacy Long has posted some tidbits from those games, so he's worth checking out(

    Zach Quate definitely got consideration, and the news about skipping a level is nice to hear(Matt Gorgen made a similar jump from 2008 to 2009).

  7. Oh, and extended spring training stats may not even be tallied because the games aren't truly structured(example: rehabbing players lead off every inning). Those aren't reported anywhere.