Thursday, June 21, 2012

Top 30 Prospect List: Doug

1. LHSP Enny Romero
- Charlotte Stone Crabs - 21.4
- international free agent June 2, 2008
- #1 came down to 4 pitchers, ended up picking Romero over Colome
- doesn't have the upside of Guerrieri, but has tract record of success and health
- 140 strikeouts in 114.0 IP for Bowling Green last year
- K-rate down so far this year in Charlotte, but has only allowed 52 hits (and 1 HR) in 73.0 IP, walk rate improving, 3.08 ERA, .208 batting average against
- works off his dominant mid-90s fastball, developing offspeed pitches, size (still filling out), workhorse so far, still very young, everything you want from a lefty starter
- inconsistent mechanics only issue going forward

2. RHSP Alex Colome
- Montgomery Biscuits - 23.4
- international free agent March 20, 2007
- plus stuff (mid-90s fastball and curve), still working on refining it for command
- 157.2 IP between Charlotte and Montgomery last year was 2nd only to Matt Moore in Rays minors, only allowed 119 hits (6.8 per 9)
- has been a workhorse throughout his career until oblique injury in April, limited to 6 starts for Montgomery but has struck out 34 batters in 25.2 innings
- now healthy, expect dominant 2nd half in Montgomery

3. RHSP Chris Archer
- Tampa Bay Rays - 23.7
- 5th round (161st overall) 2006 by Cleveland Indians
- acquired in Matt Garza trade with Chicago Cubs on January 8, 2011
- blend of projection, past performance, age-to-level
- inconsistent, dominates at times, poor command others
- can't believe he ended up this high really, but he's shown glimpses and still has more ceiling if command improves
- org has faith too, which means a lot, but I think he ends up a reliever

4. RHSP Taylor Guerrieri
- Hudson Valley Renegades - 19.5
- 1st round (24th overall) 2011
- pure potential pick, but incredible potential
- couldn't put him #1 with no pro experience, expect him there by end of season if performance is as good as expected
- debut could not have gone much better, doesn't need to be that good for next 2 1/2 months to end up #1, just solid

5. OF Drew Vettleson
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 20.9
- supplemental 1st round (42nd overall) 2010
- good first year with Princeton, skipped Hudson Valley to Bowling Green this year and hasn't missed a beat
- .289/.357/.434 line through 249 at-bats with the Hot Rods
- consistent all-around player, defense gives him the edge over any other position player now
- not as much upside as Sale due to power, but very high floor (similar to Mahtook), no weaknesses, will hit for average and enough power for corner OF

6. OF Josh Sale
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 20.9
- 1st round (17th overall) 2010
- projection pick
- showed little at Princeton last year in his first pro action
- remained in extended spring training working on mechanics, skipped Hudson Valley and made late start at Bowling Green
- has been the top hitter in org since reaching Bowling Green: .305/.414/.621 in 30 games
- highest ceiling of any position player due to power bat
- impact bat if maintains consistent mechanics, could challenge Guerrieri for #1 overall after season

7. SS Hak-Ju Lee
- Montgomery Biscuits - 21.6
- international free agent May 29, 2008, by the Chicago Cubs
- acquired in Matt Garza trade with Chicago Cubs on January 8, 2011 (only player acquired who hasn't played for Rays)
- age-to-level and potential pick
- fantastic Rays org debut with Charlotte last year: .832 OPS in 400 ABs
- has dropped in last year due to performance since promotion to Mongtomery: .229/.301/.311 in 380 ABs
- missed big opportunity to replace Beckham at Durham during suspension
- huge upside if bat comes around, which it should with his athleticism and past success, but small sample size concerns aren't that small any more

8. OF Mikie Mahtook
- Charlotte Stone Crabs - 22.5
- 1st round (31st overall) 2011
- great debut in Arizona Fall League
- Rays aggressively started him in Charlotte where he has disappointed with lack of power and on-base skills
- early problems not as concerning due to history of success against top college competition
- very athletic, no defensive concerns, just needs bat to come around
- ceiling isn't as high as some others, but very high floor

9. 3B Tyler Goeddel
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 19.6
- supplemental 1st round (41st overall) 2011
- projection and age-to-level pick
- young for A-ball with Rays org, first high school draft pick to skip short-season entirely since Young/Upton/Dukes era
- slumping of late, still top 3B prospect by far in the system, nice size, should be able to stay at third
- high ceiling but needs power to develop to reach it, plenty of time considering age

10. SS Jake Hager
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 19.2
- 1st round (32nd overall) 2011
- projection and age-to-level pick
- will stick at shortstop
- skipped Hudson Valley in a bit of a surprise, yet hitting as well as Princeton last year at 2 levels higher
- stats not outstanding but fine in light of age (youngest player on Hot Rods roster), but improving after rough April
- high upside, future only limited by how much he hits

11. 3B Richie Shaffer
- unsigned - 21.2
- 1st round (25th overall) 2012
- projection pick
- little doubt he signs, reportedly one of the top college bats in the draft
- issue is whether he's a legitimate third baseman

12. SS Brandon Martin
- Princeton Rays - 18.8
- supplemental 1st round (38th overall) 2011
- pure projection pick
- athleticism to stick at shortstop
- question is the bat, hit better than other high picks (Goetzman and Harris) at GCL last year

13. 2B Ryan Brett
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 20.6
- 3rd round (98th overall) 2010
- performance and age-to-level pick
- .306/.366/.446 batting line over 3-year career, decent walk and strikeout rate, 52 SB in 142 games
- skipped Hudson Valley and has continued to hit in full-season ball, .800 OPS as a second baseman
- significantly reduced errors this year compared to Princeton
- limited upside, but value in tools to hit leadoff with some pop

14. LHSP Ryan Carpenter
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 21.8
- 7th round (240th overall) 2011
- great numbers in limited innings for Hudson Valley after signing last year
- solid if not spectacular so far for Bowling Green
- projects as a solid, workhorse lefty
- doesn't have the upside of other pitchers on this list, but has higher floor

15. LHSP Felipe Rivero
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 20.9
- international free agent July 30, 2008
- performance and age-to-level pick
- has had a better than expected full-season debut with Bowling Green after skipping over Hudson Valley, great stats across the board, improved velocity
- has developed mid-90s fast ball and plus curve, issue is whether he has durability to stick as starter due to size

16. LHSP Blake Snell
- Princeton Rays - 19.5
- supplemental 1st round (52nd overall) 2011
- pure potential pick
- tall left-hander had a decent debut in GCL last year, could move up several spots with solid summer in Princeton

17. 1B Jeff Malm
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 21.6
- 5th round (169th overall) 2009
- emerging power bat, has improved his OPS at every level as he's moved up over 4-year career, hitting .295/.387/.493 for Hot Rods
- issue is whether he's limited to 1B, if so everything rides on hitting and power
- encouraging that he's played 11 games in the outfield for Bowling Green this year with only one error

18. OF Brandon Guyer
- Tampa Bay Rays (60-day disabled list) - 26.3
- 5th round (157th overall) 2007 by Chicago Cubs
- acquired in Matt Garza trade with Chicago Cubs on January 8, 2011
- would be top 5 except for uncertainty due to shoulder
- love the bat, athleticism to play anywhere in the OF
- if he comes back healthy he'll be at least a 4th OF, probably a regular

19. SS Derek Dietrich
- Charlotte Stone Crabs - 22.9
- 2nd round (79th overall) 2010
- shortstops who hit for power are usually ranked higher
- high strikeout and low walk rates combined with doubts about future position make him a tough rank
- already played 11 games at 2B for Charlotte this season

20. RHSP Jeff Ames
- Hudson Valley Renegades - 21.3
- supplemental 1st round (42nd overall) 2011
- projection pick
- struggled in limited innings for Princeton last year
- 44 strikeouts in 35.1 career innings
- expecting breakout performance in Hudson Valley after offseason work, possible top 10 entering 2013

21. LHSP C.J. Riefenhauser
- Charlotte Stone Crabs - 22.3
- 20th round (611th overall) 2010
- fantastic in Bowling Green rotation before struggling in Charlotte after promotion last year, seemed destined for bullpen
- has clawed his way back into Charlotte rotation, 73-17 SO-BB and 2.98 ERA in 57.1 IP are hard to beat
- keeps runners off the basepaths with career WHIP of 1.077 (7.3 hits/9 and 2.4 BB/9)

22. RHSP Jake Floethe
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 23.0
- 6th round (210th overall) 2011
- performance pick
- surprisingly good in pro debut for Hudson Valley last year and Bowling Green this year
- excellent hit and walk rates, only 1 HR allowed in 91.1 IP, K-rate is a concern going forward

23. SS Tim Beckham
- Durham Bulls (suspended list) - 22.3
- 1st round (1st overall) 2008
- age-to-level and position pick
- suspension isn't good, but performance is bigger worry
- hitting .238/.285/.400 in 37 AAA games
- best stop so far was Montgomery in first half of 2011, even there his bat wasn't anything special (.734 OPS)

24. LHSP Alex Torres
- Durham Bulls - 24.5
- international free agent January 12, 2005, by the Los Angeles Angels
- acquired in Scott Kazmir trade with Los Angeles Angels on August 28, 2009
- having a worse year in Durham than Beckham, recent return to rotation only saving grace

25. OF/C Stephen Vogt
- Durham Bulls - 27.6
- 12th round (365th overall) 2007
- disasterous 0-17 MLB debut aside, he's a career .303/.361/.452 hitter who can play a passable catcher

26. OF/1B Henry Wrigley
- Durham Bulls - 25.8
- 14th round (418th overall) 2005
- not pandering, a performance pick
- doubt he's a major league regular, but bat will get him there, if only he could play a legit 3B
- only a career .720 OPS hitter (.257/.298/.422), but has improved at every level as he moved up the past 6 seasons:
A- = .639
A = .663
A+ = .752
AA = .765
AAA = .784

27. OF Granden Goetzman
- Princeton Rays - 19.5
- 2nd round (75th overall) 2011
- projection pick, rise depends on power

28. C Oscar Hernandez
- Princeton Rays - 18.9
- international free agent August 14, 2009
- couldn't have done much better in VSL, but need to see performance in U.S. before ranking any higher

29. RHSP Parker Markel
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 21.7
- 39th round (1,181st overall) 2010
- nice 2011 in Hudson Valley with less than 7 H/9
- hasn't handled full-season debut well, hittable and K-rate unremarkable
- relies on power sinker, groundball pitcher

30. RHSP Wilking Rodriguez
- Charlotte Stone Crabs - 22.3
- international free agent February 26, 2007
- expected him to be with Colome now, but shoulder surgery in October of 2010 derailed 2011, and 2012 hasn't been special
- probably his last time on a list


Just missed: RHSP Roberto Gomez at Bowling Green and RHSP Albert Suarez at Charlotte.

One from each team that didn't make it but are worth watching:

Durham - RHP Bryan Augenstein
Montgomery - OF Ty Morrison
Charlotte - LHRP Chris Rearick
Bowling Green - C Matt Rice
Hudson Valley - LHSP Matt Spann
Princeton - OF James Harris
GCL - OF Johnny Eierman
VSL - 1B Iago Januario
DSL - LHSP Geisel De La Cruz

24 comments:

  1. 4 lists, 4 different #1 (Sale, Guerrieri, Archer, Romero). That describes the system - and its lack of clear #1 - pretty well. I think that there can be a reasonable argument made for up to 6 players (those 4 + Colome and maybe Lee) to be #1.

    I really like your list and the comments, Doug. How do you see Todd Glaesmann? Was he close?

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    1. Thanks BurGi. I haven't totaled up the lists yet, so I don't know how the final rankings have turned out. I'll try to get it up tomorrow.

      On Glaesmann, was a favorite but all the tools haven't turned into skills. Career strikeout rate of 28% of PAs, still at 23% even in this, his best year. Hasn't hit for average, hasn't walked, hasn't hit power (until this year). Just haven't seen enough to believe this year is for real, given what he did in 2010-11. Big athletic guy, great outfielder, just hasn't clicked.

      Maybe this is the year. Power is up, strikeouts down a little, but walk rate/OBP still low. Probably in the 40-50 range right now, not counting any new draft picks other than Shaffer.

      Oh, and I included Shaffer even though he hasn't signed just for consistency with the other lists. Good thing I went last because I wasn't planning on including him since not officially in the org.

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    2. I saw Glaesman in Bowling Green about 3 wks ago and was very impressed. I saw he and Sale go back to back and Glaesman just crushed the ball. Of course it was only one game but he seems to hit the ball extremely hard and seem very strong. All I could think of was a poor mans J-Ham. After seeing him, I can't believe he's not on any of the three lists. BTW, and I don't mean this sarcastically, have you seen him play and how recently?

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    3. Didn't see them when they came through early in the year, cold, wind and rain every game. I watched all of his games in Australia, that was over the winter. At that time he was still the same I'd seen before, looked great like I said above, big, athletic, smooth. But he's always had a really long swing for a RH batter, almost like you see on a LH. Seemed a little slow to start too, like a timing or trigger issue.

      Now when he hit it it was solid and carried, which you would expect by looking at him. But he didn't make much contact, lots of swing and miss. Always seemed slow to get started and like I said before, long. For how he looks and plays in the OF the swing just seemed out of place, not quick.

      How does he look now? Shorter swing?

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    4. He seemed to try to keep his elbows and hands in though I could be wrong. I just loved the power. Am I the only one who can't wait to see the Bowling Green guys in Pt. Charlotte next year? I know the FSL is supposedly a pitchers league so I wonder what impact that will have. Seems as though every position player at BG will graduate up a level next year. BTW, your link to Princeton is to some Japanese looking site. The same was true all of last year.

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    5. Which link to Princeton? Checked all the ones on the right (by the standings), seem ok to me. Sorry if I've missed it.

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    6. Sorry, mixed you up with Rays Index

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  2. Whats the big deal on Colome. He has never really produced except in the strikeout category.

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    1. Big arm, touches upper 90s, good curve. Depends if he puts it all together. But his stuff is too good to ignore. Even if he doesn't, could still be a valuable reliever with the gas and an offspeed pitch.

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    2. Good point. I can see him being a good reliever. His stuff is nasty when hes on, at least when I saw him pitch.

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    3. It's nothing particular to Colome, assuming a pitcher has a good arm and is healthy, consistent delivery is a problem for all of them. Look at Matt Moore, not that Colome is in his class, but for years he struggled with control, but dominant when he was on. It finally came together and he became one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Still need the great arm, but need consistency to be a great pitcher. I just hope the missed time this year doesn't set him back. He made 9 starts at the end of last year in Montgomery, thought he'd show progress when this year started after having experienced AA. But the first half has been a mess. Hope the 2nd half is healthy.

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  3. No love for any relief pitchers in any top 30 list so far. I think you guys should do a top 30 relief pitchers, if your not going to give any relief pitcher a chance to make this list.

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    1. It's true for me at least, and by design. The Rays just haven't had RPs come up through the system as relievers. I've been burnt too many times on them. Satow, Quate, Shuman, Fleming, Yates, Hinkle, Garcia, Medlock, Frontz, Reid, Risser, Boggan, Southern, DeBarr, and on and on. It just never works out, regret it everytime.

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    2. So what do you foresee happening with guys like patridge and mceachern if they continue to succeed like they are?

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    3. Torres, Lueke and Linsky are on my list. Riefenhauser may very well end up as a reliever as well. Augenstein is 31st.

      Scott and Kevin have Linsky as well.

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    4. RE McEachern and Partridge. Hopefully they'll break the streak of bad luck! What's happened with most guys is they hit a wall, at A, A+, or AA. Not sure why other than the batters get better, but I think it's getting less work as RPs. Not as much of a routine as a starter, might not pitch in a game for several days, less pitches in an outing, etc. They just lose their consistency and get worse. Then it becomes a numbers game as the Rays convert other starters into relievers, and sign free agents at AA and AAA. Pretty soon they are gone. And of course injuries get some, and Matt Gorgen was traded.

      You would think given there are more RPs on a major league roster than any other position and the Rays are so great at developing pitchers that they would have a bullpen full of homegrown relievers. But there are 3, McGee, Davis and Howell (who came from KC) and all 3 were long-time starters. Howell and Davis were MLB starters when converted, and McGee was in AAA.

      So based on history I just don't see guys who are already relievers in A and A+ ever making it into the Rays bullpen.

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    5. Relief Pitcher's are just as important in a special way, especially coming into high leverage situations. Starter Pitcher's can also hit a wall. Many of the RPs were starters through out High school and College, so to groom them in relief is just as effective. If the Rays don't push them through then hopefully some of them will get traded and play where they are needed.

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    6. Just because you were burnt on some RP's doesn't mean all of them are the same as that group you mentioned.

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  4. Alot better than the first few list! Dealing alot more with production and not signing bonuses! I still think a few are higher than should be but thats just me...good to see CJ and Flothe on your list both are having great years and have placed themselves in the prospect side of the column! Linskey has to get healthy! I think 2 pitchers will be sent up to Charlotte from BG and Patridge and either Mechechan or Belatti will go into the rotation...you should have left Schaffer of the list! He is technically not a prospect! Good job!

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  5. Matt Rice is throwing out only 15% of runners (44 SB) (8 CS)... could he play any other positions?

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    1. He hasn't since he was drafted last year, just catcher and DH. Some catchers move off to 3B, but that's not typical, more likely 1B or LF. Not sure if he can run well enough for OF, so 1B more likely. But he'd have to hit for more power than he has so far as a 1B. Best hope is he gets better as a catcher, work on mechanics to get a quicker release. I really don't know much about his defense, don't remember anyone ever saying it was real good or bad, so assumed average. They didn't run on him much at HV, he got 11 of 36, 31%.

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  6. What's the deal with Roberto Gomez? His numbers don't look great, do you have a scouting report that indicates something good, or is it based on his size/projection and the Rays' faith in putting him in the rotation?

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  7. out of these players who has lead in RBIs and HRs?

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  8. Archer high K count but 4.8 ERA in AAA...

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