I start out with everyone who is eligible (less than 130 AB's or 50 IP in MLB) and start weeding players out. Some guys are harder to cross off than others, for me personal favorites like Omar Bencomo, Josh Satow and Julio Cedeno, but eventually they go. Here are a few things I've noticed:
- As Kevin tweeted the other day, it's difficult to rank guys from the 2009 draft class who played poorly this year against guys from the 2010 class who have yet to play.
- I use several small rankings to help me sort out the overall rankings, for example by affiliate, by age, or by draft class. Here are a few things that stood out...
- From the 2008 draft class, which is beginning to look awful (I'll review it next spring in depth), who should be higher, Tim Beckham (1st overall) or Ty Morrison (4th round)? Morrison is 6 months younger and played 1 level lower than Beckham, and both played premium defensive positions, but not necessarily very well (Beckham .949 fld% at SS vs. Morrison .960 in CF). Morrison jumped from Princeton in 2009 to BG, while Beckham moved up from BG to Charlotte. Considering that and looking at their numbers at the plate, how do I not rank Morrison higher?:
Player Level AB 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS GDP HBP Beckham A+ 465 23 5 5 22 14 62 119 .256 .346 .359 .705 14 4 Morrison A 452 21 13 6 58 10 43 133 .250 .324 .394 .718 6 7- From the non-top 10 rounds of the 2010 class, lets look at Robby Price (13th round, DOB 4/20/88, 2B for HV) vs. Phil Wunderlich (12th round, DOB 11/4/88, 1B for HV) vs. Kevin Kiermaier (31st round, DOB 4/22/90, RF/CF for Princeton):
Player Level AB 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS GDP HBP Price A- 194 17 1 2 13 1 36 25 .294 .437 .423 .860 1 15 Wunderlich A- 209 19 0 4 0 1 9 40 .330 .372 .478 .850 1 6 Kiermaier R+ 218 8 7 2 17 5 24 54 .303 .380 .431 .811 4 3- From the top of the 2010 draft, Ryan Brett (3rd round, DOB 10/9/91, 2B for GCL Rays) vs. Derek Dietrich (2nd round, DOB 7/18/89, SS for HV):
Player Level AB 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS GDP HBP Brett R 89 5 2 0 12 3 8 17 .303 .364 .404 .768 1 1 Dietrich A- 179 12 2 3 2 2 11 42 .279 .340 .419 .759 2 6- I included HBP just for Price... 15 in 194 AB's??? Duck kiddo.
- Hellickson didn't pitch enough innings for the Rays to be excluded, and I think he's clearly #1.
- I thought Jennings would be my clear #2, but now I'm considering Moore. Probably will end up back at Jennings.
- Who should be #4? I'm thinking Alex Cobb. McGee is an obvious choice, but if the move to the pen is permanent, and with Cobb at AAA and still a starter, I'm leaning more towards Cobb.
- I'll be higher than most on Tyler Bortnick and Joseph Cruz, as usual.
- Don't forget Nick Barnese, another very good year as he heads to AA.
- Lots of 2010 NDFA RP's put up incredible numbers... but none will make the top 30.
- How to rank the 1st rounders from 2010 - Sale 1/17, O'Conner 1/31, and Vettleson 1/supp? The more I read about Vettleson the more I like him.
- Not sure what to make of Henry Wrigley or Jose Ruiz. Or Leslie Anderson for that matter, who won't be on my list since he'll be 29 on opening day.
- Interested to see how Alex Diaz (17th round 2009) does in Princeton next year. Was .304/.390/.393 for the GCL Rays last season.
- Enny Romero and Braulio Lara are getting a lot of attention lately for their performances in Princeton, but don't forget about another short-season starter - Wilmer Almonte from HV. He had a 2.77 ERA over 78 innings with 73 SO's vs. 15 BB's.
- Speaking of HV, lots to like from their pitching staff: Austin Hubbard (14th round 2010), Jake Thompson was the most impressive (2nd round 2010), Jimmy Patterson (18th round 2010), Adam Liberatore (21st round 2010) and Nate Garcia (16th round 2010).
- If I could have a season ticket to any affiliate for 2011 I would easily pick the Princeton Rays. Between the high picks from the '09 and '10 drafts moving up from the GCL, plus new players from the '11 draft, should be an incredible team to watch. Montgomery would probably be #2, with all of the pitching.
Enough for now, feel free to add your thoughts. I'll probably do a Part II later in the week with additional comparisons I'm sorting out.