Minor League Breakdown: The Hitting Prospects

As it has been only 4 days since my last MiL-Breakdown I'm going to leave the view at the MiL-standings out, but overall the Rays MiL organisations have gone a mere 11:15 over the last 4 days.

Prospects stats overview

From now on I will also post the stats of the average MiL-hitter in the Rays system. This should help in order to identify some trends of the system. The stat-line of the average Rays MiL-hitter is at the bottom of the following chart. You can see (by the colours of the cells), that the Rays minor leaguers are above average in some categories while they struggle in others: 

• OBP, wOBA and Spd are above average. 
• ISO and OPS are below average.

This gives us a picture of the typical Rays minor leaguer. The prototypical Rays minor leaguer has a knack for getting on base and then using his above average speed on the basepaths. As wOBA also includes baserunning, the typical Rays hitter fares better in this category than in OPS. The below average OPS (despite above average OBP) is a result of the clearly below average ISO (average across leagues should be around .145). The low ISO shows that the Rays are below average in the power department. Only 30 of the stat-lines below have an ISO north of .145. The leaderboard in this category looks as follows (min. 50 PA's):

1. Alejandro Segovia ... .299 ISO
2. Oscar Hernandez ... .259 ISO 
3. Kyeong Kang ... .247 ISO
4. Joshua Sale ... .237 ISO
5. Henry Wrigley ... .236 ISO
6. Justin O'Conner ... .234 ISO
7. Brandon Allen ... .229 ISO
8. Brandon Martin ... .224 ISO (SURPRISE!)
9. Jeff Malm ... .207 ISO

Here is the data (the horizontal black line shows you where the average Rays MiL hitter would be ... sorted by wOBA):

Prospects on the rise

1. Alejandro Segovia ... While also having been strong before, he is lights out since mid-June: 1.286 OPS, .524 wOBA. And his BABIP is not very high either.
2. Henry Wrigley ... He is really making a push for the majors right now. Even his K% is respectable with 21.4% on the season. His last 47 PA's: 1.261 OPS, .547 wOBA.
3. Oscar Hernandez ... Next to Josh Sale's '12 performance, I was most looking forward to and keen about Oscar Hernandez' performance in '12. And man, what a start: With 18 years of age in Princeton, he has a .916 OPS with a more than solid approach at the plate (8.2 BB%, 14.8K%). While the sample size is still small, I like what I see. 
4. Tim Beckham ... Hopefully he has learned from his mistakes and hopefully he can continue to play like he did as of late. His last 49 PA's: .986 OPS, .443 wOBA.
5. Ty Morrison ... Above average speed, good on-base skills and a hot bat as of late make him the #5 on this list. He was another tools-guy whom I was waiting to break out. And while it's way too early to say that he broke out, he is doing well in AA.
6. Darryl George ... The first 67 PA's couldn't have gone much better for Darryl George. And while his excellent results might be driven by an unsustainable high batting average, this is still an encouraging sign.
7. Jake Hager ... He continues to impress. Last 46 PA's: .961 OPS | Last 82 PA's: .952 OPS | Last 157 PA's: .934 OPS | Last 199 PA's: .861 OPS. Also, his plate discipline is getting better and better (June: 10 BB vs. 8 K).
8. Todd Glaesmann ... His progress over the season is excellent: April: .737 OPS | May: .766 | June: .900 | July: 1.042
9. Brandon Martin ...  Like almost all other early 1st (and 1st supp) round picks from last year (Guerrieri, Snell, Hager, Mahtook, Ames), Brandon Martin is also doing very well. He even shows some (mostly gap-to-gap) power.

Honorable mentions: Cole Figueroa, Willie Argo, Greg Sexton, Luke Maile.
Encouraging signs from short-season ball (less than 50 PA's): Benjamin Kline, Andrew Toles (only 22 PA's), Omar Narvaez (excellent plate discipline).

Prospects to be falling

1. James Harris Jr. ... Since a Brandon Allen-like start to the '12 season, it has gone nowhere but down for James Harris. No power, no ability to get on base and no ability to even hit the ball have been shown yet. The result: .522 OPS (last 39 PA's: .412 OPS).
2. Deshun Dixon ... Except for his excellent BB:K ratio, he is not doing much at the plate. 
3. Joshua Sale ... Maybe it was injury related (as he is on the DL right now), but his results as of late haven't been the same as before mid-June.
4. Matt Mangini ... With this kind of performance he is no factor for the major league club. He is no prospect either, therefore ... .

Discouraging signs from short-season ball: Cesar Perez, Yoel Araujo (way too early, but 51.5K%!!!), Marty Gantt.


Glossary

All of the stats provided above are excluding the stats from the previous day. I preferrably use FanGraphs as source for the stats. Click on each stat for its explanation:

• Traditional stats: AVG, OBP, OPS, BB% and K%.
• Newer stats: ISO, wOBA, wRAA, BABIP and Spd.

Minor League Breakdown: The Pitching Prospects

Sorry for being a day late but I couldn't find any time for it yesterday. I do want to point out that - as I did last week with the hitting prospects - I'm not considering the stats of players from short season ball this week. The sample size simply is WAY too small. I'll start to consider them next week.

Overall state of the farm

Despite not even considering yesterdays - for a large part - bad pitching performances, the system as a whole doesn't look very good on the pitching side. The other side of the ball - though - does look quite promising with an encouraging .712 OPS throughout the system.

 OPS-CH and ERA-CH stands for the OPS and ERA change since the last minor league breakdown. Overall ERA and OPS are from ALL affiliates (including DSL, VSL and short season ball affiliates)

Prospects stats overview

Prospects on the rise

1. Chris Rearick ... Throughout the last 1.5 seasons he hasn't shown any weakness. Over this season: 31.7 K%, 7.9 BB%, 1.88 ERA, 1.66 FIP, .208 AVGagainst. 
2. Chris Archer ... He showed that he might be ready for the majors. Some more work on his command is needed, though.
3. Theron Geith ... 1.88 FIP (2.38 FIP on the season), 10.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over his last 14.1 IP. 
4. Andrew Bellatti ... Constistently strong performances in medium-to-long relief put him on this list. His last 24.1 IP: 2.49 FIP, 10 K/9, 2.2 BB/9.
5. Parker Markel ... He is still very inconsistent, but showing higher strikeout-rates as of late.
6. Honorable mentions:  Brandon Gomes, Bryan Augenstein, Merrill Kelly, Alex Colome, Jacob Partridge, Jason McEachern

Encouraging signs from short-season ball: Geisel De la Cruz (He finally was moved state-side and, despite his mediocre 2nd start, shows much promise), Taylor Guerrieri, Jeff Ames, Blake Snell (44.4 K%!!!),

Prospects to be falling

1. Braulio Lara ... His last 26.1 IP: 5.1 K/9, 6.8 BB/9, 6.04 FIP.
2. George Jensen ... His June was horrendous: 13.1 IP, 27 H (!!!), 22 ER, 13 BB, 9 K.
3. Joseph Cruz ... Once a pitcher with clearly above average control, he can't find the strikezone anymore. 
4. Neil Schenk and Scott Shuman ... The major league prospects of both of them are quickly fading. One doesn't have enough fire power for the higher levels and the other can't control his fire power.

Discouraging signs from short-season ball: Kevin James (Drafted in '09 with lots of promise, over his pro-career has 39 BB in 40.2 IP).

Glossary

All of the stats provided above are excluding the stats from the previous day. I preferrably use FanGraphs as source for the stats. Click on each stat for its explanation:

• Traditional stats: AVG, BB%, K%, K/BB-ratio, HR/9, WHIP and ERA.
• Newer stats: FIP, BABIP and LOB%.

Prospect Recap

How the top Rays prospects did on July 4th.

1. RHSP Chris Archer (DUR) - did not play
2. RHSP Taylor Guerrieri (HV) - did not play, see yesterday's moves for details
3. SS Hak-Ju Lee (MON) - 2-4, RBI, run scored, 28th stolen base
4. LHSP Enny Romero (CHA) - did not play
5. OF Josh Sale (BG) - 0-4 with 3 SO, fielding error (3rd)
6. RHSP Alex Colome (MON) - did not play
7. OF Drew Vettleson (BG) - 1-4 with a walk, 11th stolen base
8. OF Mikie Mahtook (CHA) - did not play, hasn't since running to wall on Monday
9. 3B Richie Shaffer – has not signed
10. 3B Tyler Goeddel (BG) - 1-4, 6th home run, RBI, run scored, fielding error (11th)

11. 2B Ryan Brett (BG) - 1-5
12. LHSP Felipe Rivero (BG) - loss, 2.0 IP, 1 R/ER, 2 hits, 2 SO, 0 BB, season ERA = 2.35
13. SS Jake Hager (BG) - 1-5 with 2 SO, throwing error (12th)
14. SS Tim Beckham (DUR) - 1-4 with a walk, home run, 2 RBI, run scored, throwing error (8th)
15. SS Derek Dietrich (CHA) - 2-5, double, 3 RBI
16. 1B Jeff Malm (BG) - 1-2 with a walk and HBP
17. LHSP Ryan Carpenter (BG) - did not play
18. SS Brandon Martin (PRI) - 1-3 with a walk, double, RBI, run scored
19. LHSP Blake Snell (PRI) - win, 5.0 IP, 1 R/ER, 4 hits, 4 SO, 2 BB, season ERA = 0.51
20. OF Brandon Guyer (TB) – 60-day DL, out for season

21. LHSP Alex Torres (DUR) - did not play
22. LHSP C.J. Riefenhauser (CHA) - loss, 3.1 IP, 4 R/ER, 7 hits, 2 SO, 1 BB, season ERA = 3.75
23. C Oscar Hernandez (PRI) - 1-4, 2 GIDP
24. RHSP Parker Markel (BG) - did not play
25. RHSP Jeff Ames (HV) - did not play
26. OF Granden Goetzman (PRI) - did not play, last played on Monday
27. RHRP Lenny Linsky (CHA) - 2.0 IP, 0 R/ER, 2 hits, 1 SO, 3 BB, season ERA = 7.56
28. OF James Harris (PRI) - 0-3, fielding error (1st)
29. OF Johnny Eierman (GCL) - 2-8, run scored, GIDP, fielding error (1st)
30. RHSP Wilking Rodriguez (CHA) - did not play, on 7-day DL

31. LHSP Grayson Garvin (CHA) - did not play, on 7-day DL
32. RHSP Jake Floethe (BG) - did not play
33. RHRP Josh Lueke (DUR) - did not play
34. OF Ty Morrison (MON) - 1-4, RBI
35. C/OF Stephen Vogt (DUR) - did not play
36. 1B/OF Henry Wrigley (DUR) - 3-4, double, run scored
37. DH/OF Kyeong Kang (MON) - 1-4, 10th home run, RBI, run scored, outfield assist
38. OF Todd Glaesmann (BG) - did not play, hasn't played since Monday HBP
39. RHSP Albert Suarez (CHA) - did not play

Holiday Moves

RHRP Nick Sawyer has been assigned to the Princeton Rays from the GCL Rays. The 20 year-old was the Rays 40th round pick in June out of Howard College in Big Spring, Texas. In 3 relief appearances for the GCL Rays Sawyer was 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Over 4.2 innings he struck out 6 while allowing 3 hits and 2 walks. Sawyer becomes the youngest member of the P-Rays bullpen and the 4th youngest pitcher on the team, behind starters Blake Snell, Eli Echarry and Jacob Faria.

Catcher Nevin Ashley played in his second injury rehab game for the GCL Rays today. He was 1-3 (single) with a walk, an RBI, and a run scored.

Reminder on Rays injury rehab assignments: OF Matt Joyce (left external oblique strain) begins his today with the Durham Bulls. He is scheduled to play today and tomorrow against the Norfolk Tides and will be re-evaluated afterward. OF Sam Fuld (right wrist surgery) will begin his assignment on Saturday with the Charlotte Stone Crabs at the Palm Beach Cardinals.

Catcher Alejandro Torres has been assigned to the Hudson Valley Renegades from the Charlotte Stone Crabs. Paper move until I hear otherwise. He's been with the Stone Crabs the past month and a half after starting the season with Bowling Green. Overall he's hitting .250/.321/.276 in 76 at-bats.

And here we go again, Rays infielder Jeff Keppinger was hit by a pitch near his left elbow in the first inning. The latest on his condition:

@RaysGameDay
Jeff Keppinger -- bruised left tricep. X-rays negative. Day-to-day.

Shortstop Benjamin Kline is off to a great start to his professional career. Through seven games with the GCL Rays he's batting .625/.640/.792 with no errors in the field. The Rays drafted the 23 year-old last month in the 32nd round (992nd overall) out of Embry-Riddle University in Daytona Beach. Here is a game-by-game look at his hitting streak:

Date     AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS
June 19   3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0
June 28   3   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
June 29   4   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0
June 29   4   1   4   3   0   0   1   0   0   3   0
June 30   3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0
July 03   4   0   3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1
July 04   3   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1
Totals   24   3  15   4   0   0   1   1   0   5   2

As expected, RHSP Taylor Guerrieri will miss a second start for the Hudson Valley Renegades. Sean T. McMann reported yesterday that Guerrieri would probably throw in the bullpen on Thursday, and the Renegades have now named RHP Reinaldo Lopez Thursday's starter. Lopez also filled in last Saturday, June 30th, when Guerrieri was a last minute scratch due to shoulder stiffness.

Updates as they come in. Enjoy your holiday!

Tuesday Moves

Joey Rickard

The Rays signed 9th round pick OF Joey Rickard and assigned him to the Hudson Valley Renegades.

Rays outfielder Matt Joyce will begin a two-game rehab assignment with the Durham Bulls on Wednesday.

Micheal Compton (@mcompton428) had this update today on Bowling Green outfielder Todd Glaesmann, who was hit by a pitch on his left hand in last night's game and sent to the hospital for x-rays:

Word is Todd Glaesmann's hand is not broken.

After the game Micheal added this:

Update on Todd Glaesmann: Brady Williams said hand isn't broken, but not sure on time table on when he will return. No DL move yet.

Sean T. McMann (@JournalSean), Hudson Valley Renegades beat writer, has this update on RHSP Taylor Guerrieri, who was scratched from his last scheduled start due to shoulder discomfort:

@HVRenegades mgr Jared Sandberg says @RaysBaseball prospect @TaylorG1201 is "going in the right direction," will throw in bullpen Thursday.

The Hudson Valley Renegades set a new attendance record of 5,523 at Dutchess Stadium on Tuesday.

After tonight's victory the Rays have 81 games left in the 2012 season. Only 18 of those games are against teams who are currently below .500:

Opponent           Win %   Home   Away   Total
Texas Rangers      .617      3      3       6
New York Yankees   .600      4      3       7
Los Angeles Angels .563      0      7       7
Chicago White Sox  .537      0      4       4
Baltimore Orioles  .532      6      6      12
Boston Red Sox     .525      7      2       9
Toronto Blue Jays  .506      6      4      10
Cleveland Indians  .506      4      4       8
Oakland A's        .481      3      3       6
Kansas City Royals .456      3      0       3
Minnesota Twins    .430      0      3       3
Seattle Mariners   .427      3      3       6
TOTALS             .522     39     42      81

Rays Top 30 Prospects - Summer 2012

31. Grayson Garvin, LHSP Charlotte Stone Crabs.
32. Jake Floethe, RHSP Bowling Green Hot Rods.
33. Josh Lueke, RHRP Durham Bulls.
34. Ty Morrison, OF Montgomery Biscuits.
35. Stephen Vogt, C/OF Durham Bulls.
36. Henry Wrigley, OF/1B Durham Bulls.
37. Kyeong Kang, OF Montgomery Biscuits.
38. Todd Glaesmann, OF Bowling Green Hot Rods.
39. Albert Suarez, RHSP Charlotte Stone Crabs.

This is our combined list, individual lists can be found here: BurGi, Scott, Kevin and Doug.

Monday Moves

Nevin Ashley

Catcher Nevin Ashley has been assigned to the GCL Rays on an injury rehab assignment (right hand) from the Durham Bulls. He went 0-3 with a strikeout today as the GCL Rays designated hitter.

RHSP Shane Dyer has been assigned back to the Montgomery Biscuits from the Durham Bulls.

RHRP Alex Koronis has been assigned to the Charlotte Stone Crabs from the Montgomery Biscuits.


July 2nd international signings:

- Catcher Erick Maria from the Dominican Republic for $300,000. Was Eric Otanez and 16 last year, now he's Maria and 18.

- RHP Jose Mujica, 16, out of Venezuela for $1,000,000. More on him.

- RHP Deivy Mendez, 16, from the Dominican Republic for $120,000.

- Catcher David Rodriguez, 16, out of Venezuela. More on him.

Not sure about Maria/Otanez, but none of the 16 year-olds will play in any games until next year since they signed 2013 contracts.


And here are the evening moves:

Craig Albernaz

Catcher Craig Albernaz was assigned to the Durham Bulls from the Hudson Valley Renegades. Paper move.

The Durham Bulls have activated outfielder Brandon Allen from the temporarily inactive list. Players can be put on the TI list for just about any reason. The drawback is that the player needs to miss 3 games before they are eligible to be activated, and Allen did.

The Durham Bulls activated RHRP Brandon Gomes and LHRP Cesar Ramos, back once again from the Rays.

Outfielder Jeff Salazar has been assigned to the Hudson Valley Renegades from the Durham Bulls. Paper move.

Jhonny Nunez

RHRP Jhonny Nunez was released from the Durham Bulls. He was 2-2 with a 6.57 ERA in 22 appearances this year, including 3 spot starts. In 37.0 innings he struck out 29 but walked 26 and allowed 8 home runs.

The Durham Bulls placed C/OF Stephen Vogt (symptoms of concussion) on the 7-day disabled list. He left Sunday's game after the second inning and went 0-1 in his only plate appearance, snapping his on-base streak of 27 consecutive games. From 5/31 to 6/30 Vogt reached base in every game he played in, going 40-110 (.364) with 6 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 19 RBI, and 17 BB with a .446 OBP.


And some post-game news:

Todd Glaesmann

Outfielder Sam Fuld (right wrist surgery) reportedly will begin an injury rehab assignment with the Charlotte Stone Crabs on Saturday. He was first placed on the disabled list by the Rays on April 2nd and was subsequently transferred to the 60-day DL on April 15th.

Charlotte Stone Crabs outfielder Mikie Mahtook left tonight's game in the first inning after crashing into the outfield wall.

Per Bowling Green beat reporter Micheal Compton (@mcompton428), Hot Rods outfielder Todd Glaesmann left tonight's game in the 8th inning after being hit by a pitch on his left hand. Compton tweeted this update after the game:

No official word on Glaesmann from Brady Williams post game. He got hit on top of hand and was sent to hospital for X-Rays.

Rays outfielder/DH Hideki Matsui left the game after the top of the 2nd inning with left hamstring tightness. More on his status from...

Manager Joe Maddon: “Hamstring tightness. Not on the first play where it came back on him. I think it was on the second play where he ran towards the wall in the corner. So he’s just a little bit tight. He did mention it of course so we’re not going to mess with that. So, we’ll know more tomorrow. But we’re just gonna say it’s tight for now."

Hideki Matsui: “The foul ball that Jeter hit, I was running after that and I felt like I pulled something; something tightened up. So when I came back to the dugout, they told me that for precautionary reasons to come out of the game. Right now I feel like it has calmed down, so I think it just tightened up. … I think it’s going to be a few days, but not to the point where I would go to the DL."

Future Considerations Podcast (Episode 26: Jake Hager, Short-Season Prospects & AL East Chatter)

Finally back! A lot to catch up on. We start with some Jake Hager under-the-radar talk, discuss some of the short-season prospect who have impressed early, and whip around the AL East.

Questions or comments? E-mail podcast@raysprospects.com

Music is from Isle of Q

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(This episode will not show up in the preview link right away, but if you subscribe it will download automatically)

Batting Leaders and Trailers

BurGi has the advanced metrics covered, so I thought it might be fun to track the batting leaders (and trailers) in the traditional stats. Through games from last night.

Plate Apps        Hits             High Average      Low Average       High OPS
Lee        357    Lee        86    Simon     .356    Teran     .192    Simon    1.043
Morrison   347    Morrison   86    Paez      .344    Thomas    .209    Sale      .961
Bortnick   323    Vettleson  84    Garko     .336    Motter    .215    Garko     .935
Vettleson  313    Anderson   81    4 tied    .315    Salazar   .216    Segovia   .888
2 tied     310    Luna       81                      Brignac   .217    Allen     .882
                                                                       Malm      .871
                                                                       Paez      .861
Doubles           Triples          Home Runs         Slugging %        Januario  .856
Malm        23    Dietrich    7    Wrigley     14    Simon     .589    Wrigley   .853
Seitzer     20    Morrison    7    Glaesmann   11    Sale      .557    Kang      .844
Wrigley     20    Bortnick    6    Kang         9    Januario  .522    Vogt      .829
Vettleson   16    5 tied      5    3 tied       8    Segovia   .518    Gimenez   .825
3 tied      15                                       Wrigley   .511    Anderson  .822
                                                                       
                                                                       
Walks             Hit By Pitch     On-Base %         Stolen Bases      Low OPS
Coon        35    Price      13    Simon     .454    Lee         27    Teran     .516
Kang        35    Dietrich   11    Garko     .439    Brett       23    Thomas    .565
Malm        34    Torrez     11    Paez      .411    Morrison    21    Caminero  .590
Bortnick    34    Morrison    9    Sale      .404    Bortnick    20    Querecuto .594
Figueroa    31    Mahtook     7    Allen     .382    Luna        18    Motter    .615
                                                                       Salazar   .618
                                                                       Tinoco    .620
Total Bases       RBI              Strikeouts        GIDP              Feliciano .622
Wrigley    139    Wrigley    51    Mangini     76    Feliciano   13    Colina    .631
Glaesmann  135    Glaesmann  45    Kang        75    Vettleson   10    Nommensen .631
Vettleson  127    Bortnick   42    Glaesmann   73    4 tied       9    Torrez    .634
Malm       125    Luna       39    Malm        72                      O'Malley  .636
2 tied     121    Vettleson  37    Morrison    69                      Brignac   .641

Minimum 100 plate appearances for rate stats. Players no longer in the organization are not included.

Friday Moves

RHP Matt Ramsey was assigned to the Princeton Rays from the GCL Rays. The Rays 19th round pick in the 2011 draft has yet to pitch as a pro due to Tommy John surgery.

LHSP Geisel De La Cruz was assigned to the GCL Rays from the DSL Rays. The 19 year-old was the DSL Rays top prospect, nearly making my top 30 list but settling for an honorable mention.

In his U.S. debut earlier today he threw 6.0 shutout innings, allowing only 3 singles and a walk while striking out 8 batters. Here are his career stats entering today, all with the DSL Rays:

Year  Age W L  ERA  G GS    IP  H  R ER HR BB SO  WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
2010   17 2 3 4.25 17  2  29.2 39 25 14  4 10 20 1.652 11.8  1.2  3.0  6.1
2011   18 1 3 2.02 13 12  58.0 45 23 13  1 16 59 1.052  7.0  0.2  2.5  9.2
2012   19 0 2 2.33  4  4  19.1 12  8  5  0  6 16 0.931  5.6  0.0  2.8  7.4
3 Seasons 3 8 2.69 34 18 107.0 96 56 32  5 32 95 1.196  8.1  0.4  2.7  8.0

----------------

As expected, the reports after the game are that the Rays will activate RHRPs Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta and RHSP Jeremy Hellickson for Saturday. They will send RHRP Brandon Gomes and LHRP Cesar Ramos to Durham. Gomes and Ramos will have 72 hours to report/be activated, so expect more Bulls moves in the next few days.

One last note, Farnsworth was on the 60-day DL so he will have to be added to the Rays 40-man roster before he can go on the 25-man. Since the 40-man is at 39 he can be added without any other moves that might cost the Rays a player (DFAing someone). Other players still on the 60-day DL are Sam Fuld, Jeff Niemann, Robinson Chirinos and Brandon Guyer, who is out for the year.

Scores and Highlights from 6/28

Syracuse Chiefs 14, Durham Bulls 3 
Henry Wrigley was 3 for 5 with a home run and 2 RBI's. Matt Mangini was 2 for 5 with a double. Reid Brignac was 2 for 4. Tim Beckham had a double and an RBI. Josh Lueke pitched 2 no-hit innings with 3 strikeouts.


Montgomery Biscuits 8, Jacksonville Suns 3
Mark Thomas was 3 for 4 with 2 runs scored. Hak Ju Lee was 2 for 4 with a double and a triple. Ty Morrison was 2 for 3 with a double and an RBI. Ryan Garko had a 3 run homer. Greg Sexton had a two run homer. Jake Thompson picked up the win and Neil Schenk the save.


Charlotte Stone Crabs 7, Fort Myers Miracle 5 Everyone in Stone Crabs lineup got atleast one hit. Steven Tinoco was 2 for 4 with a double and RBI's. Chris Murrill was 2 for 4 with an RBI. Luke Bailey was 2 for 4 with a double and an RBI. Victor Mateo was the winner. Theron Geith pitched 2 shut-out innings with 5 strikeouts. Chris Rearick got the save.


Lansing Lugnuts 8, Bowling Green Hot Rods 3
Alejandro Segovia was 3 for 4 with a double and an RBI. Juniel Querecuto was 2 for 4. Todd Glaesmann was 2 for 4. Drew Vettleson was 2 for 4 with a homer. Taylor Motter had a double and an RBI. Stayton Thomas pitched a no-hit inning.


Hudson Valley Renegades 9, Staten Island Yankees 3
Ryan Dunn was 3 for 4 with a double, 4 RBI's and 2 runs scored. Justin O'Conner was 2 for 5 with a double. Mike Williams had a triple and an RBI. Leonardo Reginatto drove home two runs. Thomas Coyle drove home a run. Jeff Ames allowed 1 unearned run and struck out 5 in 5 innings. Brandon Henderson pitched 2 shut-out innings for the win. Marcus Jensen had a no-hit inning of relief.


Princeton Rays 9, Bristol Sox 4
John Alexander was 3 for 4 with a double and 3 RBI's. Oscar Hernandez was 3 for 5 with a double and an RBI. Granden Goetzman was 2 for 5 with a double, 2 RBI's and 3 stolen bases. Reid Redman and William Argo each had an RBI. William Gabay pitched 1 shut-out innings for the win. Randy Davis and Jonathan Weaver each had a no-hit inning of relief.

GCL Rays 4, GCL Twins 3
Adderly Rosa had a double. Yoel Araujo had a triple. Armadno Araiza and Leopoldo Correa each had an RBI. Dayne Quist pitched a no-hit inning for the win. Lucas Goodgion had a no-hit inning. Alex Moshier got the save with a no-hit final frame.


GCL Twins 2, GCL Rays 1
Ben Kline was 2 for 3. The bullpen combo of Nick Sawyer, Oscar Armenta and Jordan Harrsison provided 3 2/3 shut-out innings of relief.


VSL Rays 6, VSL Phillies 2
Jose Paez was 2 for 5 with a triple and an RBI. Iago Januario had a double and an RBI. Kevin Barrioss had a double and 2 RBI's. Kevin Cazorla was the winner. Jose Alvarado and Johan Marval chipped in with 2 shut-out innings each.


DSL Astros 11, DSL Rays 4 
Joel Jumes was 2 for 4. Anthony Mojica was 2 for 4 with a double. Alexander Simon had a triple. Julio Herrera had a double. Luis Mercedes pitched a no-hit inning.

Thursday Moves

Chris Archer

- The Rays activated DH Luke Scott off the 15-day DL. He recently finished a rehab assignment with the Bulls,.and is in the Rays lineup tonight.

- The Rays optioned RHSP Chris Archer to the Durham Bulls to make room for Scott.

- After the Scott/Archer moves the roster remains at 24 (due to the suspension). RHRPs Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta and RHSP Jeremy Hellickson are expected to be activated by Saturday, so 2 more moves will be necessary to clear space.

- With all of the rain in Port Charlotte playing havoc with the schedule the Stone Crabs have adjusted their rotation as follows:

Thursday - RH Victor Mateo
Friday - LH C.J. Riefenhauser
Saturday - LH Braulio Lara
Sunday game 1 - LH Enny Romero
Sunday game 2 - RH Albert Suarez

- RH Jim Paduch is tonight's scheduled starter for Durham. The rotation after that is listed as 'TBA' by the Bulls.

I will update this if there are any more moves this evening.

-------------

No more transactions but did see a nice article about LHRP Brett Blaise of the GCL Rays, an NDFA out of Belhaven University:

"They told me over the phone that they were impressed with what they saw live in my starts at Belhaven and were surprised I didn't get drafted," Blaise said. "My parents were so excited. My dad has been here already when he travels for work and my mom loves baseball more than I do so she gets to say her son is a pro ballplayer."
...
Since making that transition move on and off the field as a professional baseball player, the left-handed pitcher is doing something he hadn't done since leaving high school -- be a relief pitcher out of the bullpen. This past season Blaise posted a record of 4-4 in 2012 and made 15 starts with Belhaven, which ended up being the third most starts in a single season in school history.
...
The Rays organization has allowed him to begin his career simply throwing the way he's comfortable with before their coaches begin to work with any mechanical or philosophical defects that pop up along the way. "The Rays have a 30-day rule where they let you do it the way you've always done it for that amount of time and then they go over your weaknesses in a more constructive manner," Blaise said.

Minor League Breakdown: The Hitting Prospects

Overall state of the farm

Excellent times for prospect followers with 7 state-side teams and 2 foreign teams playing (nearly) every day. With data for all 7 state-side teams now available, one major weakness in the Rays minor league system can be identified. This weakness has been THE STRENGTH of the system over the last couple of years. This year, though, the upper-level pitching is more than mediocre. Each of the 4 full-season ball affiliates have seen bad pitching performances over the last week. And while the Hot Rods still are 4th in pitching, all other three full season affiliates remain LAST in their respective leagues. Short-season ball pitching, though, looks much better. Now we all know why the Rays hung on to their pitching depth.
 

OPS-CH and ERA-CH stands for the OPS and ERA change since the last minor league breakdown.

Prospects stats overview

For the first time, I've included the stats from short season ball. They especially - due to small sample sizes - dominate the upper and lower parts of the following list. On the hot and cold lists after the table, I've not included them, though, as I only start talking about performances when at least 50 PA's have been taken.
Here is the data:

Prospects on the rise

1. Mikie Mahtook ... He was the best hitting prospect in the system over the last 2 weeks with a .550 wOBA and 1.249 OPS over 33 PA's. And while this sample is very, very small, he is (despite still very limited power) trending upwards: April: .688 OPS, May: .775, June: .803.
2. Matt (or is it James) Rice ... .438 OBP and .926 OPS in June and even better in the last two weeks (1.183 OPS in 20 PA's).
3. Cameron Seitzer ... He finally shows what I was hoping for from the start: Advanced plate discipline and hittability. The power - only 1 HR on the season - still has to come, though.
4. Stephen Vogt ... He continues to crush AAA-pitching. How long does it take for him to get the next chance at the MLB level?
5. Reid Brignac ... Two weeks ago he was #1 on the falling-prospects-list. Since then: 48 PA's, 1.036 OPS, .464 wOBA.
6. Hak Yu Lee and Tyler Bortnick ... The Biscuits every-day MIF are improving. Especially Tyler Bortnick has an excellent June (.909 OPS, 11:12 BB:K-rate; Lee: .796 OPS, .375 OBP).
7. Brandon Allen and Ryan Garko ... The major league insurance first basemen are hitting very well in the minors. Brandon Allen might simply be a AAAA-guy as he seams to strike out too much for the major league level. 

Honorable mentions: Jake Hager, Robby Price, Omar Luna, Cody Rogers and Jeff Malm.
Encouraging signs from short-season ball: Ryan Dunn, Johnny Eierman and Jake DePew.

Prospects to be falling

1. Jesus Feliciano ... Not good enough for a veteran in AAA. His last 43 PA's: .448 OPS, .205 wOBA.
2. Juniel Querecuto ... He is young for full-season ball, but a .316 OPS and .166 wOBA over 31 PA's has to put your name on this list.
3. Taylor Motter ... While Cameron Seitzer shows improvements, Motter is not. He is stuck with an OPS below .600 and no power showings to speak of.
4. Joshua Sale ... We never imagined for him to hit for a 1.250 OPS (as he did in May) all season long. Nevertheless, he seems to be on a bit of a cold streak with a .573 OPS over his last 28 PA's. The still good plate discipline doesn't make me worry, though.
5. Tyler Goeddel ... Excellent games are way-too-often followed up by nights where he can't hit anything. Inconsistency is nothing that we can't forgive him with his young age, though.

Discouraging signs from short-season ball: Yoel Araujo, Deshun Dixon, John Alexander (homered last night, though).


Glossary

All of the stats provided above are excluding the stats from the previous day. I preferrably use FanGraphs as source for the stats. Click on each stat for its explanation:

• Traditional stats: AVG, OBP, OPS, BB% and K%.
• Newer stats: ISO, wOBA, wRAA, BABIP and Spd.

Scores and Highlights from 6/26

Syracuse Chiefs 3, Durham Bulls 2 
Chris Gimenez was 3 for 5 with a double and a run scored. Tim Beckham and Jeff Salazar had an RBI. Bulls pitchers combined for 13 strikeouts. Matt Torra struck out 6. Kyle Farnsworth pitched a shut-out inning of rehab work.


Montgomery Biscuits 7, Jacksonville Suns 6 
Kyeong Kang was 3 for 5 with 2 doubles and 2 RBI's. Ryan Garko was 3 for 5. Hak-Ju Lee was 2 for 5 with an RBI. Mark Thomas had a double and 2 RBI's. Alex Koronis pitches 3 shut-out innings. Neil Schenk had a no-hit inning for the win. Adam Liberatore threw 2 shut-out innings for the save. 



Charlotte Stone Crabs, Brevard County Manatees (Game One, Suspended) 
Rains from Tropical Storm Debby forced game one of the doubleheader to be suspended 3-2 in the fifth. It will be resumed on Wednesday as part of a tripleheader.



Charlotte Stone Crabs, Brevard County Manatees (Game Two, Cancelled)
Game Two of the doubleheader was cancelled due to Tropical Storm Debby. It will not be rescheduled.



West Michigan White Caps 13, Bowling Green Hot Rods 11 
Drew Vettleson was 4 for 5 with a double and 4 RBI's. Ryan Brett, Josh Sale, Matt Rice and Tyler Goeddel each had two hits. Todd Glaesmann had a double and 3 RBI's. Andrew Bellatti had 5 strikeouts in 3 2/3 innings.


Hudson Valley Renegades 4, Brooklyn Cyclones 2
Thomas Coyle was 3 for 4 with a double and 2 runs scored. Deshun Dixon had a double and 2 RBI's. Matt Spann recorded all three of the Renegades strikeouts. Dylan Floro picked up the win and Marcus Jensen the save.


Greeneville Astros 8, Princeton Rays 7
Brandon Martin was 3 for 4 with 2 runs scored. Julian Morrillo was 3 for 5 with 3 RBI's. Omar Narvaez was 2 for 5 with 2 doubles. Darryl George had a double and 2 RBI's. Reid Redman and William Argo each had an RBI.



GCL Rays, GCL Red Sox (Postponed: Rain)
Rain from Tropical Storm Debby caused the GCL Rays to be suspended for the fourth consecutive game.



VSL Mariners 12, VSL Rays 6 
Iago Januario was 2 for 4 with an RBI. Nohisglin Rivero was 2 for 4. Kevin Barrios had 2 RBI's.



DSL Indians 23, DSL Rays 12 
Ninth loss in a row for the DSL Rays. Alexander Simor was 4 for 5 with 2 doubles and 4 RBI's. Ismael Aguero was 3 for 5 with 2 doubles and 4 RBI's. Emanuel Paulio was 2 for 5 with a double, home run and 2 RBI's.

Tuesday Moves

Jake Floethe

OF/1B Leslie Anderson (groin) has been placed on the 7-day DL by the Durham Bulls.

The Rays have assigned 2nd round pick SS Spencer Edwards to the GCL Rays.

It sounds like RHSP Matt Buschmann will remain with Durham instead of returning to Montgomery. It isn't clear yet whether Buschmann will stay in the Bulls rotation. Nick Barnese has come off the DL to replace Buschmann in Montgomery.

RHSP Jake Floethe was activated from the 7-day DL by the Bowling Green Hot Rods to start tonight's game. No corresponding move has been announced.

Will update with any post-game transactions.

Future Considerations Podcast (Episode 25: Text Edition)

Kevin: It turns out when you don’t record a podcast for three weeks, you get a little rusty and forget some minor details like “turning the recording program on.” My bad. So while episode 25 of the podcast is lost to the Skype graveyard, we still wanted to give our thoughts on the draft, short-season ball starting, and our top 30 prospect lists.

Let’s start with the draft and Richie Shaffer up top. It seems like for the second straight year the Rays were able to grab a guy who didn’t seem likely to fall to them. Shaffer was arguably the best college hitter (Catcher Mike Zunino at #4 obviously has the positional advantage) in the class this year, so I think the Rays have to be happy to have him. Good hit tool, good power, good eye, maybe he’s not elite in any of those categories, but more than enough for a corner spot. Whereas Mikie Mahtook sort of plays above his tools, Shaffer is the better raw hitter. And he’s going to have to move to a COF spot in the future if he remains in the Rays organization.

Scott: Trying out this not-cast will be interesting.  I really like Shaffer, and the Rays are fortunate he fell to them.  We also saw Stephen Piscotty fall further than expected, so apparently there was something about the college third basemen this year.  Shaffer has something a lot of teams covet, and that’s right-handed power.  Like you said, his power potential will profile in a corner whereas Mahtook may not, and it seems like that’s where both of them will end up, Mahtook because of tool limitations, and Shaffer because the Rays hope to have third base covered for the next few years.  He competed in the ACC which is rising as a baseball conference, so you hope that he can move quickly.

Kevin: How did you feel about the rest of their draft? I would’ve liked to see them take a high school arm in the second round over Spencer Edwards. His tools package is nice but he’s old for his class and we’ve talked about how older high schoolers tend to be at a disadvantage. The short-season pitching ranks are pretty shallow past Taylor Guerrieri, and while Nolan Gannon and Damion Carroll are nice additions, it would’ve been nice to get another upper-cruster. I don’t mind the toolsy upside plays in Edwards, Andrew Toles, and Bralin Jackson, but it seems like another pitcher would’ve balanced it out a little better.

Scott: Yeah, I think they could’ve done more in the way of high school pitching.  Gannon and Carroll are certainly arms to watch, but they’re not players you hang your hat on in a draft class.  There are still some other pitchers in the lower minors like Henderson, Spann and Kendall that you can’t write off yet, but you can never have enough high school pitching depth.  

With the position players they drafted, at least they went for up the middle athletes.  With the depth the organization seems to have all around the diamond, going for the high upside players is the right thing to do.  Edwards may not stay at shortstop, but he can stay up the middle in center field.  Toles is a player I like in this draft.  He combines great speed with instincts on the bases and field, and they hope he can hit enough to play every day.  The Baseball America scouting report compares him to Michael Bourn, but something that sets Bourn apart is his ability to get on base which makes him so good leading off.  We’ll see if Toles can develop those skills too.

Kevin: Switching gears, we each did our mid-season top 30 list on the site this past week. You ranked Taylor Guerrieri #1 (this was before his first start with Hudson Valley), was that pretty much a case of nobody in full-season ball stepping up and grabbing it? I went with Chris Archer (again, before his last start) even though he hasn’t really taken a step forward with his control/command. Even before he got the call-up it was pretty obvious that Archer was going to provide value this year, even if it’s in a relief role down the road. His walk numbers didn’t balloon like Alex Torres’ and his stuff is still as good as anyone else’s.

Two other guys I noticed you were pretty high on: Brandon Martin at #8 and Parker Markel at #11. Thoughts on those two?

Scott: Martin is a guy I’ve been staking my precious e-reputation on since he was drafted.  I really like him even though he doesn’t have much pro experience to date.  He’s going to be able to stick at shortstop, and I believe in his bat.  Shortstops that can hit are rare commodities, and given time I believe Martin can be in that group.  He has the home run this year at Princeton, but otherwise it’s been a slow start.  Markel I would say has been unimpressive, and the rankings of everyone else reflects that probably more accurately than he did.  He has good stuff, but for a second year his strikeout rate doesn’t reflect that.  He needs to be better, and if he can stay healthy, he has a nice opportunity the next two months.

Going back to the #1 discussion, it’s a wide open race right now.  For me, I had Guerrieri there more because of Hak-Ju Lee’s struggles.  Not that I’m writing him off, but we’re closing in on a full season in AA of not performing for him.  He’s still young and has plenty of time to turn it around, but he needs to get hot.  Guerrieri has great stuff, and now we’re finally getting a chance to see him in box scores.  Archer is another guy I think it’s fair to put up there.  Lately, he’s done a much better job throwing strikes, and if he’s making improvements and not just going through a hot phase, you have a pitcher with great stuff teetering on truly being ML-ready.  Shaffer I think should be in the discussion too, but they need to get him signed.

Kevin: Lee is actually having a pretty nice month of June for Montgomery, so hopefully that’s able to get him going. But unless he just totally kills it in the second half, I agree that he’s probably not in the mix as the #1 guy. Doing a mid-season list makes it pretty tough to rank the guys from short-season ball, specifically the big 2011 crop. Granden Goetzman, James Harris, Johnny Eierman, Grayson Garvin, Jeff Ames, Lenny Linsky and Blake Snell all got bunched up in the 19-28 range.
I’m a little higher on Ames than most, and lower on Garvin, because you don’t really have to project on Ames’ fastball. It’s got very good present velocity, and while his iffy secondary stuff might make him move to the bullpen down the line, I can see the fastball being a legit major-league rotation pitch to work off of. Blake Snell has been really good through two starts with Princeton, it feels like he gets forgotten about. A breakout year by him could give the Rays an exciting up-and-coming 1-2 with Guerrieri. But for the all the high schools, I think we really need to see them hit outside of a small sample in the GCL to see who separates themselves.

Scott: Yeah, the strength of the system is in the lower levels where all of the 2011 picks are, and only a handful of them have even played in a full-season league.  You can only look at the scouting reports and see which player has attributes you like.  It’s exciting that short-season ball is going now, especially for the Rays.  There are so many reasons to check the box scores, and the organization spreads the fun around with three affiliates that started this month.

I could certainly come around on Ames over the last two months, but the reports from the draft last year indicated reliever.  I’m usually inclined to rank relievers lower than usual, but if he looks good with Hudson Valley, opinions could certainly change.  One of the most interesting things in short-season ball to me is Johnny Eierman in left field.  When the Hudson Valley and Princeton rosters were released, I think we all figured that Eierman wasn’t listed because they wanted him to play shortstop and not have to share the position with Brandon Martin.  I’m not really sure why he’s in left field.  Even if he’s probably not going to stick at shortstop, he’s athletic enough that I’m surprised he’s been banished to left field.

Monday Moves

- The Charlotte Stone Crabs activated RHP Chris Andujar from the 7-day disabled list. He had been pitching for the GCL Rays on a rehab assignment. When the GCL began there were three rehabbing pitchers, all of whom have finished and moved on: Andujar, Nick Barnese (to Montgomery), and Lenny Linsky (to Charlotte).

- RHRP Kris Carlson has been assigned to the Hudson Valley Renegades from the GCL Rays.

- DH Luke Scott has been sent to the Durham Bulls on a major league rehab assignment.

- OF Craige Lyerly has been assigned to the Hudson Valley Renegades from the Charlotte Stone Crabs in a paper move.

- The Rays optioned LHSP Alex Torres back to the Durham Bulls.

- RHRP Kyle Farnsworth will continue his major league rehab assignment with the Durham Bulls. He was scheduled to pitch the past two days for Charlotte but those games were rained out by Debbie. In four appearances with the Stone Crabs he pitched 4.0 innings allowing one run on three hits with two strikeouts and no walks.

The College World Series ended tonight with Arizona beating South Carolina. That means 9th rounder Joey Rickard of Arizona is able to sign. Once his bonus is set there shouldn't be any uncertainties in negotiations with 1st rounder Richie Shaffer.

Also, sorry for the lack of posts. Busy few days for me, and Jim has his hands full with Debbie. I'll get the final Top 30 list posted soon and we'll get back to normal. In the mean time use this as an open thread. And the Depth Chart is always up-to-date on transactions, even if we haven't posted them on the front page.

Friday Rays Org Moves

RHP Damion Carroll, Rays 2012 6th round pick, assigned to the GCL Rays.

RHP Kris Carlson, 2012 35th round pick, assigned to the Charlotte Stone Crabs from the GCL Rays.

C Chad Nacapoy, 2012 38th round pick, assigned to the Princeton Rays.

Charlotte Stone Crabs placed RHRP Nate Garcia on the 7-day disabled list.

Durham Bulls activated SS Tim Beckham from the restricted list.

Rays optioned OF Rich Thompson to the Durham Bulls.

Rays recalled RHRP Brandon Gomes from the Durham Bulls.

Rays placed OF Matt Joyce on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to June 20th (lower back tightness).

Rays activated IF Jeff Keppinger from the 15-day disabled list. Was on a rehab assignment with the Durham Bulls.

Rays designated IF Drew Sutton for assignment. This removes him from the 40-man roster.

Rays activated recently claimed IF Brooks Conrad. He is added to both the 40-man roster and the Rays 25-man roster.

Rays RHRP Joel Peralta dropped the appeal of his 8-game suspension. Rays will operate with a 24-man roster until the suspension ends.

Top 30 Prospect List: Doug

1. LHSP Enny Romero
- Charlotte Stone Crabs - 21.4
- international free agent June 2, 2008
- #1 came down to 4 pitchers, ended up picking Romero over Colome
- doesn't have the upside of Guerrieri, but has tract record of success and health
- 140 strikeouts in 114.0 IP for Bowling Green last year
- K-rate down so far this year in Charlotte, but has only allowed 52 hits (and 1 HR) in 73.0 IP, walk rate improving, 3.08 ERA, .208 batting average against
- works off his dominant mid-90s fastball, developing offspeed pitches, size (still filling out), workhorse so far, still very young, everything you want from a lefty starter
- inconsistent mechanics only issue going forward

2. RHSP Alex Colome
- Montgomery Biscuits - 23.4
- international free agent March 20, 2007
- plus stuff (mid-90s fastball and curve), still working on refining it for command
- 157.2 IP between Charlotte and Montgomery last year was 2nd only to Matt Moore in Rays minors, only allowed 119 hits (6.8 per 9)
- has been a workhorse throughout his career until oblique injury in April, limited to 6 starts for Montgomery but has struck out 34 batters in 25.2 innings
- now healthy, expect dominant 2nd half in Montgomery

3. RHSP Chris Archer
- Tampa Bay Rays - 23.7
- 5th round (161st overall) 2006 by Cleveland Indians
- acquired in Matt Garza trade with Chicago Cubs on January 8, 2011
- blend of projection, past performance, age-to-level
- inconsistent, dominates at times, poor command others
- can't believe he ended up this high really, but he's shown glimpses and still has more ceiling if command improves
- org has faith too, which means a lot, but I think he ends up a reliever

4. RHSP Taylor Guerrieri
- Hudson Valley Renegades - 19.5
- 1st round (24th overall) 2011
- pure potential pick, but incredible potential
- couldn't put him #1 with no pro experience, expect him there by end of season if performance is as good as expected
- debut could not have gone much better, doesn't need to be that good for next 2 1/2 months to end up #1, just solid

5. OF Drew Vettleson
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 20.9
- supplemental 1st round (42nd overall) 2010
- good first year with Princeton, skipped Hudson Valley to Bowling Green this year and hasn't missed a beat
- .289/.357/.434 line through 249 at-bats with the Hot Rods
- consistent all-around player, defense gives him the edge over any other position player now
- not as much upside as Sale due to power, but very high floor (similar to Mahtook), no weaknesses, will hit for average and enough power for corner OF

6. OF Josh Sale
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 20.9
- 1st round (17th overall) 2010
- projection pick
- showed little at Princeton last year in his first pro action
- remained in extended spring training working on mechanics, skipped Hudson Valley and made late start at Bowling Green
- has been the top hitter in org since reaching Bowling Green: .305/.414/.621 in 30 games
- highest ceiling of any position player due to power bat
- impact bat if maintains consistent mechanics, could challenge Guerrieri for #1 overall after season

7. SS Hak-Ju Lee
- Montgomery Biscuits - 21.6
- international free agent May 29, 2008, by the Chicago Cubs
- acquired in Matt Garza trade with Chicago Cubs on January 8, 2011 (only player acquired who hasn't played for Rays)
- age-to-level and potential pick
- fantastic Rays org debut with Charlotte last year: .832 OPS in 400 ABs
- has dropped in last year due to performance since promotion to Mongtomery: .229/.301/.311 in 380 ABs
- missed big opportunity to replace Beckham at Durham during suspension
- huge upside if bat comes around, which it should with his athleticism and past success, but small sample size concerns aren't that small any more

8. OF Mikie Mahtook
- Charlotte Stone Crabs - 22.5
- 1st round (31st overall) 2011
- great debut in Arizona Fall League
- Rays aggressively started him in Charlotte where he has disappointed with lack of power and on-base skills
- early problems not as concerning due to history of success against top college competition
- very athletic, no defensive concerns, just needs bat to come around
- ceiling isn't as high as some others, but very high floor

9. 3B Tyler Goeddel
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 19.6
- supplemental 1st round (41st overall) 2011
- projection and age-to-level pick
- young for A-ball with Rays org, first high school draft pick to skip short-season entirely since Young/Upton/Dukes era
- slumping of late, still top 3B prospect by far in the system, nice size, should be able to stay at third
- high ceiling but needs power to develop to reach it, plenty of time considering age

10. SS Jake Hager
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 19.2
- 1st round (32nd overall) 2011
- projection and age-to-level pick
- will stick at shortstop
- skipped Hudson Valley in a bit of a surprise, yet hitting as well as Princeton last year at 2 levels higher
- stats not outstanding but fine in light of age (youngest player on Hot Rods roster), but improving after rough April
- high upside, future only limited by how much he hits

11. 3B Richie Shaffer
- unsigned - 21.2
- 1st round (25th overall) 2012
- projection pick
- little doubt he signs, reportedly one of the top college bats in the draft
- issue is whether he's a legitimate third baseman

12. SS Brandon Martin
- Princeton Rays - 18.8
- supplemental 1st round (38th overall) 2011
- pure projection pick
- athleticism to stick at shortstop
- question is the bat, hit better than other high picks (Goetzman and Harris) at GCL last year

13. 2B Ryan Brett
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 20.6
- 3rd round (98th overall) 2010
- performance and age-to-level pick
- .306/.366/.446 batting line over 3-year career, decent walk and strikeout rate, 52 SB in 142 games
- skipped Hudson Valley and has continued to hit in full-season ball, .800 OPS as a second baseman
- significantly reduced errors this year compared to Princeton
- limited upside, but value in tools to hit leadoff with some pop

14. LHSP Ryan Carpenter
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 21.8
- 7th round (240th overall) 2011
- great numbers in limited innings for Hudson Valley after signing last year
- solid if not spectacular so far for Bowling Green
- projects as a solid, workhorse lefty
- doesn't have the upside of other pitchers on this list, but has higher floor

15. LHSP Felipe Rivero
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 20.9
- international free agent July 30, 2008
- performance and age-to-level pick
- has had a better than expected full-season debut with Bowling Green after skipping over Hudson Valley, great stats across the board, improved velocity
- has developed mid-90s fast ball and plus curve, issue is whether he has durability to stick as starter due to size

16. LHSP Blake Snell
- Princeton Rays - 19.5
- supplemental 1st round (52nd overall) 2011
- pure potential pick
- tall left-hander had a decent debut in GCL last year, could move up several spots with solid summer in Princeton

17. 1B Jeff Malm
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 21.6
- 5th round (169th overall) 2009
- emerging power bat, has improved his OPS at every level as he's moved up over 4-year career, hitting .295/.387/.493 for Hot Rods
- issue is whether he's limited to 1B, if so everything rides on hitting and power
- encouraging that he's played 11 games in the outfield for Bowling Green this year with only one error

18. OF Brandon Guyer
- Tampa Bay Rays (60-day disabled list) - 26.3
- 5th round (157th overall) 2007 by Chicago Cubs
- acquired in Matt Garza trade with Chicago Cubs on January 8, 2011
- would be top 5 except for uncertainty due to shoulder
- love the bat, athleticism to play anywhere in the OF
- if he comes back healthy he'll be at least a 4th OF, probably a regular

19. SS Derek Dietrich
- Charlotte Stone Crabs - 22.9
- 2nd round (79th overall) 2010
- shortstops who hit for power are usually ranked higher
- high strikeout and low walk rates combined with doubts about future position make him a tough rank
- already played 11 games at 2B for Charlotte this season

20. RHSP Jeff Ames
- Hudson Valley Renegades - 21.3
- supplemental 1st round (42nd overall) 2011
- projection pick
- struggled in limited innings for Princeton last year
- 44 strikeouts in 35.1 career innings
- expecting breakout performance in Hudson Valley after offseason work, possible top 10 entering 2013

21. LHSP C.J. Riefenhauser
- Charlotte Stone Crabs - 22.3
- 20th round (611th overall) 2010
- fantastic in Bowling Green rotation before struggling in Charlotte after promotion last year, seemed destined for bullpen
- has clawed his way back into Charlotte rotation, 73-17 SO-BB and 2.98 ERA in 57.1 IP are hard to beat
- keeps runners off the basepaths with career WHIP of 1.077 (7.3 hits/9 and 2.4 BB/9)

22. RHSP Jake Floethe
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 23.0
- 6th round (210th overall) 2011
- performance pick
- surprisingly good in pro debut for Hudson Valley last year and Bowling Green this year
- excellent hit and walk rates, only 1 HR allowed in 91.1 IP, K-rate is a concern going forward

23. SS Tim Beckham
- Durham Bulls (suspended list) - 22.3
- 1st round (1st overall) 2008
- age-to-level and position pick
- suspension isn't good, but performance is bigger worry
- hitting .238/.285/.400 in 37 AAA games
- best stop so far was Montgomery in first half of 2011, even there his bat wasn't anything special (.734 OPS)

24. LHSP Alex Torres
- Durham Bulls - 24.5
- international free agent January 12, 2005, by the Los Angeles Angels
- acquired in Scott Kazmir trade with Los Angeles Angels on August 28, 2009
- having a worse year in Durham than Beckham, recent return to rotation only saving grace

25. OF/C Stephen Vogt
- Durham Bulls - 27.6
- 12th round (365th overall) 2007
- disasterous 0-17 MLB debut aside, he's a career .303/.361/.452 hitter who can play a passable catcher

26. OF/1B Henry Wrigley
- Durham Bulls - 25.8
- 14th round (418th overall) 2005
- not pandering, a performance pick
- doubt he's a major league regular, but bat will get him there, if only he could play a legit 3B
- only a career .720 OPS hitter (.257/.298/.422), but has improved at every level as he moved up the past 6 seasons:
A- = .639
A = .663
A+ = .752
AA = .765
AAA = .784

27. OF Granden Goetzman
- Princeton Rays - 19.5
- 2nd round (75th overall) 2011
- projection pick, rise depends on power

28. C Oscar Hernandez
- Princeton Rays - 18.9
- international free agent August 14, 2009
- couldn't have done much better in VSL, but need to see performance in U.S. before ranking any higher

29. RHSP Parker Markel
- Bowling Green Hot Rods - 21.7
- 39th round (1,181st overall) 2010
- nice 2011 in Hudson Valley with less than 7 H/9
- hasn't handled full-season debut well, hittable and K-rate unremarkable
- relies on power sinker, groundball pitcher

30. RHSP Wilking Rodriguez
- Charlotte Stone Crabs - 22.3
- international free agent February 26, 2007
- expected him to be with Colome now, but shoulder surgery in October of 2010 derailed 2011, and 2012 hasn't been special
- probably his last time on a list


Just missed: RHSP Roberto Gomez at Bowling Green and RHSP Albert Suarez at Charlotte.

One from each team that didn't make it but are worth watching:

Durham - RHP Bryan Augenstein
Montgomery - OF Ty Morrison
Charlotte - LHRP Chris Rearick
Bowling Green - C Matt Rice
Hudson Valley - LHSP Matt Spann
Princeton - OF James Harris
GCL - OF Johnny Eierman
VSL - 1B Iago Januario
DSL - LHSP Geisel De La Cruz