Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Minor League Breakdown: The Hitting Prospects

As it has been only 4 days since my last MiL-Breakdown I'm going to leave the view at the MiL-standings out, but overall the Rays MiL organisations have gone a mere 11:15 over the last 4 days.

Prospects stats overview

From now on I will also post the stats of the average MiL-hitter in the Rays system. This should help in order to identify some trends of the system. The stat-line of the average Rays MiL-hitter is at the bottom of the following chart. You can see (by the colours of the cells), that the Rays minor leaguers are above average in some categories while they struggle in others: 
  • OBP, wOBA and Spd are above average. 
  • ISO and OPS are below average.
This gives us a picture of the typical Rays minor leaguer. The prototypical Rays minor leaguer has a knack for getting on base and then using his above average speed on the basepaths. As wOBA also includes baserunning, the typical Rays hitter fares better in this category than in OPS. The below average OPS (despite above average OBP) is a result of the clearly below average ISO (average across leagues should be around .145). The low ISO shows that the Rays are below average in the power department. Only 30 of the stat-lines below have an ISO north of .145. The leaderboard in this category looks as follows (min. 50 PA's):
  1. Alejandro Segovia ... .299 ISO
  2. Oscar Hernandez ... .259 ISO 
  3. Kyeong Kang ... .247 ISO
  4. Joshua Sale ... .237 ISO
  5. Henry Wrigley ... .236 ISO
  6. Justin O'Conner ... .234 ISO
  7. Brandon Allen ... .229 ISO
  8. Brandon Martin ... .224 ISO (SURPRISE!)
  9. Jeff Malm ... .207 ISO
Here is the data (the horizontal black line shows you where the average Rays MiL hitter would be ... sorted by wOBA):

Prospects on the rise
  1. Alejandro Segovia ... While also having been strong before, he is lights out since mid-June: 1.286 OPS, .524 wOBA. And his BABIP is not very high either.
  2. Henry Wrigley ... He is really making a push for the majors right now. Even his K% is respectable with 21.4% on the season. His last 47 PA's: 1.261 OPS, .547 wOBA.
  3. Oscar Hernandez ... Next to Josh Sale's '12 performance, I was most looking forward to and keen about Oscar Hernandez' performance in '12. And man, what a start: With 18 years of age in Princeton, he has a .916 OPS with a more than solid approach at the plate (8.2 BB%, 14.8K%). While the sample size is still small, I like what I see. 
  4. Tim Beckham ... Hopefully he has learned from his mistakes and hopefully he can continue to play like he did as of late. His last 49 PA's: .986 OPS, .443 wOBA.
  5. Ty Morrison ... Above average speed, good on-base skills and a hot bat as of late make him the #5 on this list. He was another tools-guy whom I was waiting to break out. And while it's way too early to say that he broke out, he is doing well in AA.
  6. Darryl George ... The first 67 PA's couldn't have gone much better for Darryl George. And while his excellent results might be driven by an unsustainable high batting average, this is still an encouraging sign.
  7. Jake Hager ... He continues to impress. Last 46 PA's: .961 OPS | Last 82 PA's: .952 OPS | Last 157 PA's: .934 OPS | Last 199 PA's: .861 OPS. Also, his plate discipline is getting better and better (June: 10 BB vs. 8 K).
  8. Todd Glaesmann ... His progress over the season is excellent: April: .737 OPS | May: .766 | June: .900 | July: 1.042
  9. Brandon Martin ...  Like almost all other early 1st (and 1st supp) round picks from last year (Guerrieri, Snell, Hager, Mahtook, Ames), Brandon Martin is also doing very well. He even shows some (mostly gap-to-gap) power.
Honorable mentions: Cole Figueroa, Willie Argo, Greg Sexton, Luke Maile.
Encouraging signs from short-season ball (less than 50 PA's): Benjamin Kline, Andrew Toles (only 22 PA's), Omar Narvaez (excellent plate discipline).

Prospects to be falling
  1. James Harris Jr. ... Since a Brandon Allen-like start to the '12 season, it has gone nowhere but down for James Harris. No power, no ability to get on base and no ability to even hit the ball have been shown yet. The result: .522 OPS (last 39 PA's: .412 OPS).
  2. Deshun Dixon ... Except for his excellent BB:K ratio, he is not doing much at the plate. 
  3. Joshua Sale ... Maybe it was injury related (as he is on the DL right now), but his results as of late haven't been the same as before mid-June.
  4. Matt Mangini ... With this kind of performance he is no factor for the major league club. He is no prospect either, therefore ... .
Discouraging signs from short-season ball: Cesar Perez, Yoel Araujo (way too early, but 51.5K%!!!), Marty Gantt.


All of the stats provided above are excluding the stats from the previous day. I preferrably use FanGraphs as source for the stats. Click on each stat for its explanation:


  1. Any outfielders moving to Bowling Green, while Sale and Carter are on DL?

  2. Malm and Motter at the moment, no other moves have been made except to activate Castillo. Malm can play left and right, Motter all 3. There isn't anything extra in Charlotte to come down so it would have to come up from HV. That unfortunately means it would probably be Caminero.

    Guess it depends if Sale is ready to come off the DL soon, eligible on Friday (7/6 -> 7/13 is 7 days). If he can they can scrape by for two more games (Wed and Thurs). If not they'll have to move someone in, it's too far into the season to be carrying 3 catchers.

  3. We, in the V, kind of expect Caminero to go up. We now have 5 outfielders- Gantt, Rickard, Dixon, Epperson and Caminero.

    1. It could be him, just don't think BG fans want to see any more. He's been a little better in HV, but a .637 OPS only looks good when you compare it to the .504 he had with BG. He's good as an extra OF though since he can play all 3 OF positions. BG was just too much of a jump this year for him from Princeton last year. The recent addition of Rickard makes him expendable though, as you say.

      The HV offense is bad right now, only 3 guys are really doing anything (not counting Rickard's one game): O'Conner, Maile, and Dunn. It's still SSS, but some of these guys are pushing 100 plate appearances, so it's not that early. Gotta like that pitching though, team ERA is 2.91.

  4. Can't believe Ben Kline didn't make the main list. What kept him off he's been killing it?

    1. "Encouraging signs from short-season ball (less than 50 PA's): Benjamin Kline,..."

  5. Leonardo Reginatto, offensively, is doing well at HV.

  6. I know he is considered old for the level but Greg Sexton has really made the most of his limited playing time. Having Luna in front of him knocking the cover off the ball ahead of him isnt helping, him getting time. His fielding percentage is also much higher this year.. It is great to see him playing again.

  7. Oconner leads hv in several offensive categories. Good to see.

    1. That's very good to see. Unfortunately, though, he's also leading them in strikeouts with 26.

  8. Reginatto, is hitting well but to watch him play third is absolutely painful.. Hope he straightens that out.