Thursday, July 26, 2012

Minor League Breakdown: The Hitting Prospects

Overall state of the farm

Some trends:
  • The system as a whole has been excellent over the last week (30 wins, 13 losses). Especially Hudson Valley (perfect week) and Montgomery (5:1) have been thriving.
  • The Durham Bulls are 44:38 since a 6:18 start to the season. Their above average performance since a horrid start is driven by the Bulls excellent offense (check out the hitting-trend graph for the full season ball affiliates below). 
  • The Biscuits pitching staff - led by Alex Colome - has gone from 10th best in the league at the end of June (4.11 ERA) to 4th (3.86 ERA) now.

OPS-CH and ERA-CH stands for the OPS and ERA change since the last minor league breakdown.
  
OPS of each full season affiliate over the course of the season (OVERALL includes ALL affiliates).

Prospects stats overview

Here is the data (the horizontal black line shows you where the average Rays MiL hitter would be ... sorted by wOBA):


The following lists are no prospect rankings. They just show which players have been hot/cold and/or show positive/negative trends over the last 2-4 weeks.

Prospects on the rise
  1. Andrew Toles ... What a strong debut by this year's 3rd round pick. His performance is mostly driven by a high batting average, though. The walk-rates and power showings are below average. Nevertheless, it's very encouraging to see a high positional draft pick with a very good start to his pro career.
  2. Alejandro Segovia and Henry Wrigley ... Both have also been on the last list. Both have to be mentioned here again. Over their last 96 PA's they combined for a 1.051 OPS.
  3. Cameron Seitzer ... Steady improvements over the season make him a candidate to move up to Port Charlotte soon.
  4. Derek Dietrich ... His late June and early July struggles are behind him. A 1.044 OPS over the last 67 PA's suggest that he could be the one to take site-favourite Tyler Bortnick's place in Montgomery.
  5. Tommy Coyle ... His hot bat is one of the reasons for Hudson Valley's excellent record. 
  6. Stephen Vogt ... Like Wrigley, he is very loud knocking on the big-league door.
Honorable mentions: Josh Sale, Hak-Yu Lee, Leslie Anderson, Mayobanex Acosta, Reid Redman, Rich Thompson, Mikie Mahtook, Leonardo Reginatto, Marty Gantt.

Prospects to be falling
  1. Ryan Garko and Kyeong Kang ... After dominating AA pitching over their first 200 PA's, they only have a combined OPS of .473 over their last 89 PA's.
  2. Jeff Malm ... While still being solid over the course of the season, he has been very cold as of late (.507 OPS, .240 wOBA in 54 PA's).
  3. Oscar Hernandez and Darryl George... Two weeks ago they were on the list above this one. Since then: 39 PA's, .460 OPS, .248 wOBA (Hernandez), 33 PA's, .333 OPS, .166 wOBA (George).
  4. Brandon Allen ... Falling behind Henry Wrigley or Stephen Vogt on the depth chart with performances like that: 40 PA's, .369 OPS, .158 wOBA
  5. Justin O'Conner ... New year, same problems: High K-rates, below average BB-rates. His last 55 PA's: .403 OPS, .202 wOBA.

Glossary

All of the stats provided above are excluding the stats from the previous day. I preferrably use FanGraphs as source for the stats. Click on each stat for its explanation:

17 comments:

  1. I love the information that all of you collect and put on this website. Thank you for all of your hard work and I look forword to more excellent work all of you provide!!

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    1. You are welcome! Thank you all back for participating in discussions, sharing your opinions and showing interest in what we do!

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    2. I agree with Scott. Thank you.

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  2. Glaesmann is one of my favorite players in the system. I was there for his first game a couple nights ago to see his HR. I'm telling you, he has huge power. I was really surprised he wasn't in anyone's top 30 lists. You've got to regret that, right? Going to see the GCL Rays in Sarasota today. With maybe 15 fans and free entry, it's field of dreamy.

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    1. Glaesmann was on BurGi's list, and was #38 on our overall list. He's had a great year, no doubt, and he's a great athlete. I just worry about the strikeouts, the numbers have always been bad, but last year he was up to 37% of his plate appearances at Bowling Green. He's been better this year (23% at BG), but he was repeating at BG, so we'll just have to see how he does against FSL pitching.

      If he can keep SO% in the low 20%'s he should have a chance. Too much above that and pitchers won't give him anything good, which will cut his power numbers. I could see ranking him in the mid-20s somewhere, but I wouldn't go any higher yet. Love the year so far, but since he's repeating, want to see him do it vs FSL pitchers.

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    2. During Spring Training Glaesmann was one of the players who impressed me the most. He looked very comfortable, much different than when I saw him the previous year. Nice having him back around here!

      Been on vacation, but will be at most of the remaining home GCL games. Duran & Natera still impress me, and Cesar hit the ball well on Wednesday in the win.

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  3. Glaesman fan here again. Seitzer does deserve a promo but Wunderlich isn't real bad. I guess Wunderlich could dh more. Not sure if they want to move Dietrich to Montgomery as he wouldn't get much time at SS with Lee there. Dietrich is pretty muscle bound to be an everyday mlb ss but from what I've seen he's solid and has a very good arm. Hard to say if he would be best at 2b, ss or 3b but if he can keep the power up, 3b may be best long term. Very good player but difficult to classify. Maybe like Keppinger?

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    1. Wonder why they haven't played him any at third yet. He's played 17 games at 2B this year, but still has never been at third as a pro.

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    2. Dietrich has pretty quick feet, and has much more value as a middle infielder with his bat.

      Plus I am still on the Riccio bandwagon, he has awful stats but I think he is as solid a player as anybody on that Charlotte squad.

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  4. When is BEN KLINE gonna gets some love????

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    1. When I've mentioned him people complained. He hasn't played as much lately, since the higher picks signed and started. Still a great story to me, but in the end he's a 23.6 year-old in the GCL.

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    2. Thanks Doug that's what I was wondering. Sounds like Steve Vogt.2. He was older than everyone at each level if I remember correct. Wrigley's numbers are obviously impressive. In your opinion, is this a Hank Blalock/Dan Johnson situation where they tear up the Int. League and zero out when they get to the bigs or is Henry a ligit talent that will produce some day if called up?

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  5. Really wish they would find a way to get Segovia at bats on a daily basis. His combination of power and plate discipline is very intriguing, even if he is a tad old for the league.

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    1. Yep, last night's lineup was great: Brett 2B, Vettleson RF, Hager SS, Seitzer DH, Malm 1B, Sale LF, Rice C, Carter CF, Goeddel 3B. But Segovia for Rice would have been perfect. Tonight they DH'd Hager, had Querecuto at SS and Segovia behind the plate.

      Also, LOVE the recently added chart and the brand new graph at the top BurGi. Saw the chart last week, great summary of the past week. The new graph puts the whole season in perspective, esp for Durham. Great work!

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  6. Bit harsh on George, don't you think?! He wasn't getting much of a game back then.. I think you need to re-think that. Watch his avg rise now mate.

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