Friday, December 16, 2011

Player Trends on our Prospect Lists

I think it is a good idea to compare the combined top prospect list before the '11 draft (here) to the combined list we posted just days ago (here) in order to look at some trends. I am especially focusing on ranking changes on the lists. Before going into detail I wanted to point out that I'm only looking at players who had prospect status and have been within the organization at the time of both lists (so, I'm not looking at the '11 draftees and also not at graduated players like Alex Cobb or Desmond Jennings).
  • New on the lists:
Parker Markel (not ranked to 13th), Oscar Hernandez (18th), Felipe Rivero (24), Russ Canzler (28), Matt Bush (29), Jeff Malm (31) and Yoel Araujo (39).

Most of these players played in summer leagues or in short season ball. Therefore they haven't played (a lot) when we did our mid-season/pre-draft rankings. Their individual performances combined with more information about their stuff made them jump on our lists. Russ Canzlers IL-best 2nd half and Matt Bush showing developments in his pitchability made them also jump on at least one of the lists.
  • Big jumps up:
Enny Romero (13 --> 3), Ryan Brett (24 --> 14), Drew Vettleson (12 --> 7) and Alex Torres (8 --> 4).

That Enny Romero was able to jump from 13 mid-season to 3 post-season shows two things. First of all he became more consistent due to better command in the 2nd half of the season. Secondly it shows that the player-rankings in the system are as volatile as they have never been before. Lots of players are very difficult to compare and rank. And at this point I want to point out that we do those lists because they give a good overview of the talent in the system. They also are fun to do and for most people to look at. But, we don't judge a player by all means, we don't wish any player bad luck and we try to be as objective as we can be.
  • Not changing much:
Hak-Yu Lee (3 --> 2), Chris Archer (9 --> 8), Tim Beckham (10 --> 9), Matt Moore (1 --> 1), Derek Dietrich (19 --> 20), Brandon Guyer (7 --> 10), C.J. Riefenhauser (31 --> 35)
  • Falling back:
Alex Colome (5 --> 11), Scott Shuman (35 --> 43), Joshua Sale (6 --> 15), Nick Barnese (16 --> 25), Tyler Bortnick (17 --> 27), Luke Bailey (20 --> 31), Justin O'Conner (14 --> 30), Ty Morrison (17 --> 33), Wilking Rodriguez (22 --> 40), Albert Suarez (21 --> 40)

There is a clear trend to be seen in this category. Most of us wanted to get a bigger sample size (some of these players haven't had even played by mid-season due to injury or being in SS-ball) in order to learn more about a players' progress. Now, after the season, the sample size is bigger and the players in this category didn't show enough progress in order to stay where they were on our rankings. The exception: Tyler Bortnick. He held his excellent performance level over the full season. The influx of talent through this years' draft migh have been the main reason for him dropping down.
  • Dropping off:
Jacob Thompson (15th mid-season), Todd Glaesmann (23rd), Joseph Cruz (25), Kyle Lobstein (26), Stephen Vogt (27), Cody Rogers (27), Robinson Chirinos (29), Ian Kendall (29), Marquis Fleming (31), Brian Price (31), Jose Lobaton (34), Jesse Hahn (35), Braulio Lara (37)

I'd like to split this group up in order to explain them dropping off our lists. The Thompson/Glaesmann/Cruz/Lobstein/Rogers/Kendall/Hahn/Lara group didn't show enough in the 2nd half of the season (sometimes due to injury) in order to stay on our lists. The players of the Vogt/Chirinos/Fleming/Price/Lobaton group on the other side played extremelly well in the 2nd half and only fell off the lists due to the influx of talent through the '11 draft.


  1. I feel Thompson,Vogt,and if he's healthy, Hahn, all should be on the list somewhere.

  2. They were all just left off mine (and probably some other) list(s). They're definitely close.

  3. Did ABL All star Todd Glaessman break his hand >

  4. He unfortunately has. Hope he'll be ready come Spring Training in order to continue on his stellar performance in the ABL.

  5. What about Matt Spann