Monday, December 5, 2011

Personal Top 30 List Week - Jake Larsen

Each day this week we'll be running a personal top 30 prospect list from someone at the site. Batting leadoff is Jake Larsen:

1. Matt Moore
2. Hak-Ju Lee
3. Enny Romero
4. Taylor Guerrieri
5. Alex Torres
6. Drew Vettleson
7. Mikie Mahtook
8. Tim Beckham
9. Ryan Brett
10. Brandon Guyer

11. Oscar Hernandez
12. Tyler Goeddel
13. Alex Colome
14. Jake Hager
15. Chris Archer
16. Lenny Linsky
17. Josh Sale
18. Brandon Martin
19. Justin O'Conner
20. Cameron Seitzer

21. Parker Markel
22. Tyler Bortnick
23. CJ Reifenhauser
24. Luke Bailey
25. John Alexander
26. Blake Snell
27. Yoel Araujo
28. James Harris
29. Johnny Eierman
30. Scott Shuman
31. Jesse Hahn


  1. Luke Bailey, he of 32.6% K and 6.6% BB, at #24 yet Jeff Malm doesn't make top 31?

  2. This is what I have learned from these list year after year. These list are the opinions of guys that "love" baseball. They are not rays affliated(never thought they were just had to remember that when reading the list ;)) and they are obviously going to pick guys from the 1 to 5th round (maybe a few rounds after and I know Jeff Malm was a high round guy im just saying) simply because those guys are their safest bet. It is an opinion list so it doesn't mean anything. It is their opinion verse our opinion. So the guys we root for will just have to keep having good seasons year after year with no recongition from this site or any other prospect site until they make it to the show and we can laugh at them all :) hehe

    ***I am not being rude/disrespectful to any of the writers at Rays Prospects (I am simply stating the truth) I choose to use this site, if I wanted to go elsewhere I would, but I enjoy reading your guys stuff.

  3. Can't believe James Harris is on thi s list, especially after thr rookie season he had. But I guess you're right, where you are selected in the draft is all that matters to make these lists.

  4. They decide who is and who isn't a prospect on what criteria? I know its a site of opinions but please tell what the opinions are derived from concerning hitters and pitchers and not bonus's. Unless you have seen these boys play how do you make your accessments...talking to scouts, tracking games or do you have insider info!

  5. It's a combination of tools, projection, and production, like all prospect lists. Of course people are going to have different opinions.

  6. Funny you say that. You obvious haven't seen some of these players play, yet they are on you list of Top 31. Guerreri hasn't thrown a single pitch in professional ball yet he's on the list. Where is the production. Harris hit what,. 193 in rookie ball. Where is the production? It's all about where they were drafted.

  7. How do you leave Dietrich off this list?! The guy beasted the Midwest League

  8. Saying a prospect list is simply a matter of opinion is meaningless. There are opinions, and then there are informed opinions.

    I read this site regularly, and the writers access many different sources to arrive at their informed opinions. Over time, they discuss the merits and weaknesses of all the prospects they name on these lists. This is simply a composite for the moment.

    I am curious about Dietrich also, by the way. Perhaps it is an oversight, or perhaps Jake has a reason. That discussion may yet take place.

    In any case, anyone can find example of hyped prospects who flopped despite being held in high regard by respected analysts. And also successful players who never made lists. There are no perfect prognostication systems. But intelligent sites, such as this one, can provide worthwhile insight into who is more likely to succeed, and it is blather to dismiss what they say as simply their opinion.

    Better instead to engage in discussion to discover the criteria being used and the reasons for choices.

  9. I agree with Robert with his comment. IMO Dietrich is going to be in the bigs by 2014 with the Rays he has a better bat then half the guys ranked on the list. His defense needs help but thats it...

  10. haha i crack up every time i read these list. if they arent on the 40 man they arent a prospect!

  11. What we need are two lists, one showing the high bonus draft picks, and one to show who had the great season and good numbers to prove it.

  12. I'm just going to throw this out there to all of those who are not fans of the lists often shown on this site....

    A common complaint is that Player A is better than Player B because he performed better at low levels even though Player B was a higher draft pick.

    How often do these "Player A's" become good MLB players? The answer is not often. A quick look at the Rays 2011 Opening Day Roster (only those who came through the Rays farm system) confirms this.

    Jaso: Drafted in the 12th round, yet was in the Rays Top Prospect lists quite often due to good performance as a catcher. Never was that high though, and his time at MLB confirms that was right.

    Reid Brignac: Performed well in the minors and was a top 100 prospect. A top draft pick but hasn't performed well at the MLB level.

    Longoria: Was both top pick and top performer. Great MLB player.

    Elliot Johnson: Never rated a top prospect, Johnson always performed pretty solidly. However, his performance at the MLB level makes his non-ranking look fine.

    BJ Upton: Top pick and peformed well in the minors. Done well in the majors.

    Price: Top pick and good performer in the minors. Done well at MLB level.

    Shields: This is perhaps the best argument for the complaining group. Shields never was considered an elite prospect and wasn't drafted high, though he was considered a top prospect. He has done very well at the MLB level. Still was high on the top prospect lists though.

    Davis: Did well in the minors and was a top draft pick. Always was near the top of prospect lists. Hasn't done that well at MLB level.

    McGee: A 5th round pick who performed well and recieved good rankings, being the 15th overall prospect in baseball.

    The simple answer is that 99.9% of the time, if the player isn't a guy who performs well but doesn't get rated high ever, then the player isn't MLB quality. Guys who consistently peform well at higher levels when the "weren't supposed to" get recognition. Canzler, Bortnick, and Cobb are all examples of these players.

  13. There are many reasons to deem someone a prospect. Of course, performance, especially at higher levels is significant. But so too are scouting reports, analysis of tools and the like.

    Before Strasbourg or Bryce Harper were even drafted, they were prospects. They are extreme examples, but the same holds true for David Price when he was still at Vanderbilt.

    It was and is possible that even those uber-prospects might fail. But that is not the point. A prospect-and a prospect ranking-is based on more than performance. Sometimes age/level influences a decision. In the case of Dietrich, I would not be surprised if projections about the likelihood of his future position might diminish his appeal to some analysts.

    Someone like James Harris could definitely be seen as a prospect despite his GCL stats as a 17 year old. Analysts look at his tools and work ethic and project from them. Someone else might prefer a more known quantity, such as Henry Wrigley, but it is absolutely possible to make a case that Harris is a prospect and Wrigley is not. I say "make a case", not be certain of course.

    Again, it may be guesswork or opinion, but not all guesses or opinions are equal. It it the reasoning and data behind them that make the difference, and eventually, this site always provides plenty of both to help us understand the system.

  14. So Robert you saying Dietrich will or wont make the pros?

  15. I don't know. I want to read a lot of analysts and perhaps get to see him before forming an opinion. I thought he had a solid year at Bowling Green, but he was a 21 year old in low A, and although he hit for good power, he also did not walk very much and struck out a lot.

    As far as I can tell, he offers nothing on the base paths and apparently will not remain at shortstop. If he has to play a corner position, I am not so sure his hitting makes him more than a major league reserve. If he can transition to 2B and make more contact, he might become a regular.

    Hitting 34 doubles and 22 home runs in 480 ABs is impressive. But a 21 year old in low A having a .346 OBP (bolstered by a .331 BABIP) and walking just 7.1% of the time while striking out 23.8% is not impressive. Adding his poor defense should restrain our enthusiasm.

  16. tools, projection, and production,
    Ryan Brett