Monday, December 26, 2011

Tampa Bay Rays Top 30 Prospects List

Here is our overall Top 30 Rays Prospects List. This is the same as the combined list Kevin posted a couple of weeks ago, just in a different format. The individual lists can be found here: Kevin, BurGi, Scott, and Jake. Our next updated list should come out sometime between the end of spring training and the draft in early June.

This list is always available by clicking on the 'Top Prospects' tab at the top of each page.

On a related note, I've seen some Rays prospects lists on other sites lately that have included players who are no longer eligible. Here is part of the summary of eligible 'prospects' that was posted after the season:

We use the same playing time cutoffs for prospect status as Baseball America:
130 MLB at-bats, 50 MLB innngs pitched, or 30 MLB relief appearances.
Here are the players who were prospects at the beginning of the 2011 season and how much career playing time they accrued through the end of 2011 (regular season only):

Pitchers: No Longer Eligible
Jeremy Hellickson - 225.1 innings pitched.
Alex Cobb - 52.2 innings pitched.
Cesar Ramos - 76 relief appearances.
Jake McGee - 45 relief appearances.
Brandon Gomes - 40 relief appearances.

Pitchers: Still Eligible
Jay Buente - 10 games (9 in relief) and 16.0 innings pitched.
Dane De La Rosa - 7 relief appearances and 7.1 innings pitched.
Rob Delaney - 5 relief appearances and 6.0 innings pitched.
Alex Torres - 4 relief appearances and 8.0 innings pitched.
Matt Moore - 3 games (2 in relief) and 9.1 innings pitched.

Hitters: No Longer Eligible
Desmond Jennings - 268 at-bats.
Justin Ruggiano - 195 at-bats.
Elliot Johnson - 179 at-bats.

Hitters: Still Eligible
Robinson Chirinos - 55 at-bats.
Jose Lobaton - 51 at-bats.
Brandon Guyer - 41 at-bats.
Russ Canzler - 3 at-bats.


  1. Don't you think that, as things stand now, Guyer will likely begin the season as the 4th outfielder, platoon partner, in TB?

    I don't mention Canzler because I think it more likely that the Rays find a first baseman than another outfielder. But if they don't, Canzler seems the likeliest candidate in the system now.

    But after Jennings, Upton, Joyce and Fuld, who else besides Guyer might play outfield in TB?

  2. I was thinking Vogt or a free agent or trade acquisition as the most likely. Vogt makes sense because of the defensive flexibility and the bat seems as ready as it's going to get. With a trade or free agent who knows, but I think an OF would be more likely to come from a trade than free agency, as you said.

    Guyer and Ruggiano fall into the next group. I would hope Guyer first, but there must be some reason they keep Ruggiano on the 40-man, and he's almost 4 years older, so might give him the first shot.

    I would prefer they put Vogt at 1B, a rotating DH, and Guyer in the OF and focus on getting a starting catcher via trade. But it sounds like they are still looking to sign free agents for 1B/DH (and OF I suppose with the Beltran interest) with catcher a secondary concern.

    Barring injury I don't Canzler makes the 25-man out of spring training.

  3. Great Work!

    BTW, It seems that Felipe Rivero will pich at the BG rotation like Romero and Lara did. He is enough polished to handle A0 hitters and Rays need to promote latin arms with some hurried steps like Rivero who spent some years at VSL/DSL because of Rule 5 draft clock.

  4. No offense fellas but how 'bout a little love for Scott Shuman- you've got a lot of low minors talent on there. Like Barnese - but - A Mitch WIlliams type like Shuman who flat out throws smoke (88Ks in 51 ip) is a prospect if he ever gets just a bit more control.

    You really can't teach smoke.

  5. We ranked Shuman in both our 2011 pre-season list (as #13 pitcher) and the 2011 June pre-draft list (#35 overall), but his walk rate just skyrocketed last season. It wasn't great before 2011 either.

    2009 - 9 walks in 22.0 IP = 3.7 BB/9 = 9.7 BB% (BB/BF)
    2010 - 40 walks in 74.0 IP = 4.9 BB/9 = 12.9 BB%
    2011 - 59 walks in 51.2 IP = 10.3 BB/9 = 24.2 BB%

    I don't care how high his strikeout rate is or how low his hit rate, when you're walking 24.2% of the batters you face you are imploding. The 2010 numbers were ok, a slight increase was expected as he made the jump from Princeton up to Bowling Green. But moving up from BG to Charlotte in 2011 he just fell apart.

    I agree the strikeout rate is nice (great even), but he'll never make it out of AA with a walk rate HALF has high as it was in 2011. It's too bad too, if he could have lowered his walk rate in 2011 instead of having it blow up he might have gotten a midseason ticket to Montgomery. Entering 2012 he could have been in the mix for AAA with a late-season add to Tampa when rosters expand. He had a straight shot to the majors with his body and stuff, but it would take a major turnaround at this point to get back on that track. The good news is that he isn't old, he has good size and hasn't suffered a major injury, so with his arm he should get many chances to figure things out, look at what the Rays have done with Matt Bush. Here's hoping for a nice start for him in 2012.