6"2" 175 lbs DOB: 9/13/1988
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
2010: GCL/Bowling Green
Acquired: 2009 Draft, 7th Round, 229th Overall
After leading the Princeton offense in his debut year in 2009, Rogers looked like he might be poised for a break-out year in full-season ball. But injuries limited him to just 43 games, and his results didn't live up to expectations. He hit just .196, though avoided a truly awful batting line thanks to his power and patience.
Ranked #12 on our list last season, I noted his .303 batting average was buoyed by a sky-high .386 BABIP. His 2010 stats with Bowling Green (keep in mind, he played just 34 games with the Hot Rods, his other 9 were spent rehabbing in the GCL) aren't that much different from his 2009 Princeton stats, aside from the BABIP plummeting down to .215. His BB% increased from 9.1% to 10.6% which is pretty good. What isn't pretty good is his strikeout rate, which also rose, from 27.3% to 28.3%.
Rogers went on a home run binge as soon as he arrived with Bowling Green, parking 7 in his first 20 games. He experienced a major power outage in his final 14 games, failing to hit for an extra-base hit. He has a bit of an all-or-nothing swing, leading to high strikeout totals and stretches like his last 14 games where he hit .077/.238/.077. He remained a solid basestealer, swiping 8 bags in 10 chances.
His raw tools make him intriguing, but he has a lot of work to do, starting with getting a full season in. He has plus speed and above-average power, but a lot of swing-and-miss in him. His solid pitch recognition and patience helps to off-set that a little bit, but he doesn't project as a high-average hitter and as a result his OBP could suffer, as it did in 2010. He has star potential with his tools, but at age 22, he'll need to start putting them together. The Rays could send him back to Bowling Green, where he'd be the primary centerfielder. If they give him a promotion to Charlotte, he'll probably have to slide to a corner spot so Ty Morrison can man center. He has the range to play anywhere in the outfield, but his arm is fringe-average.
Aside from the obvious reasons for wanting to see Rogers stay healthy in 2011, a full season's worth of hitting data would be nice, since both his 2009 and 2010 season lines were greatly affected by his BABIP. I'd also like to see what sort of extra-base hit totals he posts, as 2 doubles, 2 triples, and 7 home runs screams fluke.