Monday, January 18, 2010

Top 15 Hitters: #3 Tim Beckham

Tim Beckham
6'0" 190 lbs DOB: 1/27/1990
Shortstop
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
2009: Bowling Green Hot Rods
Acquired: 2008 Draft, 1st Round, 1st Overall

After ranking #1 on our top hitters list last season, Tim Beckham's stock slipped some in 2009, and debate about his ultimate ceiling rages on.

The same problems that plagued Beckham during his pro debut with Princeton continued in Bowling Green: His strikeout and walk rates remained poor and his power was limited mainly to doubles; plus some new issues: His defense was a major concern, with a high error total and less-than-stellar scouting reports, and he was an ineffectual basestealer.

Of course, all hope isn't lost. His batting average improved over .030 points, and he smacked 33 doubles as a 19-year old in full-season ball. Scouts still like the overall talent, but it's clear he's far from a finished product. Beckham isn't performing the way a #1 pick might be expected to, but there's still a lot of upside there, and by all accounts Beckham has the work ethic and attitude to reach it.

He'll be the everyday shortstop for the Charlotte Stone Crabs in 2010. The number one thing to watch is his defense. He has the tools to remain at shortstop, but sloppy footwork and a loss of athleticism contributed to his high error total in 2009. Joe Maddon remarked that Beckham appeared in better shape in the winter workouts, which is certainly a step in the right direction.

The next thing to watch will be his plate approach. He has strong wrists and some raw power, but an over-aggressive approach leads to bad hitters' counts and swinging at bad pitches. If he can reign in his plate discipline, then his other batting numbers should improve along with it. His doubles total is a sign of his burgeoning power, though he doesn't project to be a big-time power threat.

Beckham still has the tools to reach his considerable upside, but 2010 could go a long way as to determining his status. A strong season would silence the critics and he'd emerge as a true shortstop-of-the-future, but another sub-par season and you'll start hearing the word "bust" thrown around. The good news is that he's just now turning 20 years old, and there's more than enough time for him to break through.
-- By Kevin Gengler at 11:30 PM

23 comments:

  1. great kid....but hate to say it......BUST !
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  2. I agree with the other anonymous. He is a nice guy...but...I think the only reason he's still a prospect, and keeps moving to higher level teams, is because TB has to justify all that money that was spent on him. I wish TB would go after more "experienced" college guys with their high draft picks.
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  3. I saw Beckham play all of his home games and a few on the road last year. The best part of his game is hitting but he is only average or a little below at that. Fielding, base running, and baseball IQ are way below average. I hope he gets it together and has a nice career but I sure am glad he won't be playing shortstop for the Hot Rods this year.
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  4. I think everyone is being too rough on him. The bad defense has happened to stars before, and the hitting and stealing should improve now that he lost weight.

    Is it possible for him to go from high A to AA next year?
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  5. not that I dont like Beckham, I just dont know why they picked him when there was 2 top college bats in Alvarez and Posey that could be helping right now.And seeing as we had Brignac and no other 1B's or C at the time in the system worth noting it made sense to get either of those 2.I wanted Posey most out of the 3, but I still would settled for Alvarez.When I saw that day they drafted Beckham I was quite disapointed.And look at it right now, ALvarez and Posey's stocks are up right now while Beckham's is down, just sayin
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  6. And just to add something I left out, I dont consider him a bust yet but like you say 1 more bad or average(.270 few HRs, and a lot of K's and no walks) season, and then I'll start saying bust.
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  7. Agreed, there are no 19 year old busts playing full season ball. Kevin had it right. He is far from a finished product but he is very toolsy and has a chance to be special. He was no reach as the #1 overall pick. Let the kid fill out and see what he is made of.
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  8. I'll take both sides: he's not a bust (yet), but he was a reach at #1 overall. He could still turn out to have the best career of anyone in that draft, but he still wouldn't be the best pick to me. At #1 for a team like the Rays were at the time I want the best bet to have a very good MLB career. The Rays simply can't afford $6 mil on a pick as risky as Beckham was/is.

    He still might make it, and I hope he does, but where will he play? I'm not seeing the evidence he'll stick at SS (2010 should make that more clear). 3B (Longoria) and CF (Upton or Jennings) aren't options in Tampa in the next few years. Not enough power for corner OF or 1B/DH. So 2B seems most likely. He's got the arm, but can he handle 2nd defensively regarding the footwork? Just because a guy can play short reasonably well doens't automatically mean he can handle the switch to 2nd. If the bat develops, maybe some type of super utility guy?

    Wouldn't Posey look nice in a Rays uni right about now?
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  9. I never could figure out why TB let Posey slip through their fingers. So many fans wanted TB to draft him, but I guess they saw something magical about Tim. Maybe TB will prove us wrong, but, Posey would have been ready to move on NOW...not years down the road. And, then, there's also this past draft where TB blew it, again on a high school kid....Please draft some college guys at the top this year...please.
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  10. I don't think he is a bust but I still want college first rounders from now on. How about Bryce Brentz?
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  11. Daniel BortnickJan 20, 2010 12:17 PM
    "I'll take both sides: he's not a bust (yet), but he was a reach at #1 overall."

    I agree with Doug on this one. If people want to see how a #1 pick ought to produce, look at Justin Upton with Arizona. That said, Beckham put up pretty decent numbers for a 19 year old in the SAL last year.

    Regarding Posey or Alvarez, I believe Tampa was afraid of taking those guys because of Bores. Gordon Beckham may have been a better pick (hitting wise) but it looks like Chicago might be considering him now at 3b. Tampa does not need a 3b obviously.
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  12. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=upton-001jus

    Those are Justin Uptons stats. At eighteen, he hit worse then Beckam.
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  13. The only stat Beckham really has in his favor is BA. JUpton had a more advanced approach(more walks) and a better OPS. Plus scouts still raved about him, whereas they don't as much with Beckham.
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  14. the only problem with this years draft I hear is there is not any real college depth in hitting. Most people have the Rays taking a High School bat at 17(I've seen mostly Yordy Cabrera and Austin Wilson, which I prefer Wilson of the 2)and Ive seen mixed results for 31 between college pitcher or hitter.But out of the college bats around 31 most likely as of right now Jedd Gyorko should be available and I hear he can play 2B.And can Levon's arm really shoot him up the draft so far this year?I mean there saying a early teens pick now for him!
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  15. Anyone know how this year's draft is looking? Strong or weak? I guess it's probably a little soon to tell until spring action is done.

    LeVon is another pick I could have lived without. The 2nd rounder was worth a shot, no complaints for trying. But a 1st rounder who can't even get into a state university, that had fail written all over it.

    Speaking of the draft, I'm working on an article about the Rays past drafts. It's taking a little longer than I thought due to all the data, but it should be interesting. I'm even gonna try and add some graphs and stuff like Ricky. More of a reference than an analysis, should be up in the next few days.
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  16. Does anyone ever do mock drafts here? Also, does anyone know any good sotes for it?
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  17. For mock drafts I'd suggest Baseball America and Andy Seiler: http://mlbbonusbaby.com/

    Andy has the Rays taking Yordy Cabrera, SS, Lakeland HS (FL) at #17 and Brandon Workman, RHP, Texas at #31 in his most recent projections. Check his site above for the reports on them.
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  18. And I just noticed Andy has this comment about the strength of the 2010 draft compared to 2009:

    "Talent this year is roughly the same. Very little college hitting. Tons of pitching. Lots of prep pitching talent. I’d grade it about equal as of now, which is just a tick below-average for a normal draft year."
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  19. Compare beckham's a-ball numbers at age 19 (275/328/389) with hanley's age 19 a-ball numbers (275/327/403). Granted hanley is a perfect world result, and that's really beckham's ceiling, but it's a little comforting to see he isn't the only one that has suffered all these setbacks
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  20. All this to go with 36 errors too for hanley
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  21. Not that I think the Hanley comparison is a great one but, Hanley also struck out ~40 less times and had 36 steals at age 19.

    One thing you can't see in errors is range. How is Beckhams range at short?

    FYI Hanley "broke out" at age 20. Moving all the way up to AA. Hitting over .300 with and OBP of over .360. He also had a much better season at age 18 where his OPS was in the mid .900s. Beckham really needs to show something this year.
    -Sveet
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  22. Anonymous

    Remember the kid is only 20,and I believe that he will do a great job this season as long as he stay focus and believe in himself. Tampa Bay saw something in Him!
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  23. Remember the name Justin Tate . Perfect kid, nice size, BLAZING speed!
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