Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/27

Venezuelan Winter League
Leones del Caracas 5, Cardenales de Lara 4
Stephen Vogt was 1 for 4.





Dominican Winter League
Gigantes del Cibao 9, Aguilas Cibaenas 5
Nevin Ashley was 3 for 4 with a triple, RBI and 2 runs scored.
Omar Luna wsa 2 for 3.




Australian Baseball League
Melbourne Aces 14, Canberra Cavalry 8
Darryl George was 1 for 4 with a double and 2 runs scored.
Todd Glaesmann was 0 for 3.
Ty Morrison was 1 for 3 with a run scored.

Canberra Calvary 4, Melbourne Aces 1
Darryl George was 2 for 3 with a double and a run scored.
Todd Glaesmann was 2 for 4 with a double, RBI and a run scored.
Ty Morrison was 0 for 3 with a walk.




Puerto Rico Winter League
Leones de Ponce 6, Indios de Mayaguez 4
Sergio Espinosa pitched 2/3 no-hit inning with a strikeout.

Future Considerations Podcast (Episode 9: John Sickels' Rays List, Final AFL Thoughts, CF Prospects, and Baseball's New CBA)

This week, Scott and Kevin talk about John Sickels' Rays top 25 list, give their final thoughts on the Arizona Fall League, and tackle centerfield as their prospect position of the week.On the broader Major League front, they discuss baseball's new Collective Baragaining Agreement and what it means for the Rays.

Questions or comments? E-mail podcast@raysprospects.com

Music is from Isle of Q

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Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/26

Venezuelan Winter League
Tiburones de La Guaira 4, Leones del Caracas 3
Stephen Vogt was 2 for 4 with a double.

Aguilas de Zulia 2, Bravos De Margarita 0
Ryan Reid pitched a scorless inning with one hit to earn his seventh save.




Dominican Winter League
Aguilas Cibaenas 5,l Toros del Este 2
Mayo Acosta was 0 for 3.




Australian Baseball League
Melbourne Aces 7, Canberra Calvary 6 (12 innings)
Darryl George was 3 for 6 with a double, RBI and 2 runs scored.
Todd Glaesmann was 2 for 5 with 3 RBI's.
Ty Morrison was 2 for 6 with a home rune and 3 runs scored.

Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/25

Venezuelan Winter League
Leones del Caracas 7, Cardenales de Lara 3
Stephen Vogt was 3 for 5 with a walk and a run scored.





Dominican Winter League
Gigantes del Cibao 5, Aguilas Cibaenas 4
Nevin Ashley was 1 for 4 with a double.

Estrellas de Oriente 11, Toros del Este 1
Mayo Acosta was 0 for 1.




Australian Baseball League
Canberra Cavalry, Melbourne Aces (Postponed)

Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/24

Venezuelan Winter League
Leones del Caracas 6, Tigres de Aragua 1
Stephen Vogt was 1 for 4 with a 3 run homer.





Australian Baseball League
Canberra Calvary 5, Melbourne Aces 2
Darryl George pinch hit in the eighth, drew a walk.
Todd Glaesmann 3 for 4 with a doubleand an RBI.
Ty Morrison 0 for 4 with a walk and 2 runs scored.

Prospect A to Z: Juniel Querecuto

This post isn't really about Juniel Querecuto, who signed for more than $500,000 in 2009 and hit .241/.292/.303 for Hudson Valley. But shortstop is the Rays deepest position, so I just wanted to stack up how it'll look in 2012:

MLB - Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez
AAA - Tim Beckham
AA - Hak-Ju Lee
A+ - Derek Dietrich
A - Juniel Querecuto
SS-A - Jake Hager
Rk-A - Brandon Martin
GCL-A - Draftee

Once you get down to Bowling Green, it's tricky. Does Jake Hager jump up to full-season ball, letting Querecuto repeat Hudson Valley? Also, Derek Dietrich should start the year at shortstop, but does he finish there? What do you guys think?

Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/21

Dominican Winter League
Gigantes del Cibao 6, Estrellas de Oriente 0
Nevin Ashley was 0 for 3.

Chattin with Chaim Bloom, Part III

(Editor's note: Prospect A to Z will return tomorrow, but here's the third and final part of Jakes' interview with Chaim Bloom)

JL: Is everything starting to "click" for Beckham or does he still have a little more room for improvement(K/BB still worrisome, some questions about his "speed" and size lead to questions about positional changes)?

CB: There is definitely room for improvement, and knowing his drive to get better, I'm sure Tim would tell you the same thing. That said, he really got better this year, especially offensively. He's strong and the ball jumps off his bat, and as he continues to make adjustments and refine his approach, I think we'll see his numbers reflect that.

JL: Robinson Chirinos had a slow start to his year, but improved as the year went on. Is he "major league"-ready or is he still new to the position? Stories, post-trade, kept alluding to the fact that the Rays were very "high" on him and his ST results showed some possible glimpses to his future. Should his age be a worry or a possible reason to worry about how many possible valuable years that he's got to (A) make it to the majors and (B) perform there.

CB: Because of how new he is to catching, Robinson deserves a mulligan on the age question. After a great spring he got off to a poor start at Durham and it took him a while to get hot. When he's on his game he'll hit line drives all over the place. Defensively, he's getting there and he's certainly athletic enough to succeed. It's still about experience and repetition for him.

JL: With the Rule 5 draft becoming more and more important, does it make it harder for you guys to decide who makes the 40-Man rosters?

CB: Yes, but that's a good problem to have because it means we have a lot of talented players. There are a lot of factors that go into those decisions, and we lean heavily on our scouts and development staff in helping us determine the readiness of each player to stick in the big leagues if we were to leave them off our 40-man.

JL: In Matt Bush, Marquis Fleming and Scott Schuman, the Rays have 3 relief prospects with insane K-rates and Lenny Linsky isn't too far behind. What have your pitching coordinators/coaches been teaching these guys?

CB: I'm glad you mentioned our pitching coordinators -- Dick Bosman and Dewey Robinson -- because they deserve a lot of credit for where those four guys have gotten. They're all working on a number of things but with the first three, fastball command is key -- Bush and Shuman throw extremely hard and, if they execute, are really difficult to square up, while Fleming needs to get ahead in the count to allow his changeup to come into play. Our scouts saw tremendous life on Linsky's fastball and they were spot on. It's still early in his journey and we're refining his delivery so he can repeat it better. When he's on, he can make hitters look downright silly.

JL: Tyler Bortnick and Stephen Vogt are 2 guys who always light up scoresheets with crooked numbers, but never get the acclaim that they deserve. What are your thoughts on how these guys have developed and do u think there's more names in the organization of players who are overlooked due to height or lack of "stuff"/upside concerns?

CB: Both of these guys are examples of what I mentioned earlier: players who weren't high draft picks but who nonetheless are on their way to the major leagues. Vogt and Bortnick have very different profiles but they have two things in common: one, they possess outstanding will and dedication; two, they can hit! That determination, though, is very important. Often when you're a lower pick or someone with an unusual profile, you have to pass others on the depth chart and you really have to will your way to the big leagues. Now behind Bortnick we're seeing other infielders like Robby Price and Taylor Motter open some eyes and we can't wait to find out if they can do the same.

JL: What has been the highlight of your career thus far as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays Organization?

CB: It should not be a surprise that the single most memorable feeling I have had here was when Aki stepped on second base in '08 and we won the pennant. But on a more everyday level, I'm extremely fortunate in that I wake up every day excited to get to work, and the biggest reason for that is the caliber of the folks I work with, both in the office and on the field. We have so many terrific people here who deserve a ton of praise for what we've been able to accomplish.

JL: Any thoughts or comments for those who may want to follow in your footsteps and working in a baseball front office or scouting department?

CB: There are many different paths in this game, and everyone needs to blaze his or her own. There are few absolutes. In general, I would say that the more you can do to develop your skills and display your passion, the better off you will be. It's not always easy but there are many things you can do from outside of the business to learn more about it, gain experience, and separate yourself from the pack. The competition to get in is very stiff -- yet another reminder of how fortunate we are to have this opportunity. This takes persistence, hard work and sacrifice, but it's wonderful to feel so passionate about what you do for a living.

Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/20

Venezuelan Winter League
Leones del Caracas 6, Aguilas del Zulia 1
Stephen Vogt was 1 for 5.

John Sickels' Rays Top Prospects

Click for grades and comments, but here's the list:

1. Matt Moore
2. Hak-Ju Lee
3. Alex Torres
4. Alex Colome
5. Taylor Guerrieri
6. Mikie Mahtook
7. Brandon Guyer
8. Parker Markel
9. Ryan Brett
10. Drew Vettleson

11. Chris Archer
12. Enny Romero
13. Tyler Goeddel
14. Jake Hager
15. Tim Beckham
16. Oscar Hernandez
17. Granden Goetzman
18. Tyler Bortnick
19. Felipe Rivero
20. Derek Dietrich

21. Lenny Linsky
22. Nick Barnese
23. Josh Sale
24. Jeff Ames
25. Kes Carter

Thoughts?

By the way, the RaysProspects individual lists will be coming out the first full week of December.

Chattin' with Chaim Bloom, Part II

Part II focuses on compensatory picks, Kirsch's Pac-NW scouting, Pitching Vs. Positional prospects, Mikie Mahtook and HJL. Enjoy!!!

----
JL: Before 2010, the Rays had 0 compensatory picks in drafts. In the last 2 drafts, the Rays have seemingly made up for every draft with multiple extra picks. Do you believe that this is to the Rays' benefit to add extra picks to the early rounds,thus causing the budget for the Draft to rise by a few million or does it make it harder by having more players to scout on a yearly basis?

CB: The June draft is vital to our success and we were certainly glad to have as many extra picks in 2011 as we did. Of course they come with financial and logistical challenges, but they give us a chance to add a lot of talent to the system and so those are challenges that we welcome.

*

JL: It seems, on a yearly basis, that the Rays have drafted an abundance of players from the Pacific Northwest. In fact, according to some fact-checking by BurGi of Rays Prospects(cheap plug), the Rays have never had a draft in which they drafted less than 5% of their players from Washington or Oregon. In fact, 2010's draft started out with a plethora of Pac-NW players. Does Paul Kirsch know something that others don't?

CB: PK's grasp of the Northwest is as good as there is in the industry and he backs that up with a great work ethic and conviction in his opinions. When those things are in place, an area scout is going to get players, because he puts the scouting director in a position to take them. For a player to go at the top of the draft, a lot of people need to believe in his ability, but you may not even get to that point unless the area guy does his homework.

*

JL: In the last few years, it's become blindingly clear that the Rays produce pitchers like no farm system has since the Early 2000's Cubs(Prior, Wood, Cruz, Willis, Nolasco to name a few). However, Rays fans have questioned the farm system's ability to produce homegrown positional talent. Do the Rays incorporate a certain philosophy when it comes to positional talent as it appears that it does with pitchers?

CB: We try to have a method to everything that we do, whether it's with position players or pitchers. Certainly, in recent years we've been much more successful developing pitching, especially starting pitching, which is a hugely important area for us. But we've had some high-quality position players come through our system, too, and have a number of prospects now at various levels that we think have a real chance to make an impact.

*

JL: Rays fans were quite shocked when the Rays decided to add Mikie Mahtook's name to the list of Rays representative's for the Arizona Fall League. Was this due to how advanced he was believed to have already been as a hitter at the time of his draft or did the organization believe that a post-draft layoff for him would not be beneficial to his benefit?

CB: Mikie came to us as one of the most accomplished players in college baseball and, coming from the SEC, was used to a high level of play. We felt he'd be able to hold his own against the competition in Arizona and to his credit he's done even better than that. He comes to play every day, and he's had great at-bats and hit the ball hard.

*

JL: With the trade of Matt Garza, the Rays somewhat shored-up 2 positions that it was believed that the organization didn't have quality or "impactful" depth at, shortstop and catcher. Hak-Ju Lee had a very successful season at PC, but somewhat hit a bump when he got promoted to AA. Did his early-season health issues have anything to do with possible conditioning problems that may be to blame for his declines in Montgomery?

CB: Hak-Ju's still young and still growing into his body, and between that and the extreme heat of both the Port Charlotte and Montgomery summers, he was a little worn out by the end of the year. The learning experiences in the minor leagues aren't confined to the quality of the opposition -- they're also about learning what you need to do to prepare your body on a daily basis, and getting ready for the longest season -- 162, and hopefully more, big league games. It's a process, and there are going to be bumps in the road, especially for players who are young for their level.

Chattin' with Chaim Bloom, Part I

It's been awhile since I've posted here, however I shall make up for the delay in posts with a Q&A that I had with Chaim Bloom, the Rays' Assistant Director of Minor League Operations. Due to the size and content of the Q&A, I chopped it up into 3 parts. In the 1st. we will focus a bit on his beginnings at BP, thoughts on the future of the Farm system, International Scouting, Oscar Hernandez and the extreme park factors of the VSL Rays' ballpark and how it prepares our youngsters for life in the AL East.

---

• Jake: Your beginnings, unbeknownst to some, were at Baseball Prospectus. What did you do there and what style of articles did you write? Were you familiar/friends with fellow Rays front office member James Click back then?
  
• Chaim: My work there was behind the scenes at first, but I eventually got the opportunity to write articles on different topics. Everything I did at BP, and being exposed to the sharp minds that were there, helped me greatly in honing my critical thinking skills. James was a part of that group and his work was very impressive.

• JL: Since Stu's ownership took over the team, it seems that the Rays farm system has actually improved by leaps and bounds in the way things are run and how expansive it is. This is shocking, considering the past that the Rays endured pre-2008 with high-end draft picks. Without going into full detail, do you foresee anymore changes and expansions to the Rays' farm system?
  
• CB: We've emphasized repeatedly how important player development is to this organization, and that means doing everything possible to help every player in our system and not only our high picks. That's why we have as many minor league teams and instructors as we do, and why we continue to grow our investments in peripheral programs such as nutrition and mental skills. We are always looking for ways to develop more big leaguers and will continue to look for ways to improve and grow.

• JL: Inquiring minds would like to know how the Brazilian Academy is doing. Looking at VSL/DSL rosters, the word "Brazil" will pop up in hometowns of players, but do you foresee in the near future when more and more talent from Brazil starts playing in summer leagues and short-season leagues state-side?
  
• CB: Our efforts in Brazil are definitely a long-term project but, as you mention, the search for talent has begun and we look forward to it paying dividends in the years ahead.

• JL: Stepan Havilcek was an interesting signing a couple years ago, out of the Czech Republic, do you see the Rays expanding into Europe, the Pacific Rim and Australia for Int'l talent?
  
• CB: There are different challenges that come with expanding into countries outside of the US and Latin America but we can't ignore any part of the world that could potentially yield major league caliber talent. All of the areas that you mention have produced players, though on a smaller scale than the Americas, and as with Havlicek, our scouts will continue to identify young talent that has a chance, with time, to play in the big leagues.

• JL: Oscar Hernandez had an amazing season for the VSL Rays this year, posting an astounding .400 average and 20+ HRs, what were your thoughts on Oscar's year? He wasn't considered to be a "bonus baby" talent, but performed to that level.
  
• CB: Obviously, Oscar had an incredible season -- clearly the best offensive year in the history of the VSL and one of the best in Rays minor league history as well. More important to him was that we won the VSL championship -- you really couldn't have asked for more. He is still a long way off, but both his offensive and defensive tools show real promise. That was a great find by Ronnie Blanco and his scouting staff, and a great job by our coaches in Venezuela to help Oscar improve year over year as much as he did.

• JL: Also, questions around minor league message boards and blogs question the size of the Rays' Venezuelan League Ballpark, stating it's splits make it appear no bigger than a Little League ballpark with the insane amount of HRs hit out of hit and the fact that the VSL Rays have posted the league leader in HRs basically every year that the team has been in existence. Do you have any thoughts on this?
• CB: As you might guess from the park factors, we play in a hitter's park in Venezuela -- there's a short (but very high) fence in left field due to a paved road running behind the complex. The league has very few teams and also some larger parks, which makes ours look more extreme, even though center and right at our home field are very fair. The dimensions in left aren't something we can control, but the upside is that our pitchers learn very quickly that they need to keep the ball down...and they get an early preview of what it's like to pitch at Fenway Park!

Prospect A to Z Day 16: Parker Markel

Parker Markel was twice a late-round pick, selected by Detroit in the 32nd round out of high school in 2009 and again in the 39th round by the Rays in 2010, when he signed from Yavapai Junior College in Arizona. He was unheralded, as 30-something-round picks are, with inconsistent scouting reports. Here's BaseballAmerica's report on him from 2009:

Righthander Parker Markel had arm problems in the fall and was recovering from them this spring, so his stuff was down a little bit. The 6-foot-3, 210-pounder still had enough stuff get results. He was throwing just 82 mph in a fall bullpen session, but his stuff came back as the spring progressed--he touched 91 mph--and he gets a lot of sink on his fastball from his three-quarters arm slot. He could add velocity as he matures. He has clean mechanics, the ball jumps out of his hand and he competes well. He'll head to Yavapai if he doesn't sign.

And from 2010:

Righthander Parker Markel can run his fastball up to 93 mph, but he's another guy who doesn't have a clean delivery and profiles as a middle reliever.

Emphasis mine, for the obvious contradiction. But such are the ways when getting second- or third-hand information about a lesser-known guy like Markel. He signed in time to pitch 10.1 innings in the Gulf Coast, striking out 13 and walking three. Impressive, but hardly enough to call him a guy to watch. Assigned to Hudson Valley, ESPN's Keith Law happened to see one of his early-season starts and filed this report:

A 39th-round pick out of Yavapai Junior College in Arizona, Markel was 92-97 mph early in the outing with a plus slider at 81-82 and a solid-average changeup with good arm speed at 81-84, although I think the low arm slot will still work against him somewhat against left-handed hitters. There's a lot of effort in his delivery without much use of his lower half, and as a result he didn't hold the velocity through his outing, working at 91-93 in the sixth with much less bite on the slider. He's a low-3/4 slinger who doesn't stride much or get over his front side well, and that -- plus the fact that he didn't hold his stuff -- makes him more likely to be a reliever. Even then, he's a reliever with two plus pitches, an average third pitch, and an aggressive approach making him a potential asset with late-game potential.

That raised some eyebrows for sure. A quality fastball, a plus slider, AND the makings of a usable change-up? Sign me up. Law noted some issues with his stamina, arm slot, and delivery, jiving with the earlier report, but that still sounds like a heck of a prospect.

But Markel had kind of a weird overall statline. Perhaps because of his stamina issues, he was excellent in June and July before getting rocked in August and September. His ERA (3.14), BB/9 (3.6), and K/9 (6.9) are okay but nothing special. The strikeouts, in particular, don't match up with the scouting report. That's one half of the weird part, along with his low H/9 of 6.6. Guys with great stuff are generally able to post low hit rates in the minors because of their ability to get strikeouts or at least weak contact. Matt Moore's career rate, for example, is 6.1. But a rate that low generally comes with a high number of strikeouts, as logicially strikeouts cannot go for hits while batted balls can.

So I think in 2012 at least one of those stats is going the other way. If his strikeout rate stays low, expect the hits to climb. If the hit rate stays low, expect it to be because he's striking more people out. In 2010, Jake Thompson had a strikeout rate of 6.9 -- identical to Markel -- and a hit rate of 5.3, along with similar reports of quality stuff. In 2011, he got the double-whammy as his strikeout rate fell to 4.4 and the hit rate inflated to 8.9.

I fear Markel may be of a similar profile. Reports on his stuff are great, and BA rated him the #3 prospect in the NY-PL, but the lack of strikeouts are a concern. Even though stats don't matter as much at that level, it seems players with his stuff would be able to overwhelm lower-level hitters. Markel didn't show that ability; even in June and July he was fanning under a batter per inning.

But it's obviously possible that things go the other way, his strikeout rate bounces up as he continues to develop and a regression of his .248 BABIP doesn't sting too badly. He was able to clean up his delivery somewhat, but his late-season struggles, if they were due to fatigue, may be a sign pointing toward the bullpen. 2012 will be a telling season as he handles a a full-season workload.

Future Considerations Podcast (Episode 8: Early Hot Stove Moves and Rumors, Three Pitching Phenoms, More Minor League FAs, and SS Prospects)

This week, Scott and Kevin review the early off-season action including the YouTube sensation Yoenis Cespedes, the Marlins suddenly-deep pockets, the Jonathan Papelbon deal, and the Giants-Royals trade. Moving to the Rays, the guys weigh in on the Stephen Strasburg vs. Matt Moore vs. Yu Darvish debate, talk about a few more minor league free agent possibilities, and continue their weekly positional rundown with shortstop prospects.

Music is from Isle of Q

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Happy Veterans Day - And Thanks To Those Who Served

Prospect A to Z will return on Monday, so enjoy the 3-day weekend. But make sure you take a few moments to think about the men and women who've served in our armed forces, and if you know any veterans, let them know how much you appreciate their service.

Prospect A to Z Day 15: Justin O'Conner

Continuing on with our prospect per day. Today: Princeton catcher Justin O'Conner.

Justin O'Conner struck out a lot. That's probably not news to you, but it's obviously the first thing that needs to be discussed with him. After signing quickly as the 31st overall pick in 2010, O'Conner played 48 games in the Gulf Coast League to a .211/.301/.348 line - disappointing but not a disaster. Promoted to Princeton in 2011, he played in the same number of games (he had 10 more plate appearances in 2011), so let's see which way his numbers went:

Stat                2010   2011
Batting Average     .211   .157  

On-Base Percentage  .301   .234 

Slugging Percentage .348   .354 

Doubles               13      8 

Home Runs              3      9 

Walks                 18     17 

Strikeouts            46     78

He actually hit for good power when he happened to make contact as his 8 doubles and 9 home runs account for 17 of his 28 hits. But he went from striking out roughly once per game, a 24.6% K%. In 2011 that jumped 15% up to 39.%. That was third-worst in all of the minors, trailing only Juan Romero of the Indians in the AZL (43.5%) and the Red Sox' Seth Schwindenhammer in the NY-PL at 47.1%. Romero hit .225 and Schwindenhammer .213, and it's not hard to guess that a metric ton of strikeouts are going to lead to a low batting average. O'Conner wasn't helped by a .207 BABIP, but even if you bump that up, it maybe brings him over the Mendoza line.

So is there any hope for him? I think there is. O'Conner still made BA's Appalachian League top 20, because the tools that made him a first rounder -- big power, big arm -- are still there. He threw out 36% of baserunners and should be able to stick behind the dish, meaning he won't have to hit as much as if he were a third or first baseman.

While Drew Vettleson, Ryan Brett, and maybe even Josh Sale (who also struggled in Princeton, but didn't have anywhere near the swing-and-miss that O'Conner did) should be in Bowling Green next season, there's little doubt that O'Conner belongs in extended spring training to start the year and work on his swing. Then he'll likely head to Hudson Valley, where the hope is he can get his strikeouts back down to once per game and be happy with that, as he's probably never going to excel at making contact.

Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/9

Arizona Fall League
Surprise Saguaros 10, Peoria Javelinas 7 (10 innings)
Tim Beckham was 0 for 5.
Tyler Bortnick was 0 for 1 with a walk.




Venezuelan Winter League
Leones del Caracas 4, Tiburones de La Guaria 3
Jose Lobaton was 2 for 3 with a walk.





Dominican Winter League
Estrellas de Oriente 6, Leones del Escogido 5
Cole Figueroa pinch hit in the seventh, drew a walk and scored.

Tigres del Licey 5, Gigantes del Cibao 1
Elliot Johnson was 2 for 4 with a double and an RBI.




Puerto Rico Winter League
Gigantes de Carolina 3, Leones de Ponce 2
Sergio Espinosa allowed a hit to the only hitter he faced in the sixth inning.

Prospect A to Z Day 14: Nevin Ashley and the Rays Catching Situation

Continuing on with our prospect per day. Today: The Rays catching situation and Nevin Ashley.

The Rays have - once again and like nearly every other club - some big decisions to make this offseason. They have to find at least a stopgap solution for shortstop (Nick Punto + Sean Rodriguez anyone?), they have to find at least one above average bat-first player for 1B and DH (internal options for more playing time: Brandon Guyer, Russ Canzler), they should solidify their bullpen by adding some talent to the mix (Mike Gonzalez, Michael Wuertz, Yoel Zumaya, Fernando Cabrera, Josh Kinney, ...) and they have to make a decision about their catching duo for '12 and beyond.

The Rays catchers combined for only 1.3 WAR (25th in the MLB) with a wOBA of .274 (26th) and an OPS of .611 (27th; all stats from FanGraphs). Versus righties (.573 OPS, .258 wOBA; 27th) they have even been worse. The Rays now more or less have two options (the 3rd option of a stopgap backstop won't do it as there is no sure-fire starting catching prospect in the system right now). They can bring in a catcher who is able of playing 70% of the games (e.g.: Yasmani Grandal, Chris Iannetta, ...) or they can go on with what they have in-house. I'm going to look at the 2nd option. Therefore I also included Kelly Shoppach despite him not having been offered arbitration this week.

The stats in the following table are the '11 stats from fangraphs for Shoppach and Jaso and the major league equivalents (calculated with this tool) for Lobaton, Ashley, Vogt and Chirinos according to their '11 MiL numbers. The splits for these 4 players are from historical '10 data (from here) and they are not major league equivalents but the real MiL numbers from MiL-splits (the data set for '10 doesn't seem to be complement. I took it anyway in order to get a tendency). They are here in order to show the tendencies of the players.

(Click at the table for a larger view)

While the front office doesn't seem to be pleased by John Jaso's defense, the platoon splits tell me that he seems to be the only one of the six catchers who very, very likely will be on the Rays opening day roster in '12. He is the only left hander ready for the bigs (according to reports about Stephen Vogt's defensive abilities behind the plate). And even the switch hitter on the list seems to play better against lefties. Therefore, Jaso - barring a trade for or signing of an everyday catcher - seems to be a lock for the next years' roster. After that I could see any one of Shoppach, Lobaton and Chirinos on the roster. In my private roster projection for '12 I have the Rays trading for Yasmani Grandal (giving up Wade Davis+). In this scenario I'd start Grandal in AAA and begin the season with Jaso/Lobaton in the bigs.

So, if Kelly Shoppach is out of the picture, the Rays will most likely go with John Jaso and one of Jose Lobaton/Robinson Chirinos in 2012. This would mean that one of Chirinos/Lobaton, Nevin Ashley and maybe also Stephen Vogt (mainly in the OF or at DH) would play behind the plate in Durham. Both, Jose Lobaton and Robinson Chirinos, are better against lefties and therefore they'd complement John Jaso very well. This scenario indicates John Jaso getting most of the plate appearances against righties and more than half of all plate appearances.
The front office, however, is not very enthusiastic about Jaso's defense, and, therefore, I think that they will bring Kelly Shoppach back (or another catcher from outside in). The reasons are that he first of all is good against lefties, that he is better defensively than Jaso and that he was a bit unlucky in '11 and looks to be better in '12. This would mean that Shoppach would play most of the games against lefties with John Jaso playing mostly against righties. Shoppach, however, should never ever see a right handed pitcher and therefore we have the same problem again. The '11 John Jaso is not good enough in order to play in 70% of the plate appearances and Kelly Shoppach shouldn't play against a rightie. In this scenario, however, there would be a logjam in AAA as all other four catchers have proven themselves in AA (or even in AAA already).

Either way, if the Rays don't bring in an MLB ready catcher from outside, they have the same problem. They have four catchers who are ready right now for backup catching duty in the majors (Shoppach, Jaso, Lobaton, Chirinos) with another one having the bat for the majors (Vogt) and the other playing well above average defense (Nevin Ashley). Neither of them, however, seems to be able to play a starting catching role adequately. That's a logjam at a position with below average major league talent.

Therefore, - by individually looking at the catching situation and ignoring other roster moves - I hope for the Rays to trade for/sign a starting catcher. One of Jaso/Chirinos/Lobaton can play a solid backup and one of these three can be traded (in order for them to get a chance in another organization). Then Ashley, Vogt (often at DH and in the OF) and one of Jaso/Chirinos/Lobaton would man the '12 catching duties in Durham, providing very solid major league depth. If the traded for catcher needs more time in the minors (like in my scenario with Grandal who I think should play at least 1-2 months in AAA), I'd start the season with Jaso/Lobaton until this catcher is ready. What do you guys think?

Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/8

Venezuelan Winter League
Cardenales de Lara 5, Leones del Caracas 3
Jose Lobaton was 1 for 4.





Dominican Winter League
Leones del Escogido 6, Toros del Este 2
Alex Colome pitched 2 scoreless innings with 2 hits, 3 strikeouts and a walk.

Prospect A to Z Day 13: Ty Morrison

Continuing on with our prospect per day. Today: OF Ty Morrison.

Ty Morrison showed very much progress - month for month - in his full season debut in 2010. He very much showed what he can do with his excellent speed on the basepaths (58 SB, 85.2% SB%). This progress, compared with scouting reports (e.g.: here and here as well as in Kevin's Rays Prospects Guide in '11) which suggest of him being able to develop into a top-of-the-order-hitter (plus hit tool, excellent speed, average plate discipline), made me very much looking forward to his '11 season.

Unfortunately, he was hurt for the first half of the season. After that, he didn't show much development in his 67 games in the Florida State League. That's the same history (playing well in A-ball, then being hurt most of the season in A+ ball) another very talented Rays minor league center fielder (while on a much higher level, talent and production wise) had two years ago. Desmond Jennings played very well in A-ball in 2007 (.866 OPS) and then was hurt for most of '08 (only 24 games, .776 OPS). I remember myself hoping for the cautious Rays to nevertheless move him up to Montgomery in '09. And they did, with Jennings responding very well to this move. I hope - while it has to be remembered that Ty Morrison, especially considering his approach at the plate, is not Desmond Jennings II - that Morrison will be promoted to AA in '12. His hit tool is fine, his speed is fine and he even showed some power when healthy. The only - while legit - question mark is the plate discipline. I hope - and belief - that he can respond well to AA pitching and that he could follow up the progress he made in A-ball next year in Montgomery. What do you guys think? Should Morrison start in A+ or AA?