Monday, October 5, 2009

19 Leagues

Rays ProspectsThere are 19 summer professional baseball minor leagues (only including those affiliated with major league organizations, and including the Mexican League, where some of the players are on loan from affiliated teams). The Rays have 9 minor league affiliates playing in 9 of the 19 leagues.

Today I want to take a look at the type of leagues the Rays affiliates play in, are they high offense or low offense, strong pitching or weak pitching. Below are the leagues ranked by offense and pitching, which is really two ways of looking at the same thing. I chose to rank the offense by OPS rather than runs per game and pitching by ERA to try and eliminate some of the effects of poor fielding at the lower levels (more on that later).

Leagues by OPS (leagues with Rays affiliates in bold):

Rk League            Level Tms BatAge    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
1 Mexican AAA 16 30.1 .301 .373 .438 .811
2 Pacific Coast AAA 16 26.6 .272 .341 .418 .758
3 California Adv A 10 22.8 .270 .341 .417 .758
4 Pioneer Rookie 8 20.8 .273 .345 .408 .754
5 Texas AA 8 24.1 .266 .340 .391 .732
6 Venezuelan Summer ForRk 7 18.4 .265 .345 .381 .727
7 International AAA 14 27.1 .262 .328 .395 .723
8 Northwest S-S A 8 21.2 .264 .342 .380 .722
9 Eastern AA 12 24.3 .258 .332 .385 .717
10 Arizona Rookie 11 20.2 .263 .339 .379 .717
11 Carolina Adv A 8 22.8 .256 .329 .383 .712
12 Appalachian Rookie 10 20.6 .257 .328 .384 .712
13 Southern AA 10 24.5 .255 .332 .380 .711
14 Midwest A 14 21.6 .256 .329 .373 .702
15 South Atlantic A 16 21.5 .254 .324 .368 .692
16 Florida State Adv A 12 22.4 .252 .322 .363 .684
17 New York-Penn S-S A 14 21.1 .245 .320 .351 .670
18 Dominican Summer ForRk 33 18.3 .242 .340 .330 .669
19 Gulf Coast Rookie 16 19.5 .238 .316 .335 .652
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 10/3/2009.

So the Rays teams play in leagues mostly at the bottom of the list by OPS. Next by pitching ERA (from highest to lowest to match the offense table above):

Rk League            Level Tms PitAge   ERA
1 Mexican AAA 16 28.7 4.98
2 Pacific Coast AAA 16 27.0 4.51
3 California Adv A 10 23.0 4.47
4 Pioneer Rookie 8 20.9 4.44
5 Arizona Rookie 11 20.7 4.37
6 Northwest S-S A 8 21.3 4.28
7 Texas AA 8 24.0 4.22
8 Venezuelan Summer ForRk 7 18.5 4.09
9 Appalachian Rookie 10 20.3 4.08
10 Carolina Adv A 8 22.9 3.99
11 Midwest A 14 21.7 3.96
12 International AAA 14 26.9 3.92
13 Eastern AA 12 24.2 3.90
14 Southern AA 10 24.4 3.85
15 Dominican Summer ForRk 33 18.8 3.73
16 South Atlantic A 16 21.6 3.71
17 Florida State Adv A 12 23.0 3.56
18 New York-Penn S-S A 14 21.4 3.50
19 Gulf Coast Rookie 16 20.4 3.37
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 10/3/2009.

Again, the Rays teams play in the lower offense/better pitching leagues.

So what, if anything, does this mean? We all know the Rays have many more pitching prospects than hitting prospects. Is that a product of the Rays minor league teams league environments? Probably not, but maybe a better question is whether the leagues that the Rays minor leaguers play in help/hurt the development of our hitters or pitchers. Do the pitchers excel by playing in 'pitcher's leagues', and conversely, do the batters get overwhelmed? Or is it better for our hitters to face challenging environments?

Would you want the Rays really change the leagues their affiliates play in? Geography is important for transactions and scouting economy. The VSL and DSL are where they are, and the GCL and Florida State League are set by the spring training facility. So that leaves 5 teams.

At AAA, the IL makes a lot more sense than the PCL. At AA, the Southern League makes the most sense, but Eastern League is a possibility. Bowling Green is moving to the Midwest League from the Sally next year, along with Lake County, mostly due to the travel distance differences between the leagues. Smart move in my opinion. The Appy and NY-Penn also seem to make the most sense.

So long story short, we are where we should be, and where we are is in a system that favors pitchers over hitters.

I mentioned above the fielding differences between different levels. You always hear that pitchers at lower levels suffer from poor defense behind them. And it makes sense, a poor defender will either be released or moved to an easier position as they move up through the system. But is it really true at each level? To find out let's look at each of the 19 leagues by fielding percentage (I realize fielding percentage is not the most advanced defensive metric, but it's all I have for all 19 leagues, and I think it's not that bad for looking at a league as a whole as opposed to an individual player):

Rk League            Level Tms   Fld%
1 Pacific Coast AAA 16 .978
2 International AAA 14 .977
3 Mexican AAA 16 .977
4 Eastern AA 12 .976
5 Southern AA 10 .975
6 Florida State Adv A 12 .972
7 Carolina Adv A 8 .972
8 Texas AA 8 .972
9 California Adv A 10 .971
10 Midwest A 14 .969
11 South Atlantic A 16 .968
12 New York-Penn S-S A 14 .967
13 Northwest S-S A 8 .966
14 Gulf Coast Rookie 16 .963
15 Appalachian Rookie 10 .961
16 Pioneer Rookie 8 .959
17 Arizona Rookie 11 .956
18 Venezuelan Summer ForRk 7 .954
19 Dominican Summer ForRk 33 .948
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/5/2009.

Kind of amazing, other than the Texas League (and even there you have to go to four decimal places) every league is in order by level from highest to lowest. Was 2009 just a fluke? Let's look at 2008:

Rk League            Level Tms  Fld%
1 Pacific Coast AAA 16 .978
2 International AAA 14 .977
3 Mexican AAA 16 .977
4 Texas AA 8 .975
5 Southern AA 10 .975
6 Eastern AA 12 .975
7 Florida State Adv A 12 .974
8 Carolina Adv A 8 .972
9 California Adv A 10 .970
10 South Atlantic A 16 .968
11 Midwest A 14 .968
12 Northwest S-S A 8 .965
13 Pioneer Rookie 8 .964
14 New York-Penn S-S A 14 .964
15 Gulf Coast Rookie 16 .960
16 Appalachian Rookie 10 .960
17 Venezuelan Summer ForRk 8 .955
18 Arizona Rookie 9 .954
19 Dominican Summer ForRk 37 .951
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/5/2009.

Doesn't appear to be a fluke, this time only the NY-P (barely) and the Arizona League are out of order.

2 comments:

  1. Great Analysis, Doug!

    I also like the leagues the Rays are playing in. Nevertheless, the move for Bowling Green to the Midwest League is a smart one. If the Rays could move from Montgomery (while I like Montgomery) to Jacksonville - in order to generate a bigger fan base in northern Florida - I would say everything would be perfect.

    What do u think?

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  2. Thanks Burgi. Jacksonville is a nice idea, but it would depend on the Suns leaving, which is out of the Rays control. Cleveland is one org that has moved it's affiliates closer to the big league team. Their AA team has always been close, but they've added Lake County and Mahoning Valley, and moved AAA from Buffalo to Columbus. Only Kinston is very far away now (besides spring training complex in Arizona). It's great for Indians fans to be able to take a day trip to see most of their minor league teams. Can't do that with the Rays teams.

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