Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/9

Arizona Fall League
Surprise Saguaros 10, Peoria Javelinas 7 (10 innings)
Tim Beckham was 0 for 5.
Tyler Bortnick was 0 for 1 with a walk.




Venezuelan Winter League
Leones del Caracas 4, Tiburones de La Guaria 3
Jose Lobaton was 2 for 3 with a walk.





Dominican Winter League
Estrellas de Oriente 6, Leones del Escogido 5
Cole Figueroa pinch hit in the seventh, drew a walk and scored.

Tigres del Licey 5, Gigantes del Cibao 1
Elliot Johnson was 2 for 4 with a double and an RBI.




Puerto Rico Winter League
Gigantes de Carolina 3, Leones de Ponce 2
Sergio Espinosa allowed a hit to the only hitter he faced in the sixth inning.

Prospect A to Z Day 14: Nevin Ashley and the Rays Catching Situation

Continuing on with our prospect per day. Today: The Rays catching situation and Nevin Ashley.

The Rays have - once again and like nearly every other club - some big decisions to make this offseason. They have to find at least a stopgap solution for shortstop (Nick Punto + Sean Rodriguez anyone?), they have to find at least one above average bat-first player for 1B and DH (internal options for more playing time: Brandon Guyer, Russ Canzler), they should solidify their bullpen by adding some talent to the mix (Mike Gonzalez, Michael Wuertz, Yoel Zumaya, Fernando Cabrera, Josh Kinney, ...) and they have to make a decision about their catching duo for '12 and beyond.

The Rays catchers combined for only 1.3 WAR (25th in the MLB) with a wOBA of .274 (26th) and an OPS of .611 (27th; all stats from FanGraphs). Versus righties (.573 OPS, .258 wOBA; 27th) they have even been worse. The Rays now more or less have two options (the 3rd option of a stopgap backstop won't do it as there is no sure-fire starting catching prospect in the system right now). They can bring in a catcher who is able of playing 70% of the games (e.g.: Yasmani Grandal, Chris Iannetta, ...) or they can go on with what they have in-house. I'm going to look at the 2nd option. Therefore I also included Kelly Shoppach despite him not having been offered arbitration this week.

The stats in the following table are the '11 stats from fangraphs for Shoppach and Jaso and the major league equivalents (calculated with this tool) for Lobaton, Ashley, Vogt and Chirinos according to their '11 MiL numbers. The splits for these 4 players are from historical '10 data (from here) and they are not major league equivalents but the real MiL numbers from MiL-splits (the data set for '10 doesn't seem to be complement. I took it anyway in order to get a tendency). They are here in order to show the tendencies of the players.

(Click at the table for a larger view)

While the front office doesn't seem to be pleased by John Jaso's defense, the platoon splits tell me that he seems to be the only one of the six catchers who very, very likely will be on the Rays opening day roster in '12. He is the only left hander ready for the bigs (according to reports about Stephen Vogt's defensive abilities behind the plate). And even the switch hitter on the list seems to play better against lefties. Therefore, Jaso - barring a trade for or signing of an everyday catcher - seems to be a lock for the next years' roster. After that I could see any one of Shoppach, Lobaton and Chirinos on the roster. In my private roster projection for '12 I have the Rays trading for Yasmani Grandal (giving up Wade Davis+). In this scenario I'd start Grandal in AAA and begin the season with Jaso/Lobaton in the bigs.

So, if Kelly Shoppach is out of the picture, the Rays will most likely go with John Jaso and one of Jose Lobaton/Robinson Chirinos in 2012. This would mean that one of Chirinos/Lobaton, Nevin Ashley and maybe also Stephen Vogt (mainly in the OF or at DH) would play behind the plate in Durham. Both, Jose Lobaton and Robinson Chirinos, are better against lefties and therefore they'd complement John Jaso very well. This scenario indicates John Jaso getting most of the plate appearances against righties and more than half of all plate appearances.
The front office, however, is not very enthusiastic about Jaso's defense, and, therefore, I think that they will bring Kelly Shoppach back (or another catcher from outside in). The reasons are that he first of all is good against lefties, that he is better defensively than Jaso and that he was a bit unlucky in '11 and looks to be better in '12. This would mean that Shoppach would play most of the games against lefties with John Jaso playing mostly against righties. Shoppach, however, should never ever see a right handed pitcher and therefore we have the same problem again. The '11 John Jaso is not good enough in order to play in 70% of the plate appearances and Kelly Shoppach shouldn't play against a rightie. In this scenario, however, there would be a logjam in AAA as all other four catchers have proven themselves in AA (or even in AAA already).

Either way, if the Rays don't bring in an MLB ready catcher from outside, they have the same problem. They have four catchers who are ready right now for backup catching duty in the majors (Shoppach, Jaso, Lobaton, Chirinos) with another one having the bat for the majors (Vogt) and the other playing well above average defense (Nevin Ashley). Neither of them, however, seems to be able to play a starting catching role adequately. That's a logjam at a position with below average major league talent.

Therefore, - by individually looking at the catching situation and ignoring other roster moves - I hope for the Rays to trade for/sign a starting catcher. One of Jaso/Chirinos/Lobaton can play a solid backup and one of these three can be traded (in order for them to get a chance in another organization). Then Ashley, Vogt (often at DH and in the OF) and one of Jaso/Chirinos/Lobaton would man the '12 catching duties in Durham, providing very solid major league depth. If the traded for catcher needs more time in the minors (like in my scenario with Grandal who I think should play at least 1-2 months in AAA), I'd start the season with Jaso/Lobaton until this catcher is ready. What do you guys think?

Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/8

Venezuelan Winter League
Cardenales de Lara 5, Leones del Caracas 3
Jose Lobaton was 1 for 4.





Dominican Winter League
Leones del Escogido 6, Toros del Este 2
Alex Colome pitched 2 scoreless innings with 2 hits, 3 strikeouts and a walk.

Prospect A to Z Day 13: Ty Morrison

Continuing on with our prospect per day. Today: OF Ty Morrison.

Ty Morrison showed very much progress - month for month - in his full season debut in 2010. He very much showed what he can do with his excellent speed on the basepaths (58 SB, 85.2% SB%). This progress, compared with scouting reports (e.g.: here and here as well as in Kevin's Rays Prospects Guide in '11) which suggest of him being able to develop into a top-of-the-order-hitter (plus hit tool, excellent speed, average plate discipline), made me very much looking forward to his '11 season.

Unfortunately, he was hurt for the first half of the season. After that, he didn't show much development in his 67 games in the Florida State League. That's the same history (playing well in A-ball, then being hurt most of the season in A+ ball) another very talented Rays minor league center fielder (while on a much higher level, talent and production wise) had two years ago. Desmond Jennings played very well in A-ball in 2007 (.866 OPS) and then was hurt for most of '08 (only 24 games, .776 OPS). I remember myself hoping for the cautious Rays to nevertheless move him up to Montgomery in '09. And they did, with Jennings responding very well to this move. I hope - while it has to be remembered that Ty Morrison, especially considering his approach at the plate, is not Desmond Jennings II - that Morrison will be promoted to AA in '12. His hit tool is fine, his speed is fine and he even showed some power when healthy. The only - while legit - question mark is the plate discipline. I hope - and belief - that he can respond well to AA pitching and that he could follow up the progress he made in A-ball next year in Montgomery. What do you guys think? Should Morrison start in A+ or AA?

Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/7

Arizona Fall League
Phoenix Desert Dogs 4, Surprise Saguaros 3
Tim Beckham was 1 for 4.





Dominican Winter League
Toros del Este 7, Gigantes del Cibao 6
Nevin Ashley was 0 for 3.
Elliot Johnson was 0 for 5.

Prospect A to Z Day 12: Kyle Lobstein

Continuing on with our prospect per day. Today: LHP Kyle Lobstein.

Kyle Lobstein was the Rays second-round pick in 2008 and received a signing bonus of $1 million, more for his projection than his current stuff. As a junior in high school, Lobstein was throwing in the 92-94 mph range but that dipped into the 80s as a senior. He's 6-3 and athletic, so there was good reason to think he'd able to regain the velocity and maintain it when he added strength, but that hasn't happened as a pro.

He debuted in 2009 with Hudson Valley where he struck out a batter per inning, but it wasn't due to an uptick in stuff. It's not uncommon for lefties with decent command and control like Lobstein to find success at the lower levels without a good fastball, and sure enough his K/9 has fallen from 9.1 in 2009 to 7.8 with Bowling Green and 6.5 in 2011, mainly with Charlotte. The good news is that he's been able to limit the walks, and his career strikeout-to-walk rate is 2.67.

But with a fastball that's relatively straight without below-average velocity, it'll be tough to find sustained success at the upper levels. In 11 late-season innings with Montgomery, Lobstein allowed nine runs, including four home runs. He's been a flyball pitcher in his career, so the longball is always going to be a concern.

But I think there's still some hope here. He's still just 22 years old, still 6-3 and athletic, and has the ability to locate at least decently well. If he can get his fastball into even the 88-91 mph range while tightening up his command, he profiles as a back-end rotation pitcher. Of course, with the Rays glut of pitching, even if that happens he may be a reliever or a trade chip. Lobstein will be back in Montgomery to start the 2012 season, what sort of year do you see him having?

Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/6

Venezuelan Winter League
Leones del Caracas 6, Bravos de Margarita 0
Jose Lobaton was 0 for 3 with 2 walks.





Dominican Winter League
Leones del Escogido 3, Toros del Este 2
Cole Figueroa was 0 for 2.

Estrellas de Oriente 6, Gigantes del Cibao 5
Nevin Ashley was 0 for 4.
Elliot Johnson was 1 for 3 with an RBI.




Australian Baseball League
Brisbane Bandits 9, Canberra Calvary 6
Todd Glaesmann was 2 for 3 with a double, walk, stolen base and 3 runs scored.
Ty Morrison was 0 for 5.

Sydney Blue Sox 2, Melbourne Aces 0 (5 innings)
Darryl George was 0 for 1.

Future Considerations Podcast (Episode 7: Free Agency Preview, AFL Rising Stars, and Third Base Prospects)

This week, Scott and Kevin take a look at Keith Law's top 50 free agents and try to guess where the top ten will sign. Then they discuss some of the Rays free agents and arbitration eligibles along with some minor league free agents they may look into. After that, they dissect the Arizona Fall League Rising Stars game and which of the game's prospects impressed and disappointed before wrapping up with their prospect position of the week, third base.

Music is from Isle of Q

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Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/5

Arizona Fall League
AFL Rising Stars West 11, AFL Rising Stars East 2
Tyler Bortnick was 0 for 1.
Mikie Mahtook did not play.




Venezuelan Winter League
Bravos de Margarita 12, Leones del Caracas 7
Jose Lobaton was 2 for 3 with a double, home run, 3 RBI's and a run scored.





Dominican Winter League
Gigantes del Cibao 8, Toros del Este 3
Nevin Ashley was 1 for 3 with a double, walk and 2 runs scored.
Elliot Johnson was 1 for 5 with an RBI.




Australian Baseball League
Brisbane Bandits 7, Canberra Calvary 4
Todd Glaesmann was 2 for 4 with a triple and an RBI.
Ty Morrison was 0 for 5.

Canberra Calvary 5, Brisbane Bandits 4
Todd Glaesmann was 0 for 2 with a run scored.
Ty Morrison was 1 for 3 with a double, 3 RBI's and a walk.

Sydney Blue Sox 8, Melbourne Aces 6
Darryle George was 1 for 4 with a double.

Melbourne Aces 13, Sydney Blue Sox 9
Darryl George was 3 for 5 with 2 RBI's and 2 runs scored.




Puerto Rico Winter League
Criollos de Caguas 2, Leones de Ponce 0
Sergio Espinosa suffered the loss, allowed 1 run on no hits, 1 walk and a strikeout in 1/3 inning.

Arizona Fall League Rising Stars Game Tonight

The AFL Rising Stars Game is tonight at 5:05 local time (8:05 eastern) and can be seen on MLB Network, and probably streaming on mlb.com as well. Here is the complete West team roster (which includes the two Rays participating, Mikie Mahtook and Tyler Bortnick), and here's the East team.

If I had to guess, the starting infield from 3B to 1B would be Mike Olt, Nick Franklin, Jeff Gyorko, and Joe Terdoslavich, which Bortnick coming off the bench. In the outfield, I'd guess Michael Choice starts in CF and Wil Myers in RF, leaving Mahtook in the mix to start in LF.

Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/4

Arizona Fall League
Surprise Saguaros 17, Peoria Javelinas 4
Tim Beckham was 1 for 4 with a double, 2 walks and 2 runs scored.
Adam Liberatore pitched a scoreless inning with 2 hits.
Mikie Mahtook was 3 for 4 with 2 doubles, an RBI and 2 runs scored.




Venezuelan Winter League
Aguilas del Zulia 5, Tiburones de La Guaira 3
Ryan Reid pitched a scoreless inning with a strikeout to earn the save.

Navagantes del Magallanes 6, Leones del Caracas 1
Jose Lobaton was 1 for 3 with an RBI and a walk.
Daniel Mayora was 0 for 4.




Dominican Winter League
Leones del Gigantes 3, Leones del Escogido 1Nevin Ashley was 0 for 3.
Alex Colome pitched a scoreless 2/3 inning with a hit, walk and strikeout.




Australian Baseball League
Canberra Calvary 6, Brisbane Bandits 0
Todd Glaesmann was 0 for 3 with a walk and a run scored.
Ty Morrison was 1 for 3 with a walk and a stolen base.

Melbourne Aces 3, Sydney Blue Sox 2
Darryl George pinch ran in the seventh.

Minor League Free Agents 2011

Three days ago MLB granted free agency to 537 minor leaguers. Baseball America has the complete list.

As usual, there are some hidden gems in there. Lets hope the Rays find some of them as they did with e.g. Russ Canzler last year. Some names that pop out to me at first glance are Manny Corpas (maybe worth a try?), Fernando Cabrera, Jeff Clement (maybe he breaks out), J.R. Towles and Nick Johnson (if there is sth. left in the tank and if healthy). Whom of this list would you like to see in a Rays/Bulls uniform in '12?

Here is the list of the Rays' MiL free agents:

RHP: Brian Baker (AA), Joe Bateman (AAA), Lance Cormier (AA), Richard de los Santos (AAA), Deivis Mavarez (Hi A), Paul Phillips (AA), Adam Russell (AAA), Matt Torra (AAA)
2B: J.J. Furmaniak (AAA)
3B: Daniel Mayora (AAA)
SS: Rey Olmedo (AAA)
OF: John Matulia (AAA)

Puerto Rico Winter League Preview

The final sanctioned winter league kicks off play today. The Puerto Rico Baseball League starts play on November 4. The league consists of five teams wih the league champion advancing to the Caribbean Series in February.

The only Rays minor league on an opening day roster is Sergio Espinosa who will be playing for Leones de Ponce.

The roster for Senadores de San Juan has not been posted.

Prospect A to Z Day 11: Kyeong Kang and David Kubiak

This is a new feature on the site, mainly because we're still in the doldrums of prospect season and we want to get discussion going. We'll be going through the alphabet in October and November to pick one prospect a day before our top prospect coverage starts in December. There's no real rhyme or reason to who we'll talk about, and we're open to suggestions for some letters.

I have always liked Kyeong Kang as a prospect. Positional players who don't have a real weakness and who have a solid approach at the plate intrigue me. They don't even have to have one or more standout tools. And that is exactly what Kyeong Kang is. An outfield prospect with no real weaknesses, a good approach at the plate and no plus tool, but solid tools across the board.

Lets analyse his tools a bit over time. As he started playing in the Rays system in '07 (drafted in '06) I have 5 seasons of data to rely on:

(Click at the image for a larger view)

Usually players without plus tools (or players who can't put their tools together) degress when they move up the minor league levels. Especially their batting average decreases and their strikout-rate increases. Players with plus tools, however, often even get stronger with the competition. They distinguish themselves from the rest by keeping their batting average high and not striking out more despite better competition. Kyeong Kang always has been a tweener. If everything falls into place he could have enough tools to climb the latter and make it to the bigs but if he doesn't progress to his full potential he won't make it to the bigs. In the first three years of his career he was developing very well. His hit tool seemed to take off with better competition, he refined his already above average approach at the plate, he developed solid power and even used his run tool at the basepaths.

In '10, however, after moving up to Port Charlotte (and after moving up the prospect chart from being the Rays' 6th best MiL hitting prospect after '08 to #4 after '09) he seemed to hit a wall. His power and batting average diminished while his strikeout rate increased. The usual symptoms for players who are not talented enough for the competition. On the other side, you can't write off a promising prospect after one bad year. Kevin and I wrote that he has enough tools but that he needs to completely develop them (okay contact skills, developing power potential, good eye, decent speed) in order to become a major league player.

And that is what we saw this year. His approach at the plate is better than it's ever been while his power increased to the solid value it had before. His only average hit tool, however, seems to hold him back. And that very much is the key to Mr. Kang's future as a baseball player. If he can develop it enough to keep on hitting in the .260-.270 range, then he can make it to the bigs. If not, then he won't make it as the lack of a plus tool can't overcome a low batting average.

David Kubiak

In response to a reader request, I'm also taking a short (couldn't find all that much about him) look at David Kubiak. Kubiak was drafted in the 36th round of the '11 player draft (out of University of Albany). He is a very tall pitcher (6 foot 7) who pitched well in his pro debut (25.1 IP, 12.8 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 9.2 H/9, 3.26 ERA, 3.36 FIP).

While being used as a reliever in Princeton and Port Charlotte, Kubiak is used to a starting role. He set career highs for the University of Albany in innings pitched and strikeouts. So, the workload doesn't seem to be a problem. He is a hard worker who loves to play baseball and who wants to improve everyday. He tries to play the game the right way and he is eager to learn how to pitch intelligently and successfully.

With the abundance of mid-to-high 90s heat, his success comes from pitching to contact. Not having mid-90s heat right now, however, doesn't mean that he can't have it in the future. Reports (from 2006, 2011 and 2011) indicate that he should be able to add some strength to his frame. This could result in some extra-miles on his fastball, immidiately making it more probable for him to succeed as a pitcher. I'm looking forward to seeing him develop in the coming years.

Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/3

Arizona Fall League
Scottsdale Scorpions 10, Surprise Saguaros 6
Tim Beckham was 0 for 3 with a walk.
Tyler Bortnick was 2 for 3 with an RBI and 2 runs scored.




Venezuelan Winter League
Cardenales de Lara 4, Tiburones de La Guaira 3
Ray Olmedo was 0 for 3.

Tigres de Aragua 1, Leones del Caracas 0
Jose Lobaton was 1 for 3.
Daniel Mayora was 0 for 3.

Bravos de Margarita 7, Navagantes del Magallanes 5
Albert Suarez suffered the loss allowing 4 runs on 5 hits with 2 walks and a strikeout in 1 2/3 innings.

Prospect A to Z Day 10: Jake Hager

This is a new feature on the site, mainly because we're still in the doldrums of prospect season and we want to get discussion going. We'll be going through the alphabet in October and November to pick one prospect a day before our top prospect coverage starts in December. There's no real rhyme or reason to who we'll talk about, and we're open to suggestions for some letters.

Jake Hager was the Rays final true first-round selection, right before the plethora of supplemental round picks. A shortstop from a Las Vegas-area high school, he signed quickly for $963,000 and was able to get his pro career started. Unlike every other high school draftee, the Rays sent Hager to Princeton and not the Gulf Coast League. While he only hit .269/.305/.399, he impressed nonetheless playing against mainly older competition. BaseballAmerica rated him as the 7th-best prospect in the Appalachian League, behind only Drew Vettleson among Princeton players:

The third of three Rays first-round picks this year, Hager signed quickly for $963,000 and got 47 games of experience under his belt. He may lack prototype range for shortstop, but he's sure-handed and fundamentally sound, and his solid-average arm strength will allow him to play second or third base in the event of a position switch.

Even if Hager's defensive home has yet to be determined, few managers questioned his offensive potential. He has a handsy swing and knack for contact, spraying the ball around and looking to hit the ball where it's pitched. He doesn't project as a big power or stolen-base threat, but he could top out at 12-15 homers at his peak and he has solid speed.

The last Rays high school first round pick was, of course, Tim Beckham. While Beckham got more than six times Hager's signing bonus, he also signed quickly and played 46 games with Princeton (two with Hudson Valley brought him to 48 total; Hager played in 47). Beckham hit .246/.309/.350 and was assigned to Bowling Green the following year. Surely part of that is because he was the top pick in the draft, but it's got me wondering about Hager. If they liked him enough to have him in Princeton and not the GCL, is it possible he follows Beckham's footsteps? It could happen, but Juniel Querecuto played SS for Hudson Valley and is the logical choice to be promoted to the Hot Rods. Meanwhile, Hager could head for the Renegades or be re-united with much of his draft class in Princeton. The Rays will want him and Brandon Martin on different teams so each can play shortstop every day, and I think the most likely scenario is Hager at HV and Martin with Princeton.

Australian Baseball League Preview

The Australian Baseball League begins play today and will run through January 22. The league features six teams that compete in a 45 game regular season schedule. The top four teams advance to the league playoffs which features a three game format. The winner of the playoffs is awarded the Claxton Shield and an invitation to next year's Asia Series.

There are five Rays minor leaguers playing in the ABL. Here are the Rays on opening day rosters in the ABL:

• IF Darryl George (Melbourne Aces)
• OF Todd Glaesmann (Canberry Cavalry)
• OF Kevin Kiermaier (Canberry Cavalry)
• OF Ty Morrison (Canberry Cavalry)
• C Mark Thomas (Canberry Cavalry)

You can learn more about the Australian Baseball League by visiting their website.

Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/2

Arizona Fall League
Surprise Saguaros 5, Scottsdale Scorpions 4
Shane Dyer picked up the win by pitching 5 innings and allowing 2 runs on 4 hits with 3 strikeouts and 3 walks.
Kirby Yates allowed 2 runs on 3 hits with 2 strikeouts and a walk in an inning pitch to notch a save.




Venezuelan Winter League
Tiburones de La Guaira 7, Leones del Caracas 6
Jose Lobaton was 1 for 1 with an RBI double.
Daniel Mayora was 1 for 5 with a run scored.




Dominican Winter League
Aguilas Cibaenas 8, Leones del Escogido 1
Cole Figueroa was 0 for 2.

Winter League Scores and Highlights from 11/1

Arizona Fall League
Surprise Saguaros 7, Mesa Solar Sox 5
Tim Beckham was 2 for 4 with a double and a home run.
Marquis Fleming allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 2 hits with a walk in 2 innings pitched.




Venezuelan Winter League
Aguilas del Zulia 5, Tigres de Aragua 3
Ryan Reid picked up the save by throwing a scoreless 1 1/3 innings.

Leones del Caracas 14, Tiburones de La Guaira 4
Jose Lobaton was 0 for 3 with 2 walks and 2 runs scored.
Daniel Mayora was 1 for 2 with a home runs, 3 RBI's , 3 walks and 2 runs scored.




Dominican Winter League
Leones del Escogido 3, Gigantes del Cibao 2
Nevin Ashley was 0 for 3.
Alex Colome pitched 1 1/3 no-hit innings with a strikeout and a walk to earn the win.
Cole Figueroa checked into the game as a pinch runner in the eighth, did not get an at-bat.
Elliot Johnson was 1 for 4 with a walk.

Prospect A to Z Day 9: Ian Kendall

This is a new feature on the site, mainly because we're still in the doldrums of prospect season and we want to get discussion going. We'll be going through the alphabet in October and November to pick one prospect a day before our top prospect coverage starts in December. There's no real rhyme or reason to who we'll talk about, and we're open to suggestions for some letters.

I'd like to take today's prospect A-Z post to talk about the Rays supposed drafting bias towards the Pacific Northwest (that fits because Ian Kendall was drafted out of Ashland HS in Oregon). This supposed bias can be tied to pro-scout Paul Kirsch. Kirsch himself was a minor league player for 7 years after being drafted out of the University of Oregon. He then coached and managed in the minor leagues for 10 years before joining the Rays as Northwest Scouting Director in 1996. The fact that Kirsch is with the Rays scouting department since its inception gives me the opportunity to collect a solid amount of data for this mini-analysis. I'm going to compare the league average rates of how often a baseball player is drafted out of Washington or Oregon to the rates for the Rays. First I'm going to take a look at overall draft rates per state.

In the recent 10 drafts, 3.8% of all drafted players have had ties with Oregon or Washington. This means that they either were drafted out of a school from that area or born in that area. The data set is pretty consistent here with 9 of these 10 drafts having between 3.6 and 4.6% of the players from Oregon or Washington (outlier: in '06 only 2.3% were from there). The Rays, however, have not had a single draft in their franchise history, in which they drafted less than 5% of their players (I always looked at the first 20 rounds of each year) from Washington or Oregon. The average is at 8% with 26 of the 327 top 20 round selections since '96 coming from these states. The following graph compares the MLB averages over the last 10 years with the Rays averages since their participation in the draft.

So, there is a bias towards the Pacific Northwest in the Rays draft. I don't necessarily think that the only reason for that is the Rays trusting Paul Kirsch that much (while they certainly do). I also think that the fact that the Pacific Northwest is less scouted than the warm weather states like California, Texas and Florida plays a very big role in that. The Rays do their homework ... and as the graph above shows, they do it even more since the new regime took over (late '05 --> for the '06 draft). Scouting well in less scouted states is a tiny piece of the famous 2%.

Another factor I think is very interesting in this regard: The new regime much more drafts players from the Pacific Northwest in the early rounds of the draft. Since 2006 the average round a player (of the top 20 rounds) from Washington or Oregon was drafted in was 7.25 (1supplemental = 1.5 in this calculation). From 1996 to 2005 it was 12.58. The sample size (26 players), however, is very small in this matter as the following table shows.