Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Rays Prospect Lists Update

Rk   Player               JS  BA  SL  JL  AL  KG  DM   Pts
1. Desmond Jennings 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 210
2. Jeremy Hellickson 2 2 2 2 4 3 3 199
3. Wade Davis 3 3 3 4 2 2 2 198
4. Matt Moore 4 4 4 5 6 4 4 186
5. Reid Brignac 6 5 7 6 3 5 5 180
6. Tim Beckham 8 6 5 3 5 6 10 174
7t. Nick Barnese 9 10 6 8 9 8 9 158
7t. Alexander Colome 5 7 10 10 7 9 11 158
9. Kyle Lobstein 12 11 9 7 10 10 6 152
10. Alexander Torres 7 9 12 16 12 11 12 138
11. Jake McGee 18 8 8 -- 11 15 20 106
12. Kyeong Kang 14 31 13 19 15 18 8 100
13t. Alex Cobb 17 21 18 30 18 7 7 99
13t. Luke Bailey 11 12 -- 9 13 21 21 99
15. Wilking Rodriguez 10 17 -- 11 17 17 17 97
16. Matt Gorgen 20 28 16 13 28 13 14 85
17. David Newmann 19 23 15 -- 16 14 16 83
18. Matt Sweeney 15 24 19 29 8 22 18 82
19. Jason McEachern HM 25 21 15 24 12 13 77
20. Todd Glaesmann 16 16 -- 12 19 23 24 76
21. Shawn O'Malley -- 18 17 17 -- 16 23 64
22. Joseph Cruz HM 13 -- -- 25 20 15 52
23. Aneury Rodriguez 13 27 14 -- 30 -- 22 49
24. Jeff Malm HM 19 -- 14 20 24 -- 48
25. Ty Morrison HM 14 -- 24 21 25 -- 41
26t. Mitch Talbot -- -- 25 -- 14 30 19 36
26t. Fernando Perez HM 15 11 -- -- -- -- 36
28. Hector Guevara HM -- -- 20 22 19 29 35
29. Cody Rogers HM 22 -- 22 -- 28 25 28
30. Jacob Partridge HM -- -- 21 -- 27 27 19
31t. Nevin Ashley HM -- 28 18 -- -- 30 18
31t. John Jaso HM -- 22 -- 23 -- -- 18
33. Heath Rollins HM -- 20 -- 26 -- -- 17
34. Albert Suarez -- 20 -- -- 27 -- -- 15
35. Kevin James HM 30 -- 26 -- 26 -- 12
36. Jake Jefferies HM 29 -- 25 29 -- -- 11
37. Frank De Los Santos -- 26 -- -- -- -- 26 10
38t. Jeremy Hall -- -- 23 -- -- -- -- 8
38t. Cesar Perez -- -- -- 23 -- -- -- 8
40. Eduardo Morlan -- -- 24 -- -- -- -- 7
41. Dale Thayer -- -- 26 -- -- -- -- 5
42t. Zach Quate HM -- 30 -- -- 29 -- 4
42t. Darin Downs -- -- 27 -- -- -- -- 4
42t. Mike Sheridan -- -- -- 27 -- -- -- 4
45t. Victor Mateo -- -- -- -- -- -- 28 3
45t. Wester Silva -- -- -- 28 -- -- -- 3
47. Cody Cipriano -- -- 29 -- -- -- -- 2
48t. Tyler Bortnick HM -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
48t. Devin Fuller HM -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
48t. Rayner Oliveros HM -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
48t. Scott Shuman HM -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
JS is John Sickels, BA is Baseball America, SL is Stacy Long, JL is Jake Larsen, AL is Andy Leslie, KG is Kevin Gengler, and DM is me. Points are 30 for 1st, 29 for 2nd, etc. I gave one point to each Honorable Mention or "other" by Sickels.

On Mitch Talbot, JS and BA did their lists after he was traded to Cleveland, the rest of us did ours before the trade. On Fernando Perez, most of us didn't consider him eligible, some did (MLB DL time counts as service time, so I say no).

I'll update this after BA releases their #11-30. Expect Lobstein to pass Torres, and Kang (and maybe Cobb) to pass McGee in points. Let me know if there are any other lists I should add to the chart.

[2/2/10: Updated to reflect BaseballAmerica's top 30. Bumped to the top. -Kevin]


  1. Gotta take Colome over Barnese. Don't understand this Torres junk. I think Todd Glaeseman will be top 10 next year.

  2. Also, are you ever going to have like a prediction where everyone will start the season off?

  3. I'll include that in the wrap-up list/post, thanks for the suggestion.

  4. I'm looking forward to that list prediction. Thanks again for all your information. I love and appreciate this site.

  5. Barnese and Bailey CircusJanuary 16, 2010 at 9:44 AM

    OT Question
    I know that none of these guys are prospects but who do you see as odd in out in Durham? I`m assuming that one of Richards, Sheely and Johnson will play play 1B and another will DH. I don`t see any of these guy`s attempting a possistion change at this stage do you?

  6. I think they could make an MLB spot for Johnson as the platoon DH v. RHP if they are not sold on Burrell. if not, maybe they sell him back to Japan.

  7. BA's top 31 with their 2010 destination:

    1. Desmond Jennings, OF (AAA or MLB)
    2. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP (AAA)
    3. Wade Davis, RHP (MLB)
    4. Matt Moore, LHP (Hi A)
    5. Reid Brignac, SS (MLB)
    6. Tim Beckham, SS (Hi A)
    7. Alex Colome, RHP (Low A)
    8. Jake McGee, LHP (AA)
    9. Alex Torres, LHP (AA)
    10. Nick Barnese, RHP (Hi A)
    11. Kyle Lobstein, LHP (Low A)
    12. Luke Bailey, C (Delayed)
    13. Joe Cruz, RHP (Hi A)
    14. Ty Morrison, OF (Low A)
    15. Fernando Perez, OF (MLB)
    16. Todd Glaesmann, OF (Princeton)
    17. Wilking Rodriguez, RHP (Low A SS or Low A)
    18. Shawn O'Malley, SS (AA)
    19. Jeff Malm, 1B (Princeton or HV)
    20. Albert Suarez, RHP (delayed)
    21. Alex Cobb, RHP (AA)
    22. Cody Rogers, OF (Low A)
    23. David Newmann, LHP (AA)
    24. Matt Sweeney, 3B (AA)
    25. Jason McEachern, RHP (Low A)
    26. Frank De los Santos, LHP (High A)
    27. Aneury Rodriguez, RHP (AA or AAA)
    28. Matt Gorgen, RHP (AA)
    29. Jake Jefferies, C (Hi A)
    30. Kevin James, LHP (Rookie)
    31. K.D. Kang, OF (Hi A)

    Could be a long season in Durham!?! Port Charlotte should be a hot spot.

  8. I'll update this list tomorrow with the full BA rankings, unless Doug gets here first.

  9. My book hasn't arrived yet, so I'll update once I get it. But thanks for posting the list.

    Assuming this list is correct, a few thoughts:

    - McGee should be in the teens, I'm glad he was healthy in '09 but with the move to the pen and the control issues, not top 10. Now if he goes back to starting and shows control and still has his stuff post-TJS, fine. But he hasn't.

    - They like Cruz even more than I do, which is saying something.

    - Morrison seems awfully high. They had him at 28th last year.

    - Nice to see Suarez hasn't been forgotten.

    - What does Cobb have to do? How is he below a guy who hasn't reached full-season ball, had Tommy John surgery last season, and probably won't pitch much this season as he recovers (Suarez)? I understand projection, and he doesn't have dazzling stuff or strikeout rates, but he has been successful every year as he moves up. The lack of respect for Cobb just continues to amaze me. They had him 17th last year btw.

    - Newmann is also low, same reasons as Cobb, but at least I can understand a little since he hasn't had as long of a track record of success Cobb has.

    - I expected they would have Sweeney and A. Rodriguez higher, not disagreeing with the rankings, just a little suprised.

    - They join me in putting Frank DLS at 26, so obviously they know what they're doing on this one. :)

    - And Kang. 31st? He was at 27 last year, one spot ahead of Morrison. Kang puts up an .880 OPS at Bowling Green, Morrison puts up a .734 OPS at Princeton. Now Morrison goes up to 14 and Kang drops to 31. Makes perfect sense to me.

    - Where's Mayo Acosta? Surely he should be ahead of Kang (he was last year).

    All in all a mixed bag, the top 10 or so are defensible, then things get a little iffy to me.

  10. Doug, You'll see when you get to read the writeups for the guys that there does not appear to be much difference between 13-31 in terms of MLB potential. I think they like Morrison's entire resume more than Kangs and frankly judging the quality of a speed defense guy by OPS is not the best way to go. BA was as enthusiastic about Kang as I think could be expected. Callis reproduced Kang's writeup in the free section of BA's chat so I think it is OK to reprint here:

    Born in South Korea and drafted out of the same Atlanta-area high school (Parkview) that produced big leaguers Jeff Francoeur and Clint Sammons, Kang signed for $75,000 as a draft-and-follow after a year at Chattahoochee Valley (Ala.) CC. He represented the Rays in the Futures Game in 2009, when he had the best season of his career despite spending the first six weeks in extended spring training. Kang's hands generate above-average bat speed, and he makes consistent contact and drives balls into the gaps with his line-drive approach. He needs to improve his strike-zone judgment and trust his hands more consistently. A streaky player, he tends to overswing and try to muscle the ball with his shoulders when he falls into slumps. Though Kang has plus speed, he lacks instincts in the field and on the basepaths. His defense has improved considerably, but he's still just an average left fielder with a fringy arm. The Rays should have a better indication of his long-term outlook after he spends 2010 at high Class A Charlotte.

    Sounds like a guy with a chance to me.

  11. I love reading the predictions~I have a few others that could possibly be honorable mentions...or eventually make the list if they have a good year: Pitcher Josh Satow, Catcher Mark Thomas, Outfielders Chris Murrill and Jason Corder. I was glad to see Tyler Bortnick's name on the list.

  12. I like Corder. Nice arm. Like his approach and good pop in the bat. Others are further along in terms of putting things together but he is a good sleeper.

  13. I can't see why there is so much love for Torres?

  14. Scouts must be talking him up more than we think. As you can see on the list, BaseballAmerica and John Sickels both had him in the top 10, while everyone else had him in the 11-16 range. Even though I ranked him #11, I'm with you, he does seem to be getting a lot of hype that may not be warranted. His control needs to take a step forward for sure.

  15. Even though Hector Guevara has not played in the States yet, I feel he is deserving of being in our top 30.

  16. Finally got the book and read the writeups. The writeups are very good, it's just the order I disagree with.

    On Kang, I didn't mean one seasons OPS is all that matters. What I was saying is Kand dropped 4 spots from last year, while Morrison moved up 14 spots. I see nothing Morrison did that was better than Kang last year, and Kang did it over more ABs against much tougher competition. Now Morrison is younger and more athletic, but he was the same amount younger last year and was more athletic then too. Since they were roughly equal on last years list, they should at least be around equal this year, but Morrison shot up. Seems to me BA was either wrong last year (Morrison too low) or wrong this year (Morrison too high). I think it's the latter.

    On Torres, they really liked his variety of good pitches (fastball, curve, slider, and working on changeup) and his agressiveness with batters. They think the repertoire could make him a quality big league starter. Since we haven't really seen much of him I guess we'll just have to take BA and Sickels word for now and see how he looks this season. I'm skeptical, I can't think of many 5'10" 160 lb lefties who are "quality big league starters."

  17. Funny how that works out. Shuman gbets bias against him because he's a reliever (and to be fair, a 22 year old in rookie ball), but he's probably more likely to make the bigs than the 8 guys immediately in front of him. - Brick

  18. And re: Torres and control, lefties who can strike guys out and have marginal control have a pretty long history of major league success. The way I see it, if he takes a step forward in control, he can be a #2 starter type, and if he doesn't, he's still better than most back-end guys. - Brick

  19. And finally, BA's rating of Acosta last year was indefensible. It was weird then, it's even weirder now. That's not a good benchmark by which to judge other prospects. That's a good reason to mistrust Bill Ballew though, and reinforces why I stopped subscribing to BA a few years back. - Brick

  20. Hi Brick, assuming that you are you I think you are, nice to see you around.

    As to Shuman, you pointed out his down side. If it was my kid I'd rather have a Shuman than a SP with upside who may never make the bigs. A good RP at 1 or 2 million a year sounds nice. The wear and tear of being a starter, even for the extra bucks, rather have the reliever as you pointed out.

    As to Torres, as I said, I don't know enough to say much. 3 good pitches plus a CU in the works(per BA), great stuff. But lets at least see how it plays out at AA first. MLB starter? It still seems to be a reach to me. Let's just agree to get to know him a little before we decide.

    Acosta was just snark, and I think you know it (someone could prob link to KGs thoughts on that:). I also have subscribed and then lapsed from BA over the years. I think this is my 5th 'new' sub. But I like the Draft History books and the other books. Can't help that Ballew did it, and has been. If there were something better I'd tell you, or you'd tell me. BA is what it is.

    Thanks for weighing in Brick, more of you is better. Take care - Doug

  21. I am going to be in Port Charlotte for the next 2 months. I am interested in seeing future Hot Rods players. When do they have minor league games and are they at the Charlotte Sports Park?

  22. The minor league spring training games are held on the back fields of Charlotte Sports Park. The 2010 schedule has not been released yet but I will forward it along once I see it. The only minor league schedule I've seen for the Grapefruit League is that of the New York Yankees clubs and we do not play them at all this spring.

  23. Here's the best I can do to piece together the minor league schedule so far.. Rochester (Twins AAA) has been released, so I can go this far:

    Friday, March 19: AAA/AA vs Twins AAA/AA at PC (Charlotte/Bowling Green, etc would be in Fort Myers)
    Wednesday, March 24: A/below vs Twins A/below at PC (AAA/AA in Fort Myers)
    Monday, March 29: AAA/AA vs Twins AAA/AA at PC (again, A ball and below in Fort Myers)

    I'll update more as I get it.

  24. Expect a few games versus Boston, and a whole crap load versus the Orioles. As far as I've seen, for minor league games and GCL season, we will play Boston, Minnesota, and Baltimore. Cincinnati is gone, and noone is replacing them in our rotation as far as I can see.

  25. I believe you are right with the teams. If it mirrors the schedule I've seen from NYY org, the shedule will be similar to the GCL division with games against Boston, Minnestoa and Baltimore. The next closest club is the Pirates and they have been grouped with the Tampa area teams.